Let us see what happens, because I am getting very different inputs about Xi(Omicron)'s severity. Some people say it is super-mild, yet Igor ythinks it will be very serious...
Let us see what happens, because I am getting very different inputs about Xi(Omicron)'s severity. Some people say it is super-mild, yet Igor ythinks it will be very serious...
I also note that evidence from Delta suggests that the vaccinated get ill after longer paucisymptomatic period -- maybe 2-3 weeks after initial infection rather than the 'about 7 days' that you see in the unvaccinated. I don't know why this should be*. If it is true with Omicron then we might expect to see the hospitalisations start towards the end of the month.
(* well, if I had to guess I'd say that there's a suppression of the innate immune system in the vaccinated that allows the infection to start in the first place (ie, we see negative vaccine efficiency) but because the innate immune system is responsible for much of the symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections (sniffles, coughs, etc) people don't get much in the way of symptoms. The infection can become worse, but not break through into systemic infection because of protective IgG antibodies in the bloodstream. Eventually the infection gets to the point where it is either overcome by the immune system or becomes worse and serious symptoms start (hospitalisation). The remaining question is 'what about ADE' -- the problem with all these antibodies that are being created by ever more vaccinations is that it isn't simply the level of neutralising antibodies but the ratio between neutralising and disease enhancing antibodies -- as the boosters create very high levels of 'barely neutralising' antibodies it is very likely that they'll also increase the levels of enhancing antibodies. Thus it is rather likely that the boosters will increase the risks of ADE.)
One final point -- the insertion on the spike protein of Omicron (ins214EPE) has been suggestive to be associated with evasion of t-cell immunity. The naturally infected have rather a few areas that the t-cells target, but the vaccinated very few -- if they also have t-cell immune evasion then this might impact on the impact of disease. I'd suggest that this might be a bit more targeted towards the young, as the elderly have a poor t-cell response and instead rely on antibodies -- this is probably why covid is so much more dangerous to them in the first place.
We're not sure about T-cell immune escape, but it certainly is a possibility.
The insertion at 214 is a bit odd. Normally you see deletions and changes -- these are 'easy' to happen for an RNA virus. Insertions take a bit more effort. The odd things about ins214EPE is that it actually matches some parts of the human genome. Alternatively, it might have come from a co-infection with a 'cold' type coronavirus. Anyway, there are mechanisms to this type of insertion to occur, only it is much less likely than the normal sets of mutations. I it does code for t-cell immune escape then there's certainly some evolutionary pressure to keep it around once it has evolved... There's some more info here: https://osf.io/f7txy/
I'd suggest that it is most likely that this has mutated within a human with HIV. I'd suggest that they were likely vaccinated, but that's not essential for these things to occur. I'd state that it is very important to note that this 'isn't their fault' -- SA has a terrible problem with HIV and they've got enough problems to deal with without any 'blame'.
It isn't out of the question to suggest that it came from a lab. If it did then I don't have the information as to why they'd want to do it (ie, I don't know if it is a 12-monkeys scenario or it was the Chinese releasing a 'solve the problem and save humanity' variant).
I've heard a few people suggest that Omicron evolved in an HIV patient, but I've not heard anyone explain how an immunocompromised person could survive a long term infection with SCV2 without treatment? I get why an HIV patient would have trouble clearing the virus...any virus...but how did he survive for 15 months? Wouldn't this have implications for the virulence of the variant? Do we have any data on HCQ and Ivermectin us in South Africa and Botswana? How could this happen?
It is due to a mix of those with HIV having a compromised immune system but also taking antivirals. The antivirals suppress any viral infection but the compromised immune system means that viral clearance isn't complete.
Let us see what happens, because I am getting very different inputs about Xi(Omicron)'s severity. Some people say it is super-mild, yet Igor ythinks it will be very serious...
We don't know about its severity yet.
I also note that evidence from Delta suggests that the vaccinated get ill after longer paucisymptomatic period -- maybe 2-3 weeks after initial infection rather than the 'about 7 days' that you see in the unvaccinated. I don't know why this should be*. If it is true with Omicron then we might expect to see the hospitalisations start towards the end of the month.
(* well, if I had to guess I'd say that there's a suppression of the innate immune system in the vaccinated that allows the infection to start in the first place (ie, we see negative vaccine efficiency) but because the innate immune system is responsible for much of the symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections (sniffles, coughs, etc) people don't get much in the way of symptoms. The infection can become worse, but not break through into systemic infection because of protective IgG antibodies in the bloodstream. Eventually the infection gets to the point where it is either overcome by the immune system or becomes worse and serious symptoms start (hospitalisation). The remaining question is 'what about ADE' -- the problem with all these antibodies that are being created by ever more vaccinations is that it isn't simply the level of neutralising antibodies but the ratio between neutralising and disease enhancing antibodies -- as the boosters create very high levels of 'barely neutralising' antibodies it is very likely that they'll also increase the levels of enhancing antibodies. Thus it is rather likely that the boosters will increase the risks of ADE.)
One final point -- the insertion on the spike protein of Omicron (ins214EPE) has been suggestive to be associated with evasion of t-cell immunity. The naturally infected have rather a few areas that the t-cells target, but the vaccinated very few -- if they also have t-cell immune evasion then this might impact on the impact of disease. I'd suggest that this might be a bit more targeted towards the young, as the elderly have a poor t-cell response and instead rely on antibodies -- this is probably why covid is so much more dangerous to them in the first place.
Thanks. So Omicron escapes both Spike-speciic antibodies as well as Spike-specific T-cells, right?
Anyway, have you looked into a possibility that Omicron may be a lab creation?
We're not sure about T-cell immune escape, but it certainly is a possibility.
The insertion at 214 is a bit odd. Normally you see deletions and changes -- these are 'easy' to happen for an RNA virus. Insertions take a bit more effort. The odd things about ins214EPE is that it actually matches some parts of the human genome. Alternatively, it might have come from a co-infection with a 'cold' type coronavirus. Anyway, there are mechanisms to this type of insertion to occur, only it is much less likely than the normal sets of mutations. I it does code for t-cell immune escape then there's certainly some evolutionary pressure to keep it around once it has evolved... There's some more info here: https://osf.io/f7txy/
I'd suggest that it is most likely that this has mutated within a human with HIV. I'd suggest that they were likely vaccinated, but that's not essential for these things to occur. I'd state that it is very important to note that this 'isn't their fault' -- SA has a terrible problem with HIV and they've got enough problems to deal with without any 'blame'.
It isn't out of the question to suggest that it came from a lab. If it did then I don't have the information as to why they'd want to do it (ie, I don't know if it is a 12-monkeys scenario or it was the Chinese releasing a 'solve the problem and save humanity' variant).
I've heard a few people suggest that Omicron evolved in an HIV patient, but I've not heard anyone explain how an immunocompromised person could survive a long term infection with SCV2 without treatment? I get why an HIV patient would have trouble clearing the virus...any virus...but how did he survive for 15 months? Wouldn't this have implications for the virulence of the variant? Do we have any data on HCQ and Ivermectin us in South Africa and Botswana? How could this happen?
It is due to a mix of those with HIV having a compromised immune system but also taking antivirals. The antivirals suppress any viral infection but the compromised immune system means that viral clearance isn't complete.