We're being told to believe there are three viruses - alpha, delta, and omicron. Another lie. There are millions of variants. Mutation is inherent in RNA replication. We can only tell with sequencing, which is seldom done. Mutations will continue to arise, avoiding previous vaxes and adapted immunity. This virus, like all others, will continue to mutate, creating new variants, culling the weaklings, bothering the relatively healthy.
Competent medical industry would be determining why a few are vulnerable while most are not. Competent medical industry would be identifying the vulnerable and helping them improve their vulnerabilities. Competent medical industry would be focusing on therapies instead of chasing unique, temporary RNA configurations. Our medical industry seems to be competent only in selling vaccines. We really need to fix the medical industry.
Published data is designed to divert our attention from their failures. We will continue to line up for useless injections and nasal swabs until enough people recognize the scam, and demand that it stop. Apparently most of us like it, and are trained for perpetual hysteria.
I predict this will continue until November, after which the insanity will spike. Dangerous times.
"Competent medical industry would be identifying the vulnerable and helping them improve their vulnerabilities. Competent medical industry would be focusing on therapies instead of chasing unique, temporary RNA configurations." It's those points that as a community we ought to be addressing. From the very beginning we were sold on a vaccine as the answer. Trump agreed and directed to remove all impediments, unheard of ever before. Fauci had convinced Trump it was possible and we could take this huge leap into Fauci and Gates vision of vaccine factories on demand that would conquer all disease.
Our vision of immediate vaccines halted all alternative efforts and whisper campaigns arouse when Trump even suggested some. He was immediately ridiculed and the establishment embarked on a cancel campaign to remove any data or news about alternatives. Vaccines or bust. Well the vaccines ARE now a bust. What this means for the new industry of mRNA vaccine factories is anybody's guess.
Those interested in the politics of the pandemic will find Atlas "A Plague Upon Our House" informative. The white house, like the congress, was a hot bed of sedition. The reprehensible birx with her ugly scarf fetish openly defied the president, lobbying governors to oppress their subjects, with full support of equally reprehensible fauch and Redfield. If they had been fired, it would have caused an uproar in the seditious press and crazy Nancy would have undoubtedly initiated yet another impeachment show trial. America and the world were victimized by socialism, not by virus. Most of the deaths were easily avoidable but for the insanely seditious medical leadership, and insanely submissive medical industry and media propagandists. This disaster is another mass murder along side Mao, Stalin, Hitler and other historical tragedies.
Those interested in the tech of RNA vax will find Isaacson "Code Breakers" informative. It is solid science, inevitably defining our future, with a few bugs yet to be worked out. This one, however clumsily and criminally executed, was very successful. Do the math. The same hysteria about a routine virus that caused problems for a tiny fraction of the population also drives the irrational fear of a vax that only harms a similarly tiny fraction. And some are equally hysterical about other meds like hcq and ivm. Our real pandemic is hysteria, and irrationality, and ignorance.
Eventually we'll get a virus that has the contagion of omicron and lethality of ebola, and humanity's survival will depend on this technology. And on rational behavior.
The Atlas book provides a viewpoint that suggests Trump really had his hands full. A less ego driven man would have accepted the pain from firing his contrarian advisors who were undermining him. OTOH, the man was faced with an entire system working to tear him down. He threatened many rice bowls.
Had we tried to implement the GBD, many lives would have been saved. But the mantra of vaccine as the answer infected all, including Trump. Once that course was established any counters were removed be all means possible. A compliant press always enjoys a good fight in that it increases ad revenue. The moribund CDC could rise to the occasion, they were now important. Of course, they couldn't do the basics of data collection but they could develop guidelines that committees agreed might work. They ignored their own past precedents to invent old stuff that had never worked. The NIH covered over their complete lack of preparedness by citing an Obama plan for pandemics that has yet to surface and the press proclaimed no plan as if one could actually deal with the crisis that was created by poor guidelines. But the press and the public in their echo chamber created mass hysteria. Now that the vaccines are not saving us, the spin becomes amazing.
But you are right in that had we simply dealt with the vulnerable most all of this would be past us. It is a worry that if humans keep mucking about with GOF we may perfect a virus that is more contagious and more deadly. But that balance must be carefully done. Ebola kills too fast, most people don't live long enough to spread much. But make the incubation long enough so that the infected can spread the virus for a longer period without symptoms and it makes nearly everyone severely ill and we have a true bioweapon for humanity. Given all of human history it likely won't come from nature. We hold the keys to extinction. Hopefully these scientists will take more care.
We can hope Trump is wise enough to back a winner rather than run again. DeSantis is quite impressive. OTOH, perhaps Trump has learned some stuff that might make him a better man.
The Trump vs DeSantis debate is going to be interesting for 2024. If by then the question is how to restore the US economy to rude health Trump probably wins on his track record.
If the issue is COVID-23 or some continuation of the current pandemic nonsense DeSantis has the upper hand.
It's still way too early to begin handicapping the 2024 horse race.
Deace writes in Faucian Bargain that not firing the medical troika was Trump's biggest mistake. He likens it to Lincoln firing McClellan, which was widely criticized, but saved the nation. Being under constant enemy fire alters our actions, but I'm pretty sure if I had been president, those three wouldn't have survived. Nothing to do with ego, just tactics. Trump and Lincoln both had good strategies, but their generals used bad tactics. Lincoln replaced his generals, Trump replaced some, but not enough.
Trump went in with no plan to replace over 70000 staff that are presidential appointees or at the presidents leisure... He left a rearguard of the enemy in control of nearly every aspect of government.
As soon as he showed that he had no plan to deal with that, (and still doesn't even seem to have realised it) well, dang it. I loved to listen to his speeches though.
There was a big fight after WW II whether to fire the nazis or keep the trains running. You can't ever clean out all the saboteurs unless you're willing to shut the government down, which is what happens if you fire 70000. Then there's the problem with finding 70000 competent replacements. Most competent people don't want to work in DC.
You can be sure he knew how to manage, and how to fire. He had a popular TV show about that. But there are always practical logistics in every personnel decision. Ordinarily, the 70000 put patriotism ahead of politics and get the job done regardless of who in in the oval office. Recently we've been subverted by a lot of people who put their politics ahead of any loyalties. He fixed a lot of it in 4 years. He would have fixed more in 4 more years. But not all of it.
As long as propaganda media supports sedition, and we the people tolerate propaganda media, and sedition, we'll have a lot more sedition. Most governments have more direct ways of dealing with sedition. We don't. It used to work out okay, when most people put country first. Not any more. Dangerous times.
For a supposedly hard nosed NYC wild cat, his staff picks were appalling. He got played by almost everyone and again and again, chose deep state creeps for the top jobs.
He didn't have a lot of good options. Most competent people knew it would be a knife fight and didn't need the aggravation. Same with the president. Nobody who would do a good job wants the job. Absolutely crucial we subdue the radicals. We can't tolerate sedition. The nation can't survive chronic hysteria. It will be resolved one way or the other. Probably the other.
I expect the winners will declare victory with a public mandate to set things right. And the losers will rise indignantly declaring the system is broken and must be destroyed. Doesn't matter which side wins, conciliation is dead. Polling indicates congress will swing repub, which is the best outcome, providing balance to the presidential gang. But that gang is driven by ideology, not patriotism, and they have practiced violence. They will use that again. Dangerous times.
Does anyone still believe that a Republican congress with excrement like Mitt Romney or Mitch McConnell will solve anything? Our problems are way, way beyond political solutions.
Politicians draw their strength from the will if their constituents. The biggest problem in the US, and many other regions, isn't weak politicians, but weak populations.
I love your spirit so much Igor, this substack is like having a really good in-depth gossip in the pub. I’m also intrigued (if I might say so!) you’re an atheist (I think I read that you wrote this) as many people I talk to have begun a deep dive into some personal spiritual journey in order to cope with the Covid narrative. Maybe an idea of a God doesn’t belong in your love of chaos, but anyway intriguing how people are dealing with the craziness. Thank you for keeping this forum free by the way. I was a bit disappointed that Dr Malone hasn’t done so with his, he’d almost certainly get more comments and debate on his sub. I’m in the UK, unvaxxed and have lost friends and family over this (banned from the family Christmas). It is astonishing. I still find myself months into this narrative “feeling astonished” and yet ... I’m surrounded by vaxxed people I know coming down with omnibollocks.
I also hope that my predictions are wrong. I tried to explore religion and, while I am respectful of everyone who follows religion, I realized that it is not for me. Thank you for your comment. I also like the homey spirit of the discussions.
Let's set religion to one side for a moment. There are enough of the elite on the record over the last 40 years or more calling for the establishment of a "new world order" and "population reduction".
Yep. Like all good maniacs, they can't resist telling us what they have in store for us. And yes, they hate all the things that make us human. Anyone who doesn't agree should just look at Zuckerberg's face.
My aged mother told me yesterday when I suggested the possibility that we could meet in London this year that the unjabbed like me are "very, very unpopular" at the moment. Thanks, mum. Guess I'll just order my yellow star already!
7 day average shows a doubling time of ~12 days - which is an attenuated Delta rate, and with numbers so low (400 cases today) could be a single jumbo jet (though 14 day quarantine is required if no negative Covid test within 72 hours - Loophole alert). Around the holidays, any one day values are not particularly useful.
Also, (my understanding, which could be wrong) is that Japan is not prescribing IVM prophylactically (at least not officially and thus not widely), so the real thing to watch will be hospitalizations...
Dream land. Besides the mutagenic red pill and Pfizermetiv are coming to save the day! I know Canadian PO’s are already in. Profits and political donations are assured to all involved. The plebs are just an unending source of cash.
Very sad to see so many so quick to criticize Igor. Now more than ever we need critical thinkers who are willing to go out on a limb and challenge conventional thinking of people like Faucci et al. Will Igor ultimately proved to be right? I have no idea, but I welcome people like him who are willing to make us think about alternative analysis. Clearly conventional thinking is not going to get us out of this madness.
Thank you! I am secretly hoping that I am totally wrong and this will be a big nothingburger. Let us know in comments when you write something in your substack.
Perversely, that's what makes it the most significant variant to date. Having killed the pandemic panic narrative, and pushed Rochelle Walensky to come clean about PCR testing, Omicron has the potential to disrupt the "establishment" in every level of government in every country and state out there.
Peter, they could call the next variant "The Common Cold" (cue scary music, and deep-voiced voice over) and the sheep would still buy it. In fact, Omicron is the common cold according to its symptoms.
I am openly hoping you are right and all hell breaks lose. Chaos makes people feel 'alive'... Well not everyone ... many people feel fear and anxiety... too bad for them.
If we all kept quiet until we were 100% certain, all we ever could communicate would be "What happened?". Daring to say "I think this will happen, because..." is something we must allow eachother as well as reserving the right to be wrong.
The pessimist's blessing, sort of: I think this will happen, but I'll be happy if I'm wrong.
Far better than the optimists curse: I think that must happen, and if it doesn't, it must be made to happen!
Also: if Xi (Omicron) happens to cause wreck and ruin, it will be blamed on people not getting n+1 shots. If Xi (Omicron) isn't worse than the common cold it will be lauded as due to stringent vaccine-mandates. Heads I win, tails you lose is the tune of the elite. In that tune lies a lesson about the nautre of power:
Power doesn't corrupt. That is a lie made true by those denying their own propensity for rationalising their morals. Corrupt people use power for corrupt means.
The righteous does what is right, no matter personal cost or loss of profit. The corrupt hums and haws and rationalises using semantics. The corrupt blames circumstance: the righteous stands by their actions.
And the media will ignore it, unless FBI sets up another fake insurrection. Protests are ineffective if no one knows. Better to focus on November. Support rational candidates. It's our last chance to avoid violence.
Disagree about protests. Sure, the MSM will never cover them but they are good for raising morale among the troops and it's very pleasant to have a massive shout after being silenced for so long. And who knows, maybe the marches will get bigger as time goes on. As for November, I'm not sure it will change much. The US is irrevocably split and may be heading for some kind of secession. Whoever wins in Nov and in 2024 will be violently opposed by the losers.
Well, I agree with your first few paragraphs and that's about it! This essay will not age well at all. In fact, it's already out of date. Almost all data points clearly toward Omicron being a nothingburger. South Africa's peak of new cases is already well behind us, falling as fast as it rose. And you don't mention Dr. Abdullah's report on South African hospitalizations that found large majority were the result of testing all patients upon admission to hospitals for Covid regardless of why they were going to the hospital. And oodles of false positives result from this testing of asymptomatics no matter what the setting. I respect your work and your willingness to go against the grain but I think you've got this one wildly wrong. https://tamhunt.medium.com/yes-we-are-well-into-casedemic-territory-in-the-us-7f20d5aacf6e
If I end up becoming another failed blogger with stupid predictions, no one will ever notice... But what if I am right?
SA Hospitalizations show that it is not a nothingburger as far as hospitalization rate is, I wrote about it. SA has far fewer susceptible people than USA. We have 38% covid recovered and SA has what, 62?
I love that you open the floor for an interesting debate. That’s what is radically missing today…people open to hearing all sides, whether they agree or not. It’s so important to hear all the sides, all the speculation, all the possibilities. I appreciate your dedication to explore!
If Igor makes people stop and go "hmmm" how exactly is that a failure?
On my own newsletter I actually hope that people will disagree with me and debate my commentary. If folks bring facts and evidence to the table then critical thinking is alive and well.
A really big thanks. Your model captures the importance of exponential thinking, a Lesson evidently Not Learned from the pandemic to date by our public health authorities, politicians, the general public, etc.
Its deja vu all over again, but worse.
Given that the vaccines seems to reprogram natural immunity for the spike protein, your estimate of the infectable population is probably low.
Secondly, about 10% of hospitalized get debilitating long Covid which also helps overwhelm the health care system - about 10 million, who will be long term out of the workforce,
Finally I still worry about a delta wave lengthening the Omicron.
Timing-wise, it hits through the Beijing Olympics - last Olympics (Sochi) the US pressured Ukraine to try and seize Crimea.
Out of all that I read about Covid and the nonsense reaction to it, you are literally the only person saying anything like this. I find that interesting. Time will tell...
I hope you're wrong, but I fear that you are correct about the chaos that will happen in mid-January. I live in rural Canada, and it's currently -30C. Without power, we will have a real problem on our hands. Even natural gas furnaces do not operate without power.
Also, I think you have it backwards regarding testing. With the massive increase in home testing with worthless antigen tests all of those negative tests (and with oodles of false positives, which are still a small minority of all tests taken even with high numbers of false positives), the positivity rate for PCR testing is very significantly skewed upwards. Here's how: people don't report negative antigen test results to the authorities. Generally, only positive antigen tests will lead to taking a PCR test and most jurisdictions only track PCR test results. But if all of those hundreds to one negative antigen test results are ignored and that one in a hundred positive test result (whether true positive or false positive) leads to a PCR test being taken, the denominator of the positivity rate calculation is substantially reduced. And that means the positivity rate is artificially high for PCR tests, which leads to yet another major distortion in the public stats. Thoughts? I'm not sure how we could track the degree of distortion in positivity rates, but with the renewed focus on very high positivity rates it's important that we think this one through. For example, where I live in Hawaii the positivity rate is now up to 15%, very much higher than it has been in past waves. And cases are way higher than past waves too. And yet hospitalizations and deaths have barely budged, which is more strong support for casedemic.
You are absolutely right about the skew in PCR due to LFD tests. It is one more reason why public infection data cannot be trusted and why positivity of PCR tests will be skewed up.
Someone I know is having covid now, their LFD test red line went super thick almost immediately, they did not even have to wait 10 minutes in, plus 5 minutes out. I am sure it is a real positive. They did not even bother with pcr or reporting
People should always get a PCR test follow up if they test positive with an antigen test. That's in the instructions for use and is standard guidance from CDC and WHO.
If Omicron ends up as the last gasp for covid and the illness is accepted as being clinically mild for most ( we will see), the mandatory vaccine crowd is going to have a hard time giving up masks, social distancing and the shot. Some of the recent CDC/Fauci policy seems like they are just slightly trying to soften a tiny bit.
The back pedalling is because they are sensing the public is no longer trusting them. They put all their cards on a vaccine that has become less useful. In the process of vaccine promotion they actively trashed alternatives. Now what?
Everybody just wanted life to go on as it was right before this madness started. Now, governments across the planet have made it so that a major collapse is very likely. We're seeing virtual stampedes -- like that of frightened herd animals -- for testing, for hospital at the slightest possible indication of a problem. This madness, more than anything else, is what cannot be sustained. It's like driving down the wrong side of the freeway, full throttle, while blindfolded in rush hour. Just less "spectacular" in terms of immediate disaster.
As Walter White (Breaking Bad) said "Those consequences. They're coming."
Add to that you will see a continued push for vaccines. Already (Dec 30) we have Trudeau the Canadian PM saying "the only way out is vaccination" and accusing the unvaxxed of being "racist and misogynistic. Quebec province has just brought back a curfew and banned all in person church services. And people believe the propaganda so they are lining up for booster shots. The Atlantic has an article speculating about regular shots - like every 6 months. If people are stupid enough to do that, then let them go for it. What concerns me is that the mandates and passports (travel restrictions etc) will never end. To get on a plane you will have to have "your vaccines up to date". If anyone thinks this is going to end they are dreaming.
It will end. The question is what the body count and collateral damage will be. I increasingly don't give a damn about anyone who went along with this, but I would rather my own family and anyone who recognised this for the evil it was comes out in one piece.
At this point, there not only is not a "gold standard" of diagnostic testing for COVID-19, there's no good standard at all.
We are, amazingly enough, two years into a pandemic without any reliable data on how many cases we have had, ever. The true numbers could be as low as 1/10 of what's been reported.
1) you state Omicron deaths figures in UK as though that has any meaning whatsoever. It's been transparent for a very long time now that deaths "with" Covid are the vast majority of Covid deaths data, not "from" Covid. So why play into that obviously incorrect paradigm at all?
2) you also continue to ignore the overwhelming data showing that the large majority of Covid hospitalizations are incidental to any Covid diagnosis. This happens b/c all patients are tested upon admission to hospitals and before surgeries, regardless of why they are at the hospital. This leads to huge numbers of false positives. It's even been quantified well in Webb and Osburn 2021, looking at a larger SoCal pediatric (under 22 year olds) hospital, through examining by hand all of the alleged Covid hospitalizations.
These two doctors actually work at this hospital and they found after hand examination that fully 87% of Covid hospitalization patients were either incidental to Covid or only minimally related to Covid. In other words these 87% of patients were NOT in the hospital b/c of Covid. And this same logic extends to "Covid deaths," which the authors confirmed with me in private dialogue.
And this same logic also applies far more substantially to older hospital patients and deaths b/c the pediatric patients only had on average 1 comorbidity, whereas in the US the average Covid death has 4 (!!) comorbidities and is 76 years old, and almost half of them lived in nursing homes before dying with Covid. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34011567/
what are "normal levels"? We're in winter peaks when hospitalization rates nomally spike sharply (mortality and illness is sharply seasonal in temperate climate nations like the US). And with the still massive backlog of delayed operations and treatments b/c of the pandemic I don't think we have any idea what "normal" is for hospitalizations right now. And if all of these patients are being tested for Covid upon admission, as they are, then you will get a vast majority of false positives that are then labeled "covid hospitalizations" rightly or wrongly.
Ontario 🇨🇦 will soon start to break down hospitalizations from those coming in with covid vs the false positive or asymptotic via testing of everyone who is admitted. I think it’s only to make the govt look better, not because they saw reason.
This is great info! I suspect the actual total of incidental/non-causal Covid patients is far higher than 50%. Webb and Osburn found fully 87% of their pediatric patients were incidental or minimally related to Covid diagnosis (mostly false positives). And the same logic strongly suggests that this percentage will go even higher for the general population b/c comorbidities increase significantly with age (average 4 comorbidities for US "Covid deaths"): https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34011567/
This where you and me have to get creative. To find hard to find data that is reliable.
Believe it or not, I drove past a ER entrance of a major local hospital recently and plan on continuing doing so once in a while, to get a sense of the level of activity. I am familiar with that ER and visited it last summer accompanying an ill person.
The activity was considerably more now than I witnessed last July.
Remember we do have more admission in winter. As you observed when you were in the ER, some of the people are really destitute and in bad shape. The cold increases that.
Yes, hospital visits and mortality more generally is highly spiky in winter in temperate climate nations like the US and Europe. (Lockdowns simulated winter conditions in key ways in terms of immobility and lack of social support)
Well that's one small data point at one hospital -- we need to find data like that Singapore collates in terms of symptomatic/asymptomatic "cases." Which states in the US collate this data?
Even before one delves into a quantitative analysis of hospitalization or excess mortality data, there are a few baseline observations that can be reliably made.
On hospitalizations, a study of VA patients found that as many as 50-60% of hospital cases were asymptomatic or mild, and the patients had actually been admitted for other things. The situation in the UK has been largely the same
On mortality, the CDC's excess mortality projections don't align with COVID-19 waves. In particular, we have the counterintuitive situation of a respiratory disease failing to produce ANY excess death from pneumonia and respiratory illness, at a time when there is excess death (according to the CDC) due to circulatory and hypertensive illness.
Remember all the hysteria about China flu in Italy way back when all this started? Well it turns out the government (not some Italian version of Alex Jones) has downgraded it's official death rate from Covid by 97% to less than 4000.
We're being told to believe there are three viruses - alpha, delta, and omicron. Another lie. There are millions of variants. Mutation is inherent in RNA replication. We can only tell with sequencing, which is seldom done. Mutations will continue to arise, avoiding previous vaxes and adapted immunity. This virus, like all others, will continue to mutate, creating new variants, culling the weaklings, bothering the relatively healthy.
Competent medical industry would be determining why a few are vulnerable while most are not. Competent medical industry would be identifying the vulnerable and helping them improve their vulnerabilities. Competent medical industry would be focusing on therapies instead of chasing unique, temporary RNA configurations. Our medical industry seems to be competent only in selling vaccines. We really need to fix the medical industry.
Published data is designed to divert our attention from their failures. We will continue to line up for useless injections and nasal swabs until enough people recognize the scam, and demand that it stop. Apparently most of us like it, and are trained for perpetual hysteria.
I predict this will continue until November, after which the insanity will spike. Dangerous times.
"Competent medical industry would be identifying the vulnerable and helping them improve their vulnerabilities. Competent medical industry would be focusing on therapies instead of chasing unique, temporary RNA configurations." It's those points that as a community we ought to be addressing. From the very beginning we were sold on a vaccine as the answer. Trump agreed and directed to remove all impediments, unheard of ever before. Fauci had convinced Trump it was possible and we could take this huge leap into Fauci and Gates vision of vaccine factories on demand that would conquer all disease.
Our vision of immediate vaccines halted all alternative efforts and whisper campaigns arouse when Trump even suggested some. He was immediately ridiculed and the establishment embarked on a cancel campaign to remove any data or news about alternatives. Vaccines or bust. Well the vaccines ARE now a bust. What this means for the new industry of mRNA vaccine factories is anybody's guess.
Those interested in the politics of the pandemic will find Atlas "A Plague Upon Our House" informative. The white house, like the congress, was a hot bed of sedition. The reprehensible birx with her ugly scarf fetish openly defied the president, lobbying governors to oppress their subjects, with full support of equally reprehensible fauch and Redfield. If they had been fired, it would have caused an uproar in the seditious press and crazy Nancy would have undoubtedly initiated yet another impeachment show trial. America and the world were victimized by socialism, not by virus. Most of the deaths were easily avoidable but for the insanely seditious medical leadership, and insanely submissive medical industry and media propagandists. This disaster is another mass murder along side Mao, Stalin, Hitler and other historical tragedies.
Those interested in the tech of RNA vax will find Isaacson "Code Breakers" informative. It is solid science, inevitably defining our future, with a few bugs yet to be worked out. This one, however clumsily and criminally executed, was very successful. Do the math. The same hysteria about a routine virus that caused problems for a tiny fraction of the population also drives the irrational fear of a vax that only harms a similarly tiny fraction. And some are equally hysterical about other meds like hcq and ivm. Our real pandemic is hysteria, and irrationality, and ignorance.
Eventually we'll get a virus that has the contagion of omicron and lethality of ebola, and humanity's survival will depend on this technology. And on rational behavior.
The Atlas book provides a viewpoint that suggests Trump really had his hands full. A less ego driven man would have accepted the pain from firing his contrarian advisors who were undermining him. OTOH, the man was faced with an entire system working to tear him down. He threatened many rice bowls.
Had we tried to implement the GBD, many lives would have been saved. But the mantra of vaccine as the answer infected all, including Trump. Once that course was established any counters were removed be all means possible. A compliant press always enjoys a good fight in that it increases ad revenue. The moribund CDC could rise to the occasion, they were now important. Of course, they couldn't do the basics of data collection but they could develop guidelines that committees agreed might work. They ignored their own past precedents to invent old stuff that had never worked. The NIH covered over their complete lack of preparedness by citing an Obama plan for pandemics that has yet to surface and the press proclaimed no plan as if one could actually deal with the crisis that was created by poor guidelines. But the press and the public in their echo chamber created mass hysteria. Now that the vaccines are not saving us, the spin becomes amazing.
But you are right in that had we simply dealt with the vulnerable most all of this would be past us. It is a worry that if humans keep mucking about with GOF we may perfect a virus that is more contagious and more deadly. But that balance must be carefully done. Ebola kills too fast, most people don't live long enough to spread much. But make the incubation long enough so that the infected can spread the virus for a longer period without symptoms and it makes nearly everyone severely ill and we have a true bioweapon for humanity. Given all of human history it likely won't come from nature. We hold the keys to extinction. Hopefully these scientists will take more care.
I am done with Trump personally, bring on DeSantis please
We can hope Trump is wise enough to back a winner rather than run again. DeSantis is quite impressive. OTOH, perhaps Trump has learned some stuff that might make him a better man.
The fact that Trump is still pushing "his" jabs indicates that he has learnt nothing and is incapable of doing so.
The Trump vs DeSantis debate is going to be interesting for 2024. If by then the question is how to restore the US economy to rude health Trump probably wins on his track record.
If the issue is COVID-23 or some continuation of the current pandemic nonsense DeSantis has the upper hand.
It's still way too early to begin handicapping the 2024 horse race.
it is extremely difficult to still be behind him, that's for sure
Yep. I always loved Trump, he is fun and mostly speaks his mind, but his vax support made me make a tough choice.
Deace writes in Faucian Bargain that not firing the medical troika was Trump's biggest mistake. He likens it to Lincoln firing McClellan, which was widely criticized, but saved the nation. Being under constant enemy fire alters our actions, but I'm pretty sure if I had been president, those three wouldn't have survived. Nothing to do with ego, just tactics. Trump and Lincoln both had good strategies, but their generals used bad tactics. Lincoln replaced his generals, Trump replaced some, but not enough.
Trump went in with no plan to replace over 70000 staff that are presidential appointees or at the presidents leisure... He left a rearguard of the enemy in control of nearly every aspect of government.
As soon as he showed that he had no plan to deal with that, (and still doesn't even seem to have realised it) well, dang it. I loved to listen to his speeches though.
There was a big fight after WW II whether to fire the nazis or keep the trains running. You can't ever clean out all the saboteurs unless you're willing to shut the government down, which is what happens if you fire 70000. Then there's the problem with finding 70000 competent replacements. Most competent people don't want to work in DC.
You can be sure he knew how to manage, and how to fire. He had a popular TV show about that. But there are always practical logistics in every personnel decision. Ordinarily, the 70000 put patriotism ahead of politics and get the job done regardless of who in in the oval office. Recently we've been subverted by a lot of people who put their politics ahead of any loyalties. He fixed a lot of it in 4 years. He would have fixed more in 4 more years. But not all of it.
As long as propaganda media supports sedition, and we the people tolerate propaganda media, and sedition, we'll have a lot more sedition. Most governments have more direct ways of dealing with sedition. We don't. It used to work out okay, when most people put country first. Not any more. Dangerous times.
For a supposedly hard nosed NYC wild cat, his staff picks were appalling. He got played by almost everyone and again and again, chose deep state creeps for the top jobs.
He didn't have a lot of good options. Most competent people knew it would be a knife fight and didn't need the aggravation. Same with the president. Nobody who would do a good job wants the job. Absolutely crucial we subdue the radicals. We can't tolerate sedition. The nation can't survive chronic hysteria. It will be resolved one way or the other. Probably the other.
November??
Congressional elections in US.
I am so sorry, who will be counting our votes?
And who will be suppressing vote audits?
I expect the winners will declare victory with a public mandate to set things right. And the losers will rise indignantly declaring the system is broken and must be destroyed. Doesn't matter which side wins, conciliation is dead. Polling indicates congress will swing repub, which is the best outcome, providing balance to the presidential gang. But that gang is driven by ideology, not patriotism, and they have practiced violence. They will use that again. Dangerous times.
Does anyone still believe that a Republican congress with excrement like Mitt Romney or Mitch McConnell will solve anything? Our problems are way, way beyond political solutions.
Politicians draw their strength from the will if their constituents. The biggest problem in the US, and many other regions, isn't weak politicians, but weak populations.
Nope, just that posting in your vote has a remarkable effect on your health and kills all known viruses.
Why November, David? Oh, of course: the midterms. You cynic, you! :)
I love your spirit so much Igor, this substack is like having a really good in-depth gossip in the pub. I’m also intrigued (if I might say so!) you’re an atheist (I think I read that you wrote this) as many people I talk to have begun a deep dive into some personal spiritual journey in order to cope with the Covid narrative. Maybe an idea of a God doesn’t belong in your love of chaos, but anyway intriguing how people are dealing with the craziness. Thank you for keeping this forum free by the way. I was a bit disappointed that Dr Malone hasn’t done so with his, he’d almost certainly get more comments and debate on his sub. I’m in the UK, unvaxxed and have lost friends and family over this (banned from the family Christmas). It is astonishing. I still find myself months into this narrative “feeling astonished” and yet ... I’m surrounded by vaxxed people I know coming down with omnibollocks.
I hope your predictions are wrong...
I also hope that my predictions are wrong. I tried to explore religion and, while I am respectful of everyone who follows religion, I realized that it is not for me. Thank you for your comment. I also like the homey spirit of the discussions.
Let's set religion to one side for a moment. There are enough of the elite on the record over the last 40 years or more calling for the establishment of a "new world order" and "population reduction".
They hate what makes us human, sex, kids, love, truth, search for meaning is all alien to the globalists
Yep. Like all good maniacs, they can't resist telling us what they have in store for us. And yes, they hate all the things that make us human. Anyone who doesn't agree should just look at Zuckerberg's face.
all of them I think, once you start looking.
My aged mother told me yesterday when I suggested the possibility that we could meet in London this year that the unjabbed like me are "very, very unpopular" at the moment. Thanks, mum. Guess I'll just order my yellow star already!
your friend is not very intelligent:(
What would happen if the government issued Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine over the counter?
Fauci would explode!!!!
It would end the pandemic. BTW, I wrote about this in April: https://keithcu.com/wordpress/?p=4410
Yup! Watching Japan - still no sign of an omicron wave. . .
Actually, there is
7 day average shows a doubling time of ~12 days - which is an attenuated Delta rate, and with numbers so low (400 cases today) could be a single jumbo jet (though 14 day quarantine is required if no negative Covid test within 72 hours - Loophole alert). Around the holidays, any one day values are not particularly useful.
Also, (my understanding, which could be wrong) is that Japan is not prescribing IVM prophylactically (at least not officially and thus not widely), so the real thing to watch will be hospitalizations...
Came across a tweet suggesting that Japan has also emphasized increased ventilation and air purification indoors, too.
That's cool! Dr. Kory "Ivermectin is ivermectin." I guess my horse paste is just fine.
Dream land. Besides the mutagenic red pill and Pfizermetiv are coming to save the day! I know Canadian PO’s are already in. Profits and political donations are assured to all involved. The plebs are just an unending source of cash.
Very sad to see so many so quick to criticize Igor. Now more than ever we need critical thinkers who are willing to go out on a limb and challenge conventional thinking of people like Faucci et al. Will Igor ultimately proved to be right? I have no idea, but I welcome people like him who are willing to make us think about alternative analysis. Clearly conventional thinking is not going to get us out of this madness.
Thank you! I am secretly hoping that I am totally wrong and this will be a big nothingburger. Let us know in comments when you write something in your substack.
Omicron as a disease is already a nothingburger.
Perversely, that's what makes it the most significant variant to date. Having killed the pandemic panic narrative, and pushed Rochelle Walensky to come clean about PCR testing, Omicron has the potential to disrupt the "establishment" in every level of government in every country and state out there.
True. They are never going to stop until we stop them. If Omicron fails, they'll go on to the next variant. And the sheep will fall for it.
They are already road testing the narrative for the next variant.
https://t.me/allfactsmatter_posts/354
However, when you dig into the actual research on this new variant, you find that not much is really known, and what is known isn't exactly scary.
https://t.me/allfactsmatter_posts/362
Peter, they could call the next variant "The Common Cold" (cue scary music, and deep-voiced voice over) and the sheep would still buy it. In fact, Omicron is the common cold according to its symptoms.
I am openly hoping you are right and all hell breaks lose. Chaos makes people feel 'alive'... Well not everyone ... many people feel fear and anxiety... too bad for them.
I like chaos, I basically wake up and become alive in chaos
Did you see this?
https://jestre.substack.com/p/mild-stealth-version-of-omicron-leads
yes, I liked that article
We are looking at our future...
War photographer would have been a great job... one of my regrets in life.
Not many seeds but if you can find a better download source this is OUTSTANDING
https://thepiratebay0.org/torrent/10674236/Which.Way.is.the.Front.Line.from.Here-The.Life.and.Time.of.Tim.H
downloading now
Best part is when they burn tyres in the stairwell of the building to smoke out the sniper... the opening scene is also powerful.
I envy Hetherington... even though he died young.
I know what you mean, Igor. I've got 4 kids and a dog!
I guess that means you grew up around the time of the fall of the Soviet Union, Igor? Or am I giving you too many years!
If we all kept quiet until we were 100% certain, all we ever could communicate would be "What happened?". Daring to say "I think this will happen, because..." is something we must allow eachother as well as reserving the right to be wrong.
The pessimist's blessing, sort of: I think this will happen, but I'll be happy if I'm wrong.
Far better than the optimists curse: I think that must happen, and if it doesn't, it must be made to happen!
Also: if Xi (Omicron) happens to cause wreck and ruin, it will be blamed on people not getting n+1 shots. If Xi (Omicron) isn't worse than the common cold it will be lauded as due to stringent vaccine-mandates. Heads I win, tails you lose is the tune of the elite. In that tune lies a lesson about the nautre of power:
Power doesn't corrupt. That is a lie made true by those denying their own propensity for rationalising their morals. Corrupt people use power for corrupt means.
The righteous does what is right, no matter personal cost or loss of profit. The corrupt hums and haws and rationalises using semantics. The corrupt blames circumstance: the righteous stands by their actions.
I love all that you said! But especially If we all kept quiet until we were 100% certain, all we ever could communicate would be "What happened?"
Great points. Love this: "If we all kept quiet until we were 100% certain, all we ever could communicate would be "What happened?"
I love it too!
Thank you! And a Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
If we'd all kept quiet until we were 100% certain about Adolf, we'd all be wearing short leather trousers and eating sausages today.
Also there will be a big unity march against mandates in DC on January 23 - maybe good timing.
I agree!
And the media will ignore it, unless FBI sets up another fake insurrection. Protests are ineffective if no one knows. Better to focus on November. Support rational candidates. It's our last chance to avoid violence.
Disagree about protests. Sure, the MSM will never cover them but they are good for raising morale among the troops and it's very pleasant to have a massive shout after being silenced for so long. And who knows, maybe the marches will get bigger as time goes on. As for November, I'm not sure it will change much. The US is irrevocably split and may be heading for some kind of secession. Whoever wins in Nov and in 2024 will be violently opposed by the losers.
Excellent, but watch out for agent provocateurs and don't try and get into Congress!
Well, I agree with your first few paragraphs and that's about it! This essay will not age well at all. In fact, it's already out of date. Almost all data points clearly toward Omicron being a nothingburger. South Africa's peak of new cases is already well behind us, falling as fast as it rose. And you don't mention Dr. Abdullah's report on South African hospitalizations that found large majority were the result of testing all patients upon admission to hospitals for Covid regardless of why they were going to the hospital. And oodles of false positives result from this testing of asymptomatics no matter what the setting. I respect your work and your willingness to go against the grain but I think you've got this one wildly wrong. https://tamhunt.medium.com/yes-we-are-well-into-casedemic-territory-in-the-us-7f20d5aacf6e
If I end up becoming another failed blogger with stupid predictions, no one will ever notice... But what if I am right?
SA Hospitalizations show that it is not a nothingburger as far as hospitalization rate is, I wrote about it. SA has far fewer susceptible people than USA. We have 38% covid recovered and SA has what, 62?
you wrote about it and you were wrong when you did.
and you don't have to wait to become a failed blogger, you already are.
So I have nothing to lose, then!!!
I love your modesty, Igor! Keep at it!
I love that you open the floor for an interesting debate. That’s what is radically missing today…people open to hearing all sides, whether they agree or not. It’s so important to hear all the sides, all the speculation, all the possibilities. I appreciate your dedication to explore!
Nice rebuttal to a rather unkind post.
If Igor makes people stop and go "hmmm" how exactly is that a failure?
On my own newsletter I actually hope that people will disagree with me and debate my commentary. If folks bring facts and evidence to the table then critical thinking is alive and well.
That's not failure.
What's your prediction jan?
As you can see into the future, Jan, what's your prediction? I'm guessing it's more along the lines of all the unvaxxed being hung on piano wires...
A really big thanks. Your model captures the importance of exponential thinking, a Lesson evidently Not Learned from the pandemic to date by our public health authorities, politicians, the general public, etc.
Its deja vu all over again, but worse.
Given that the vaccines seems to reprogram natural immunity for the spike protein, your estimate of the infectable population is probably low.
Secondly, about 10% of hospitalized get debilitating long Covid which also helps overwhelm the health care system - about 10 million, who will be long term out of the workforce,
Finally I still worry about a delta wave lengthening the Omicron.
Timing-wise, it hits through the Beijing Olympics - last Olympics (Sochi) the US pressured Ukraine to try and seize Crimea.
Thank you!
Out of all that I read about Covid and the nonsense reaction to it, you are literally the only person saying anything like this. I find that interesting. Time will tell...
I hope you're wrong, but I fear that you are correct about the chaos that will happen in mid-January. I live in rural Canada, and it's currently -30C. Without power, we will have a real problem on our hands. Even natural gas furnaces do not operate without power.
If you can afford one get a backup generator asap. I run a 3000sf house on 11kw. Useful thing to have.
yep, 11kW will run almost everything except AC or the full stove
You can do without AC. Open the windows and have some ceiling fans.
I have a 11kW nat gas/propane Powermate with Honda engine to be installed this coming week
Lucky you. I've got a big bag of candles.
Yes, and you need at least 1 kW to operate a furnace with two blowers (combustion blower and circulation fan)
Also, I think you have it backwards regarding testing. With the massive increase in home testing with worthless antigen tests all of those negative tests (and with oodles of false positives, which are still a small minority of all tests taken even with high numbers of false positives), the positivity rate for PCR testing is very significantly skewed upwards. Here's how: people don't report negative antigen test results to the authorities. Generally, only positive antigen tests will lead to taking a PCR test and most jurisdictions only track PCR test results. But if all of those hundreds to one negative antigen test results are ignored and that one in a hundred positive test result (whether true positive or false positive) leads to a PCR test being taken, the denominator of the positivity rate calculation is substantially reduced. And that means the positivity rate is artificially high for PCR tests, which leads to yet another major distortion in the public stats. Thoughts? I'm not sure how we could track the degree of distortion in positivity rates, but with the renewed focus on very high positivity rates it's important that we think this one through. For example, where I live in Hawaii the positivity rate is now up to 15%, very much higher than it has been in past waves. And cases are way higher than past waves too. And yet hospitalizations and deaths have barely budged, which is more strong support for casedemic.
You are absolutely right about the skew in PCR due to LFD tests. It is one more reason why public infection data cannot be trusted and why positivity of PCR tests will be skewed up.
Someone I know is having covid now, their LFD test red line went super thick almost immediately, they did not even have to wait 10 minutes in, plus 5 minutes out. I am sure it is a real positive. They did not even bother with pcr or reporting
People should always get a PCR test follow up if they test positive with an antigen test. That's in the instructions for use and is standard guidance from CDC and WHO.
If Omicron ends up as the last gasp for covid and the illness is accepted as being clinically mild for most ( we will see), the mandatory vaccine crowd is going to have a hard time giving up masks, social distancing and the shot. Some of the recent CDC/Fauci policy seems like they are just slightly trying to soften a tiny bit.
The back pedalling is because they are sensing the public is no longer trusting them. They put all their cards on a vaccine that has become less useful. In the process of vaccine promotion they actively trashed alternatives. Now what?
Yep. I've noticed that too. The only person who isn't nuancing is.....Donald Trump. If he's not careful, he's going to be left holding the baby!
Everybody just wanted life to go on as it was right before this madness started. Now, governments across the planet have made it so that a major collapse is very likely. We're seeing virtual stampedes -- like that of frightened herd animals -- for testing, for hospital at the slightest possible indication of a problem. This madness, more than anything else, is what cannot be sustained. It's like driving down the wrong side of the freeway, full throttle, while blindfolded in rush hour. Just less "spectacular" in terms of immediate disaster.
As Walter White (Breaking Bad) said "Those consequences. They're coming."
Add to that you will see a continued push for vaccines. Already (Dec 30) we have Trudeau the Canadian PM saying "the only way out is vaccination" and accusing the unvaxxed of being "racist and misogynistic. Quebec province has just brought back a curfew and banned all in person church services. And people believe the propaganda so they are lining up for booster shots. The Atlantic has an article speculating about regular shots - like every 6 months. If people are stupid enough to do that, then let them go for it. What concerns me is that the mandates and passports (travel restrictions etc) will never end. To get on a plane you will have to have "your vaccines up to date". If anyone thinks this is going to end they are dreaming.
I do think that this will end.
I guess everything ends eventually the question is how long and will it end with a bang or a whimper.
not in any pleasant way it won't.
It will end. The question is what the body count and collateral damage will be. I increasingly don't give a damn about anyone who went along with this, but I would rather my own family and anyone who recognised this for the evil it was comes out in one piece.
These should do a sequel to Breaking Bad: Vaxxing Bad
The fog of Omicron is made foggier by Rochelle Walensky putting the final nail in the coffin of PCR testing credibility.
https://allfactsmatter.substack.com/p/did-rochelle-walensky-just-demolish
At this point, there not only is not a "gold standard" of diagnostic testing for COVID-19, there's no good standard at all.
We are, amazingly enough, two years into a pandemic without any reliable data on how many cases we have had, ever. The true numbers could be as low as 1/10 of what's been reported.
Two other major issues:
1) you state Omicron deaths figures in UK as though that has any meaning whatsoever. It's been transparent for a very long time now that deaths "with" Covid are the vast majority of Covid deaths data, not "from" Covid. So why play into that obviously incorrect paradigm at all?
2) you also continue to ignore the overwhelming data showing that the large majority of Covid hospitalizations are incidental to any Covid diagnosis. This happens b/c all patients are tested upon admission to hospitals and before surgeries, regardless of why they are at the hospital. This leads to huge numbers of false positives. It's even been quantified well in Webb and Osburn 2021, looking at a larger SoCal pediatric (under 22 year olds) hospital, through examining by hand all of the alleged Covid hospitalizations.
These two doctors actually work at this hospital and they found after hand examination that fully 87% of Covid hospitalization patients were either incidental to Covid or only minimally related to Covid. In other words these 87% of patients were NOT in the hospital b/c of Covid. And this same logic extends to "Covid deaths," which the authors confirmed with me in private dialogue.
And this same logic also applies far more substantially to older hospital patients and deaths b/c the pediatric patients only had on average 1 comorbidity, whereas in the US the average Covid death has 4 (!!) comorbidities and is 76 years old, and almost half of them lived in nursing homes before dying with Covid. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34011567/
I wish that I could somehow analyze these extremely valid and important objections numerically.
My main suggestion is to look at overall hospitalizations: if they go up beyond normal levels with Omicron, then Omicron hospitalizations are real.
what are "normal levels"? We're in winter peaks when hospitalization rates nomally spike sharply (mortality and illness is sharply seasonal in temperate climate nations like the US). And with the still massive backlog of delayed operations and treatments b/c of the pandemic I don't think we have any idea what "normal" is for hospitalizations right now. And if all of these patients are being tested for Covid upon admission, as they are, then you will get a vast majority of false positives that are then labeled "covid hospitalizations" rightly or wrongly.
Ontario 🇨🇦 will soon start to break down hospitalizations from those coming in with covid vs the false positive or asymptotic via testing of everyone who is admitted. I think it’s only to make the govt look better, not because they saw reason.
Got link?
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-mayor-calls-for-overhaul-of-misleading-covid-19-hospitalization-data-1.5722699
This is great info! I suspect the actual total of incidental/non-causal Covid patients is far higher than 50%. Webb and Osburn found fully 87% of their pediatric patients were incidental or minimally related to Covid diagnosis (mostly false positives). And the same logic strongly suggests that this percentage will go even higher for the general population b/c comorbidities increase significantly with age (average 4 comorbidities for US "Covid deaths"): https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34011567/
This where you and me have to get creative. To find hard to find data that is reliable.
Believe it or not, I drove past a ER entrance of a major local hospital recently and plan on continuing doing so once in a while, to get a sense of the level of activity. I am familiar with that ER and visited it last summer accompanying an ill person.
The activity was considerably more now than I witnessed last July.
Remember we do have more admission in winter. As you observed when you were in the ER, some of the people are really destitute and in bad shape. The cold increases that.
Yes, hospital visits and mortality more generally is highly spiky in winter in temperate climate nations like the US and Europe. (Lockdowns simulated winter conditions in key ways in terms of immobility and lack of social support)
Well that's one small data point at one hospital -- we need to find data like that Singapore collates in terms of symptomatic/asymptomatic "cases." Which states in the US collate this data?
Even before one delves into a quantitative analysis of hospitalization or excess mortality data, there are a few baseline observations that can be reliably made.
On hospitalizations, a study of VA patients found that as many as 50-60% of hospital cases were asymptomatic or mild, and the patients had actually been admitted for other things. The situation in the UK has been largely the same
https://allfactsmatter.substack.com/p/on-what-planet-does-jeff-zients-spend
On mortality, the CDC's excess mortality projections don't align with COVID-19 waves. In particular, we have the counterintuitive situation of a respiratory disease failing to produce ANY excess death from pneumonia and respiratory illness, at a time when there is excess death (according to the CDC) due to circulatory and hypertensive illness.
https://allfactsmatter.substack.com/p/too-many-covid-19-deaths-or-not-enough
Remember all the hysteria about China flu in Italy way back when all this started? Well it turns out the government (not some Italian version of Alex Jones) has downgraded it's official death rate from Covid by 97% to less than 4000.
MTA Suspends 2 Train Lines Because Of COVID-Linked Staff Shortage
https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/mta-suspends-2-train-lines-because-covid-linked-staff-shortage
Possibly related: New York business vaccine mandate took effect December 27th:
"They're worried it could lead to even more worker shortages."
https://abc7ny.com/omicron-covid-vaccine-mandate-class-action-lawsuit-nyc/11342685/