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Odd "Mild Omicron" Story in South Africa
Deaths are still rising in South Africa after cases peaked Dec 18
As you know, South Africa was the first country to have a well recorded Omicron outbreak. I wrote articles about “Omicron severity” in South Africa, but it’s been a couple of months already and it is time for a recap.
Since Nov 15, there were 687,874 cases and 6,514 deaths in SA, according to Worldometer.
Cases peaked Dec 18, but deaths are STILL RISING.
If — this is an assumption — deaths stop rising tomorrow and decline similarly to how they rose (so we get the same number of deaths on the way down as there were on the way up), we get “Case Fatality Rate”
Omicron CFR = 6514*2/687874 = 1.89%.
How does this compare to the reported CFR from the Delta wave in South Africa?
Between May 3 and Dec 15, there were 1,349,229 reported cases, and 35,880 reported deaths. Dividing, we get:
Delta CFR = 2.6%.
So Omicron with its 1.89% CFR in South Africa, is “milder” than Delta with its 2.6% CFR. But not super much milder. Omicron’s severity is only 0.72 times of Delta severity.
Again, this is based on the assumption that South Africa is only having Omicron (this is a big assumption), and also on the assumption that deaths will stop rising tomorrow and we will see as many deaths on the way down as on the way up.
Regarding Omicron subvariants in South Africa: Ba2 completely took over and may be responsible for a recent uptick in cases and possibly deaths as well.
But we can see, assumptions aside, that Omicron does have delayed effects, that it is not particularly mild, and that we need not wear rose colored glasses. I wrote about delayed effects on Dec 22:
This pandemic is NOT over, the vaccinated will never acquire natural immunity, and Covid-19 is just getting started. We are not in the final chapter of the Covid story, we only went through three chapters so far. The chapters are:
Invention of Covid (complete though missing details)
Spread of it worldwide (complete)
Covid Vax “success” (definitely complete, haha)
Covid Vax FAIL and BACKLASH (being written now)
The rest of the book will be written in front of us, at least in front of the ones who stay alive. I love chaos and history unfolding.
Just to make something clear: I am against useless masks, oppressive lockdowns, and deadly Covid Vax. Despite that, I am certain that Covid is not “ending”, it is only “beginning”.
What do you think the next chapters will be?