Discover more from Igor’s Newsletter
UK: Births in England Collapsed and are NOT Coming Back Up
Births Declined by 14%. Should we call it INFERTILITY?
A new UKHSA Sep 1, 2022 Vaccine Effectiveness Report is out. The report says that it “applies to England”.
And it has very bad news. Live births dropped in England by 14% as of May 2022, and the decline seems to be worsening and not recovering.
I highlighted the relevant data that we will look at:
This simple table shows year-on-year declines in births (comparing, for example, May 2022 to May 2021):
The chart is here:
Before I go further, I have to remind my readers: birth rates are always seasonal! Most parents prefer to make a “spring baby”, which often ends up with them making a “summer baby” because conception takes more time than expected. So, never compare adjacent months as they are guaranteed to have dramatic changes that are simply seasonality-driven, with differences very repeatable over the years. Only compare months of one year with same months of another year, please. I did just that, comparing May to May, etc.
The usual year-to-year variation in fertility is 1-2%. Here’s the ONS page about 2021 births (also noting ominous 10% increases in stillbirths in 2021):
So, you can see that in the prior years, nothing super exciting was happening. The year of 2022 is, therefore, a big and a very disturbing aberration.
A very important statement from that report need to be addressed. The report is missing 2,637 women.
2,637 women could not be matched with a NIMS record. Their vaccine status is therefore unknown and they are excluded from these coverage figures.
I am not sure which year — 2021 or 2022 — is missing those women and how many of those were missing in each of those respective years. However, please understand that 2,637 women is a small number compared to the 189,450 births reported in 2022. At most — if all missing women were related to only 2022 — that could change the outcome by 1.39% per every month. My guess is that they were actually missing in 2021, as the “vaccine tracking system” was being set up, although I have no proof of that.
If most missing women were related to 2021 instead, then the drop in births in 2022 would be even more pronounced. These missing women represent an unknown that muddies the waters, but does not change the fact that 2022 has a dramatic and unexplainable drop in births.
Let’s Call it What it is — Infertility
A couple that desires to have a child, and is unable to conceive or have a successful pregnancy, is called infertile. While infertility is complicated, the most basic fact that we see is that despite life going on as always in the UK, couples in 2021 could NOT conceive and complete in the first months of 2022, approximately 24 thousand pregnancies — due to infertility. That led to up to 14% declines in births this year. Whether this infertility is temporary, or permanent — is an open question. I hope that it is temporary.
The Cause is the Covid Vaccine
We all know what was going on 9 months prior to January-May of 2022. The UK was busy vaccinating its fertile and pregnant women, claiming that “Covid vaccine is safe for pregnancy”.
And now, we know how that turned out, with the 14% decline in the birth rate.
Hungary is the Proof
Please read my Hungary article, where I compared birth rate drops in 20 Hungarian counties, with vaccination rates in the same counties 9 months prior to birth rate drops. A statistical analysis called “linear regression” shows the relationship between vaccination rates and birth rate drops 9 months later. That shows causation, due to the “temporal relationship” inherent in 9-month pregnancies.
What do you think?