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Israeli Data Explains Why Pfizer Excluded Vaccinated People from Paxlovid Trials
Paxlovid Works much WORSE in the Vaccinated and NOT AT ALL in the younger ones!
A new study from Israel tried to assess the real-world benefits of Paxlovid and tried (clumsily) to separate patients by “vaccination status”.
All patients were classified into one of two categories according to their Covid-19 immune status; participants with no prior immunity (unvaccinated or vaccinated with only one mRNA vaccine dose and also with no previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection) or participants that had already acquired prior immunity (vaccine-induced, infection-induced, or hybrid).
You can see why I think that this is a clumsy way to stratify patients: in my own mind, there is a huge difference between a no-dose patient who never received any Pfizer vaccine, and a one-dose patient who received one dose, and possibly was injured by it and declined subsequent doses. Unfortunately, we are stuck with the way this study stratifies the patients into immunity-free and immune subgroups.
For simplicity, I will still refer to them as vaccinated vs unvaccinated, but be mindful of the above caveat regarding the study’s stratification. So, without further complaining, let’s go on to the results.
What is it showing? Look at the first underlined line, “no prior immunity” (unvaccinated). You will see that for people with “no prior immunity”, Paxlovid works fairly well.
For example, for younger 40-64yo “no prior immunity” patients, Paxlovid-treated persons have only 0.21 times the risk of untreated patients. For the older over-65 years old group, the risk for Paxlovid-treated patients is only 14% of the no-Paxlovid group. For the unvaccinated (no-immunity, see discussion above), Paxlovid works a little worse than in the Pfizer-sponsored EPIC-HR trial, but still decently.
The shocker lies in the vaccinated group! Paxlovid does NOT work at all — and shows INFERIOR RESULTS — in the younger 40-64 vaccinated subgroup. In fact, the small statistical sample shows that the risk of severe outcomes in the Paxlovid group is 18% HIGHER than in the no-Paxlovid group (1.18). The sample is relatively small, but you can see that for younger vaccinated persons, Paxlovid is at best useless, and at worst, harmful.
For older vaccinated people, Paxlovid does have some effectiveness, but much more modest than advertised, and instead of the promised 89% effectiveness, those older vaccinated people only get 60% effectiveness (equivalent to the 40% hazard ratio).
The picture is telling:
In fact, the late rise in the 40-64 treatment group hints at the “Paxlovid Rebound”, which I brought up early on April 13, before any data was available, based just on a bunch of Reddit posts.
This is Why Pfizer did not Want to Include the Vaccinated
Had Pfizer included vaccinated people, the results would look something like what is underlined with BLUE line:
The results with vaccinated people included would show utter lack of effectiveness in the younger group, statistically indistinguishable from a placebo. It would show very modest effectiveness (67%, equivalent to HR of 0.33) in the older group.
Such a joke medication would probably be still approved by the FDA — they approve everything that Pfizer asks for — but the outcry from the public would probably embarrass everyone.
So, what did Pfizer do? They wisely kicked vaccinated people out of the EPIC-SR trial so that their medication would artificially look good.
Vaccinated People Problems
Try to look at this story from another angle:
Paxlovid does seem to work to help the unvaccinated 40-64 year olds
Paxlovid does NOTHING for vaccinated 40-64 year olds
What is it about vaccination that makes Paxlovid NOT work for vaccinated people? I do not have a specific answer, but this is a question that needs to be answered. What is it that vaccination turns off in the vaccinated?
What About Children?
This section of my article is by necessity more speculative. What Israeli data shows is that the younger the patients get, the more useless — if not outright harmful — Paxlovid gets for them.
What if this gets even worse for even younger patients? What if Paxlovid is actually harmful to children or young adults? It was never tested on children at all! Despite an absolute lack of clinical trial data on Paxlovid in children, the FDA recklessly approved it anyway for 12-18-year-old kids.
I am praying that no children will be harmed by Paxlovid — and if they get harmed, EUA prevents any legal liability.
Would you give Paxlovid to your children? Let us know in the comments!