Summary Recently released data shows that case rate of Covid infections among fully vaccinated Medicare recipients, 5-6 months after vaccination, is HIGHER than the average case rate for ALL Americans. It seems to be comparable to the case rate for unvaccinated persons.
Also, a fair amount of fit, healthy people in their 60s and 70s maybe know they’re not that high-risk, and/or figure their vax protects them, and do party.
I'm new to your sub stack You may already have this data.
The UK Health Security Agency vaxx surveillance reports show a higher rate of infection in the fully vaxxed as compared to the unvaxxed. The switchover was age 40-49 in the week 39 report, and it was 30-39 in the week 40 report. The vaxxes still provide protection against hospitalization and death.
"Negative infection efficacy" (as measured in real-time) isn't alarming in of itself. It could just mean that the 4+ post-vaccine cohort is at 0 efficacy, but now have to begin paying their immune debt (since the per-capita susceptibility of the unvaccinated has been lowering throughout the summer waves via infection and recovery).
Or, it could actually be a reflection of negative efficacy - most plausibly via the disablement of innate immunity (natural antibodies and natural killer cells), as vanden Bossche predicted (meanwhile, the previously infected + vaccinated still seem to be protected by functional memory immunity). This would explain the larger 2021 summer waves in Israel, southern US, etc. The "dark matter" of innate immunity has been disabled among the pseudo-vaccinated.
This means the current waves might not ever really subside, but just plateau. In another month or two it might be possible to compare seroprevalence for N protein among the non-boosted +~10 month vaccinated in the UK with the unvaccinated and find that it is higher, implying that they not only caught up but out-did the unvaccinated in case rates.
Just some thoughts:
Many elderly live in congregate settings.
Also, a fair amount of fit, healthy people in their 60s and 70s maybe know they’re not that high-risk, and/or figure their vax protects them, and do party.
Just thoughts.
I'm new to your sub stack You may already have this data.
The UK Health Security Agency vaxx surveillance reports show a higher rate of infection in the fully vaxxed as compared to the unvaxxed. The switchover was age 40-49 in the week 39 report, and it was 30-39 in the week 40 report. The vaxxes still provide protection against hospitalization and death.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022238/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_39.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1023849/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_40.pdf
"Negative infection efficacy" (as measured in real-time) isn't alarming in of itself. It could just mean that the 4+ post-vaccine cohort is at 0 efficacy, but now have to begin paying their immune debt (since the per-capita susceptibility of the unvaccinated has been lowering throughout the summer waves via infection and recovery).
Or, it could actually be a reflection of negative efficacy - most plausibly via the disablement of innate immunity (natural antibodies and natural killer cells), as vanden Bossche predicted (meanwhile, the previously infected + vaccinated still seem to be protected by functional memory immunity). This would explain the larger 2021 summer waves in Israel, southern US, etc. The "dark matter" of innate immunity has been disabled among the pseudo-vaccinated.
This means the current waves might not ever really subside, but just plateau. In another month or two it might be possible to compare seroprevalence for N protein among the non-boosted +~10 month vaccinated in the UK with the unvaccinated and find that it is higher, implying that they not only caught up but out-did the unvaccinated in case rates.