Discover more from Igor’s Newsletter
Excess Mortality is Worse than It Seems
52% Increase in Medical-cause Mortality among UK 25-49-year-olds?
My close relative has a childhood friend. That friend’s younger sister died suddenly, as I just learned. Nobody knows why exactly why her sister died. This is the closest that “sudden death” happened to me, and I hope for no more such personal news.
Another prominent sudden death is an influential virologist Almira Oveta Fuller, who tirelessly advocated for the approval and acceptance of Covid vaccines and was a member of the FDA VRBPAC vaccine committee. Almira Oveta Fuller died four days ago unexpectedly. Her death was unrelated to COVID-19, the Tennessee Tribune reports.
These untimely tragic deaths reminded me to touch upon excess mortality and discuss some subtleties of it. I want to cover this sad topic with some thoroughness.
I will be discussing excess mortality in the UK. The United Kingdom is an amazing country with excellent statistics available.
Excess Mortality is Worse than it Seems.
The UK currently has excess mortality of about 13-18%, depending on the selected period. Please consult the UK excess mortality presentation for details. You can also download a spreadsheet with data.
In the last three months (August, September, and October, counted only until Oct 21), the expected number of deaths was about 77,000, and the actual deaths exceeded that amount by 10,181. I tabulated this data for you here, broken down by age group:
Pull Forward Effect of Early Pandemic Deaths
The pandemic’s early stages led to the demise of numerous people who were either very old or had serious comorbidities and were more likely to die within a couple of years of the pandemic if the pandemic did not occur.
The least vaccinated country in Europe, Bulgaria, is currently experiencing reduced mortality at about -3%.
The highly vaccinated UK is also experiencing a similar effect; however, it is obscured by mortality rising for other reasons. The extent of the pull-forward effect is difficult to estimate precisely. I will use 3% in this article to be conservative.
Thus, the excess mortality of 13-16% happens on top of the pull-forward effect of -3% and is, therefore, due to a factor giving rise to a roughly 16-19% rise in mortality. Again, this is not a precise calculation, but the best I can do while staying within conservative bounds.
Many Deaths in Young People Are Non-Medical
Young people do not die a lot. When they do die, it is often due to accidents, drug overdoses, suicides, or violence, as opposed to illness.
I could not find a good chart of UK causes of death broken down by age. This presentation from the US CDC shows the top causes of death by age in the USA. The UK is a much less violent country, so the UK numbers would not match exactly, but this chart shows causes of death by age group nicely:
The colored squares are non-medical deaths. In the 25-34 and 35-44 age groups above, for example, 40,647 deaths had a medical cause, and 73,160 deaths were due to injury, suicide, homicide, etc. While being mindful that the UK is different, we can see that only 35% of deaths of 25-44-year-olds are due to medical causes.
We can see from the UK spreadsheet above that deaths rose by 12% in that age segment. Assuming that the entire increase in excess mortality is medical, medical deaths in the 25-44 group rose by 12%/35%, or by ONE THIRD! A very significant rise.
Adding back the pull-forward effect conservatively assumed to be 3%, we get 15/35=42% increase in medical deaths among 25-49-year-olds.
The causes of excess deaths have not yet been ascertained. The doctors and health experts are baffled. They have no idea what causes excess deaths. They are NOT even looking into the causes! They refuse to convene any open, impartial committee to investigate it. Despite total bafflement, health authorities and experts are only certain about one thing: it is not due to the Covid vaccine, they say.
How can they be certain that it is not due to the vaccines if they refuse to look into the causes? Are they just trying to cover up the cause instead of trying to find it?
Remember the original Covid vaccine trials. The vaccine group in the Pfizer trial saw 21 total deaths. In comparison, the placebo group saw only 17 deaths. This shows 23% excess mortality among the vaccinated people in the vaccine trial! The vaccines might — very possibly — be related to excess mortality!
What if — for just one minute — we attribute all excess deaths to Covid vaccines, just as a thought experiment? In the UK, roughly 80% of the 25-49 age group are vaccinated.
If only 80% (vaccinated subgroup) of 25 to 49-year-old adults are responsible for the rise in medical deaths that causes overall medical deaths in their age cohort to rise by 42%, then we would need medical deaths among that 80% subgroup of people to increase by 100/80 or by 25% more. So, the increase in medical deaths among only those affected (vaccinated) people subgroup is not 42% but 42*100/80, or 52%.
In other words: if we:
account only for medical deaths and remove injuries and suicides,
properly consider the pull-forward effect, and
ASSUME that Covid vaccination is the sole reason for the increase (a big assumption that represents a thought experiment),
then we would conclude that medical deaths among vaccinated 25-44-year-olds in the UK increased by 52%!
That’s a very significant increase!
This is over twice as bad as in the Covid vaccine trial and suggests that excess mortality problems worsen over time.
I had the same finding of worsening relative risk of mortality and strengthening association between mortality and vaccination, based on a comparison of many vaccinated countries:
This calculation is not precise. It cannot be done precisely because we lack the data to make it very accurate. It is not even proven to any degree of certainty. It is a result of a thought experiment and realistic modeling. We have a suggestion that, when examined closely, excess mortality among younger adults is a greater problem than it might seem at first glance.
The exact extent of this problem will only be determined after an expensive and difficult professional statistical analysis of individual-level death and vaccination data. Such data is not publicly available.
No Need to Panic
If you are disappointed and worried, I understand. I am also very concerned. Every life is important. Every death is a tragedy. Young and old lives alike are precious.
However, it also needs to be pointed out that most excess mortality, in absolute numbers, occurs among older ages, such as 65+ year-olds. Young people, fortunately, do not die all that much. Here are the UK excess deaths, broken down by age:
So, excess mortality, should it continue against our wishes, still has a limited impact on our younger generations.
We — the collective humanity — still have time to do the right thing and look at excess mortality closely and impartially.
There is no reason to panic — yet.
There is, however, every reason to sound an alarm and investigate.
Do you think that we will see an honest investigation any time soon?