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wolvesjoe's avatar

I am based in Copenhagen, Denmark, and am following the discussion and stats around Covid very closely. I would like to make a few comments on Igor's very stimulating post:

1. First of all, the Danish health authorities do give the figures for vaxxed and non-vaxxed in hospital. Here is the link:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d/page/page_5/

I have been tracking these figures, and they are becoming very interesting. The daily figure for people in hospital has stagnated for the non-vaxxed over the last 9 days, while rising relatively slowly for the vaxxed. Non-vaxxed have gone from 163 in hospital 9 days ago up to 166 today.

Vaxxed have gone, on the other hand, from 284 to 335 or from 300 to 359 if you include the partially vaccinated.

Impt to remember that Delta is still around and through the autumn the hospitalisation rate per 100,000 population has been around 3-4 times higher for the non-vaxxed. This ratio is now shrinking. Denmark has been very, very open since September, schools, bars, work, etc, with everything open, no masks, and pretty much a normal social life. It is apparent from the data that the vaccines did offer some protection, but have been waning in their impact since October, following the chronology of when people were jabbed. So inevitably there has been a rise in Delta cases.

The death rate has risen, but only at low levels.

The Danish authorities do not give direct figures for deaths on a non-vaxxed/vaxxed basis. The figure can be ascertained by looking at the Infection Breakthrough reports, published fortnightly, and then subtracting the vaccinated deaths total given there from the overall Covid death total, to find the non-vaxxed deaths total. I have done this, but the different sources do not match fully. However, it seems that the death rate for the non-vaxxed is slowing dramatically, with only 11% of non-vaxxed in the last period covered by these reports, (26th Nov. up to 7th December. Back in July 100% of Covid deaths, (which were at a very low level of 2-3 per day), were amongst the non-vaxxed. And this share has gradually been falling ever since.

2. The low rate of Omicron infection amongst the non-vaxxed could also be explained by other age and health factors, rather than immune suppression caused by the vaccine per se. The 19% of population who are not vaccinated includes children under 12, many young adults, and a cohort of people who have their own self-management programmes for staying healthy. Whereas the vaccinated, particularly the boostered, include many older, frailer people, and people with some metabolic issues. This may explain the greater susceptibility which is showing up so dramatically in the figures. But obviously something to keep a close eye on, in case immune suppression from the vaccines is involved.

3. I am not sure how Igor is working out his hospitalisation figures. A calculation is given for this in the daily Omicron reports. Here is the most recent:

Tabel 6, Page 8: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-19122021-hp16.pdf?la=da

This gives a hospitalisation rate of 0.6% for Omicron between the 22nd November and the 16th December. That figure may rise a little as there are more and more cases of Omicron, a few of which have yet to be processed from the 15th and 16th December. But it is doubtful if this very low figure becomes anything significant some four days after the closing date for that calculation.

Perhaps even more significant is the apparent short duration of any hospital stays that Omicron infections are leading to. By the 16th December, there had been 114 hospitalisations in total, yet by today, 19th December, there were only 30 Omicron infected people in hospital. This suggests that Omicron hospital treatments last a few days at most, and probably less for many.

Almost none of these points, which emerge from the latest data, are being discussed in the media or by the politicians. There is a desperate rush to get as many vaccinated as possible, particularly children, for whom vaccination has recently been approved. Anecdotedly, Omicron is a cold, and one can hope or presume that this will be reflected in the public discussion soon.

4. Although it is probably a little early to be conclusive, it does seem that Omicron is rapidly displacing Delta. The most recent day we have, where all Omicron cases had been counted was the 14th December, (last Tuesday), when Omicron accounted for 38.4% of all cases, up from 21.9% two days previously. If the Omicron had to continued to grow at the lower end of previous growth rate, (say 5% per day), then Omicron would be up around 65% by today. Infections have fallen markedly the last 2 days, (from over 11,000 to 8,212 today), and this could reflect a decline in Delta. Again not conclusive, but something that should be clarified over the course of the next 3-4 days.

2.

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RHE's avatar

Once again many thanks for taking the time to produce this sort of information. It’s a comfort knowing that my initial scepticism about the jab, which resulted in the end of a 35 yr friendship as this friend tried to persuade me that I must have it as she’d been involved in the initial trials and it was going to save mankind, yadda, yadda. I just didn’t trust that the pharma companies, which are after all businesses wanting to make a profit, would be open and honest about their research. They’d tapped in to the never ending money tree with this jab. They’re a pharmaceutical company who make money from people being ill, they’re hardly likely to want a ‘cure’ as it would cut off their never ending income stream. Oh dear, I do sound sceptical

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