Bad News from Hong Kong
Cases and DEATHS exploding despite "Zero Covid" and Vaccination
Something very strange is happening in Hong Kong. I am not the first to write about it, but I wanted to do a good job compiling the information and informing my readers so this post is somewhat complete. I will include additional reading below.
Hong Kong’s stringent “Zero Covid” policy, stopped to work in mid-February and a “wall of cases” curve exploded in the territory.
Now, we have seen such “walls of cases” before, but nothing close ever happened to deaths:
You can see that deaths per million in Hong Kong are basically three TIMES the highest death rate in the US or Israel.
Cases between Feb 13-Feb 17: 18,493
Deaths between Feb 28-March 4: 895
Calculated Case Fatality Rate: 4.83%
The relevant case fatality rate in the US for our recent Omicron peak is roughly 0.3%, or 16 TIMES lower.
Slow down and let it sink in: the case fatality rate in Hong Kong is 16 times HIGHER than in the US. That should make you curious.
Vaccination
Hong Kong is vaccinated just as much as the United States or Israel, sitting closely between them:
Clearly, something else is in play and not the vaccine.
New Variant in Hong Kong
Just as cases and deaths in HK skyrocketed, a new sub-variant called “BA.2 + S:I1221T” has taken over:
Not much is known about that variant, other than it is minimal elsewhere.
Data Problems
Every Hong Konger who is diagnosed with Covid must be taken away and isolated for 21 days in a very bleak and sad place called “Penny Bay”, where they do not even have working wi-fi.
This, naturally, creates an incentive to NOT report a case of Covid and hide out at home with working wi-fi, for those lucky enough to be able to do it. This creates a bias of healthy people with mild cases not being reported, and may explain a part of high mortality.
Would you like to eat this black corn patty for lunch?
Zero Covid means Everyone is a Target
Here in the West, most people already had exposure to Covid. It is a mystery who gets infected first and why some people do not get Covid until later in the pandemic. It is possible that here in the US or UK, the least healthy people already caught Covid and some, sadly, died. Thus, subsequent waves seem to be less deadly, partly because several waves of Covid already went through the population, and some immunity already exists. Not so in HK, where everyone is now vulnerable.
Antibody-Dependent Enhancement
While, so far, I have not seen any evidence of ADE affecting anyone, it is possible that such incredibly high mortality rates are due to ADE from this new variant. The S:i1221T mutation does change a spike amino acid and it is possible that vaccine spike antibodies are assisting infection instead of suppressing it.
While it is still speculation, such a possibility need not be dismissed.
Overall, Hong Kong is a story worth watching.
Further Reads
Infamous “Thailand Medical”
Hi Igor, your research and writing is nothing less than stellar. I just want to give my two cents on the situation since I live in the city. Hong Kong had the unique opportunity to look at the world around them as a crystal ball of what could potential happen. The city lagged behind the world in terms of covid cases. The government contributed its success to their experience with SARS one and their zero covid policy. They were able to keep covid at bay for two years and the government sat on its laurels patting themselves on their back on the good job they have done. Because of this, they built quarantine units in the outskirts of the city, Penny's Bay, and anyone who had covid or a close contact had to go there for 21 days.
All this was fine and dandy until Omnicron started to emerge in the city. Then the government turned up the fear knob up to 11 and told people to get vaccinated or they will die. I remember that the vaccination rate jumped from like mid 60% to more than 70%. A week later, cases started to explode. Somehow within the two years, they failed to notice that cases explode after mass vaccination. And as the cases soared, the vaccination rate followed. And as vaccination rate soars, cases soar in an ironic obvious cycle that was completely predictable.
Most of the deaths so far are from the elderly 65+ from retirement homes who have frail health and comorbitities. Being one of the densest city in the world, it's not a surprise that a highly transmittable disease will spread like wildfire. There are mass outbreaks in apartment building because of the way they were built. People are getting infected in their homes simply by opening their windows.
Some scientists estimate that up to 15% of the 7.5 million inhabitants are already infected. The hospitals are overflowed, people can't get access to medication and even private clinics are closed. People in Penny's Bay and quarantine hotels are locked up with little to no help.
Now, schools will have their early 'summer holiday' from mid March to late April so schools can be converted to testing center as the government prepares for compulsory testing for all 7.5M people. It's terrible policy one after the other. The whole city is dead with few shops open. There is also a vaccine pass in place where the people who haven't had one shot can't enter restaurants and even shopping malls. In April, it will be two shots and in June three shots. I can't imagine the potential vaccine adverse effect fallout in a few months.
My family and I all contracted covid and we all took Ivermectin. None of us were any worse of than catching the flu. If we had caught it a few weeks before, our building would have been closed for mandatory quarantine and we would have been moved to Penny's Bay. But since there are so many cases, there simply isn't any manpower. Many people actually don't need to visit the hospitals but because of the fearmongering by the government, people flock there at the first sign of symptoms.
It's the poor government policy that's making a mess rather than the disease itself. All the anxiety, waste of resources and economic ruins, Hong Kong has learnt nothing from the rest of the world. Instead, it follows the same paths of other failed countries. Hong Kong is no exception; it's just late to the party.
They suppressed the virus until everyone became even more susceptible through vaccination. oops. While deaths remain low in New Zealand, they are also experiencing a spike of cases that is higher per capita than anywhere on earth during the pandemic. oops! It would also appear they killed 2000 people with their jab rollout. Now will come the covid deaths in the vaccinated. https://themariachiyears.substack.com/p/2000-extra-all-cause-deaths-associated?s=w