165 Comments

I am based in Copenhagen, Denmark, and am following the discussion and stats around Covid very closely. I would like to make a few comments on Igor's very stimulating post:

1. First of all, the Danish health authorities do give the figures for vaxxed and non-vaxxed in hospital. Here is the link:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d/page/page_5/

I have been tracking these figures, and they are becoming very interesting. The daily figure for people in hospital has stagnated for the non-vaxxed over the last 9 days, while rising relatively slowly for the vaxxed. Non-vaxxed have gone from 163 in hospital 9 days ago up to 166 today.

Vaxxed have gone, on the other hand, from 284 to 335 or from 300 to 359 if you include the partially vaccinated.

Impt to remember that Delta is still around and through the autumn the hospitalisation rate per 100,000 population has been around 3-4 times higher for the non-vaxxed. This ratio is now shrinking. Denmark has been very, very open since September, schools, bars, work, etc, with everything open, no masks, and pretty much a normal social life. It is apparent from the data that the vaccines did offer some protection, but have been waning in their impact since October, following the chronology of when people were jabbed. So inevitably there has been a rise in Delta cases.

The death rate has risen, but only at low levels.

The Danish authorities do not give direct figures for deaths on a non-vaxxed/vaxxed basis. The figure can be ascertained by looking at the Infection Breakthrough reports, published fortnightly, and then subtracting the vaccinated deaths total given there from the overall Covid death total, to find the non-vaxxed deaths total. I have done this, but the different sources do not match fully. However, it seems that the death rate for the non-vaxxed is slowing dramatically, with only 11% of non-vaxxed in the last period covered by these reports, (26th Nov. up to 7th December. Back in July 100% of Covid deaths, (which were at a very low level of 2-3 per day), were amongst the non-vaxxed. And this share has gradually been falling ever since.

2. The low rate of Omicron infection amongst the non-vaxxed could also be explained by other age and health factors, rather than immune suppression caused by the vaccine per se. The 19% of population who are not vaccinated includes children under 12, many young adults, and a cohort of people who have their own self-management programmes for staying healthy. Whereas the vaccinated, particularly the boostered, include many older, frailer people, and people with some metabolic issues. This may explain the greater susceptibility which is showing up so dramatically in the figures. But obviously something to keep a close eye on, in case immune suppression from the vaccines is involved.

3. I am not sure how Igor is working out his hospitalisation figures. A calculation is given for this in the daily Omicron reports. Here is the most recent:

Tabel 6, Page 8: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-19122021-hp16.pdf?la=da

This gives a hospitalisation rate of 0.6% for Omicron between the 22nd November and the 16th December. That figure may rise a little as there are more and more cases of Omicron, a few of which have yet to be processed from the 15th and 16th December. But it is doubtful if this very low figure becomes anything significant some four days after the closing date for that calculation.

Perhaps even more significant is the apparent short duration of any hospital stays that Omicron infections are leading to. By the 16th December, there had been 114 hospitalisations in total, yet by today, 19th December, there were only 30 Omicron infected people in hospital. This suggests that Omicron hospital treatments last a few days at most, and probably less for many.

Almost none of these points, which emerge from the latest data, are being discussed in the media or by the politicians. There is a desperate rush to get as many vaccinated as possible, particularly children, for whom vaccination has recently been approved. Anecdotedly, Omicron is a cold, and one can hope or presume that this will be reflected in the public discussion soon.

4. Although it is probably a little early to be conclusive, it does seem that Omicron is rapidly displacing Delta. The most recent day we have, where all Omicron cases had been counted was the 14th December, (last Tuesday), when Omicron accounted for 38.4% of all cases, up from 21.9% two days previously. If the Omicron had to continued to grow at the lower end of previous growth rate, (say 5% per day), then Omicron would be up around 65% by today. Infections have fallen markedly the last 2 days, (from over 11,000 to 8,212 today), and this could reflect a decline in Delta. Again not conclusive, but something that should be clarified over the course of the next 3-4 days.

2.

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Thanks a lot for your amazing and well written report. Please keep us updated. It seems as if the published numbers about vaxxed vs unvaxxed are not broken down for Omicron, so we have to do a bit of guesswork.

As for hospitalization numbers: I wrote down, in a spreadsheet, the daily counts for "All Covid", "Omicron", and calculated "Delta" by subtracting omicron from all covid.

Then I would look at hospitalizations for either, divided by the sum of cases up to 6 days before the given date, to account for time lag. The calculation is the same for Delta as it is for Omicron and the ratios are mostly stable. So it is "apples to apples". I can share my spreadsheet with you, I use it for all covid calculations but it has a Denmark sheet (which is also subject to change).

I posted a screenshot in a tweet for you: https://twitter.com/ichudov/status/1472664829852856334

Please keep us updated about Denmark!!!

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Hi Igor and crew....can anyone please tell me how you know the difference between the variants (Delta & Omnicron)? I did not think hospitals could test for the variants has that changed? Thanks in advance!!

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The PCR test tests for three viral RNA pieces, one of which is the Spike RNA. PCR tests detect two other pieces but do not detect Spike. It is called Spike Gene Target Failure (SGTF). That's a pretty sure sign of Omicron.

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Thank you sir.

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The study released today suggests that Statens Serum Institut uses 452L gene positivity to count an Omicron positive. Since none of the other extant strains had the "wild type" 452L anymore, all pre-existing "Delta" PCR assays that included a 452L control can spot the gene.

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And the common cold? Does it have this gene?

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Who can say. It's as reliable as when the same tests were used to distinguish "Pre-Delta" from "Delta," at any rate.

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So spikeless SARS-CoV-2, eh? Can it be "almost anything" then?

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The only way to be sure is if it has been sequenced, something DK is considered to be quite good at, where as the UK/US are considered to be not so good at.

More information can be found here:-

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-surveillance.html

The four links go into detail on the process and variants currently being tracked.

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Some excellent points, but you're missing the mark on hospitalizations. The report shows ALL cases and hospitalizations from Nov 22 to Dec 15, but you have to remember that there has been a huge increase in Omicron just in the past two weeks, and it has accelerated in the past week. Therefore, the data over that period is going to be biased towards showing a lower hospitalization rate for Omicron, as there is always a lag between cases and hospitalizations, and Omicron cases have been increasing exponentially.

Igor's lagged data looking a week back is fair and his calculations make sense.

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I think we need to look more closely at the hospitalisation rate over the next couple of days as more data becomes available. The figure of 0.6% given in the daily Omicron report covers the period from 22.11 to 16.12, so already four days ago, meaning that most of the test results for variants should have been completed and tallied.

A couple of points to note, however. The figure given by the SSI is getting lower. Back on 13.12.21, it was estimated to be 1.1% hospitalisation rate, (and that covered the period 22.11 to 12.12. By the 19.12, it was down to 0.6%, (covering the period up to 16.12).

It is also becoming clearer that the hospital stays are of short duration, as the low number of people in hospital with Omicron is staying low, despite massively increasing infection figures.

This appears to be paralleling the South African experience, (running some 2-3 weeks ahead of Denmark), with regard to hospital admission, duration of stay and low incidence of severe disease.

Finally, it may be helpful to compare with the rate for hospitalisation following infection with Delta. This figure is also given in the daily Omicron report, at least from the 12.12 onwards.

Omicron Delta, (any other variants)

10.12: 1.4% Not Available

13.12: 1.1% 0.7%

16.12: 0.7% 1.6%

19.12: 0.6% 1.5%

So the current figures point to a 2.5 times greater risk of hospitalisation with Delta over Omicron.

All provisional on more information at this still very early stage of Omicron's development. .

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A few points:

1. I wouldn't close the book on South Africa just yet. Severe hospitalizations and ventilations continue to rise there, and they just reported the highest number of daily deaths yet from this wave. I expect that number will continue to rise, as cases fall...which will affect the CFR there. There's a big lag with this.

2. The hospital data is only as up to date as the sequencing data. To get a comparable analysis, you have to look at how many new Delta and new Omicron hospital admissions there were the last day of available data, and then compare that to the case numbers for each a week earlier - exactly what Igor has done.

3. You seem to be forgetting that over the 11/22 to 12/15 period, the number of Delta cases has stayed roughly the same, but the number of Omicron has increased exponentially over the past couple weeks. Which means the data over this period would naturally be expected to show a higher share of Delta hospitalized, since such a larger percentage of Omicron cases are just in the past week.

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I looked at SA and yes, the deaths number from today is kind of large. We are all a little bit reading the tea leaves here, yesterday the deaths were low, today very high, in the end in my opinion we'd get more information if we look at the UK or Denmark.

Deaths wise the UK is not doing very well, unfortunately, considering how fast Omicron is growing.

Where do you look at SA hospitalization numbers? Thanks

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Yes, the 7 day average will take a big jump after today's number is factored in. I believe we're starting to see the effects of Omicron spreading to older, more vulnerable populations there.

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

But if you want a nice, daily summary, this guy does a great job: https://twitter.com/sugan2503

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One thing to keep in mind with the SA data is they will continue to add hospitalizations to the previous week, as more data comes in. So the number you see right now for last week probably won't be complete for a couple more days.

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Thank you very much for the Danish update. I followed the link for vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalizations. I don't speak or read Danish, but at the top it said per 100,000. So the numbers that you cite from this link, are those raw numbers, or are they case numbers?

I have a friend from Holland here in the US. We spoke yesterday and she said the press says hospitals are filling with unvaccinated patients, and her friend's father can't get a routine medical procedure because of it. Is this your take on what's happening there?

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The figures are for aggregate totals on a running basis. So the figure for today, for example, is 166 in hospital who have not been vaccinated. That 166 is the number remaining in hospital after those discharged today is subtracted, while those admitted to hospital today are added.

Every Tuesday, the SSI here publishes a report which publishes the actual total for newly admitted, both for vaxxed and non-vaxxed. These are available as Excel files.

As I mentioned in the opening post, the death totals are not published directly on a non-vaxxed/vaxxed basis. One has to use two separate records to calculate this figure.

Spoiler alert, its not published for a reason.

As for non-vaxxed filling up the hospitals: its a 166/359 split at the moment, with the vaxxed figure on the rise.

The non-vaxxed are more than 50% LESS likely to catch Omicron at the moment, so it is reasonable to expect that the ratio will see further declines in non-vaxxed over the next few days.

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Thank you, that is very helpful! 💕

I had been following the same trend here in the US states. The raw data is getting harder to find, suddenly they aren't publicizing those numbers because the trend was not in the vaccinated favor. In fact the percentage of hospitalizations and deaths of those vaccinated were reaching the percentage of the population vaccinated back in October..

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Thank you a lot!

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Once again many thanks for taking the time to produce this sort of information. It’s a comfort knowing that my initial scepticism about the jab, which resulted in the end of a 35 yr friendship as this friend tried to persuade me that I must have it as she’d been involved in the initial trials and it was going to save mankind, yadda, yadda. I just didn’t trust that the pharma companies, which are after all businesses wanting to make a profit, would be open and honest about their research. They’d tapped in to the never ending money tree with this jab. They’re a pharmaceutical company who make money from people being ill, they’re hardly likely to want a ‘cure’ as it would cut off their never ending income stream. Oh dear, I do sound sceptical

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Most of us have lost friends and relatives over this. But it's not us that's ostracizing them. They are ostracizing, insulting, and demeaning us. Because it's a cult, a religion to them. Insane.

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I have not lost any friends or relatives over this, but yes it happens A LOT. I have some provax relatives. So far we still have a good relationship. I am mindful, around some persons, to just avoid this discussions. Relatives are too high stakes

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Relationships are the most important thing. We would like to keep our loved ones safe, but If pursuing the subject would jeopardize the relationship, they certainly wouldn't take the advice anyway. Best to prioitize the relationship and be there for them if they ever wake up from the mind game.

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yep

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I imagine a Christmas gathering ... a few drinks ... then a few more ... someone makes a snide comment about an unvaxxed family member.... resulting in a cage match of the vaxxed vs unvaxxed... hair pulling .. gouging ... spitting...

Ho Ho Ho and Merry Christmas to all

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Festivus has arrived!

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I haven't lost any relationships either, but it's quite easy to get triggered or lose your temper when talking to pro-vaxers or ppl who completely bought into the fear narrative. Like everytime I talk to my mother she has to parrot the latest covid fear porn from MSM. Being a contrarian, I instantly have to take the opposite stance saying stuff like "I really wish I'm getting the omicron variant" just to piss her off. Like, it's really difficult having a balanced position when most ppl are so one-dimensional, even though I'm really not that dogmatic and unreasonable.

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I had an old friend get very nasty over it, though we agreed to remain friends. I can get over the insults, as she's an angry person in general, but has great qualities. But I am having trouble getting over her support for vaccine mandates. Do I really want to pal around with authoritarians who don't believe in bodily autonomy or the Nuremberg Code?

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No, no you don't. Ditch her as a friend; you don't need that in your life.

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A year ago, one of my long-standing relationships got dropped by sort of tacit mutual consent; with another, I was happy to hear that a friend of ours got wind of my views and decided not to see me (us, really) ever again. It saved me the trouble of using white lies as to why we could not come and visit. No regrets, frankly - things have run their course.

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All the vaxxed will soon be dead so don't sweat it

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The Unvaccinated Are Looking Smarter Every Week

First, let’s address the intelligence of the unvaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy is multi-factorial and has little to do with level of education or intelligence. Carnegie Mellon University did a study assessing vaccine hesitancy across educational levels. According to the study, what’s the educational level with the most vaccine hesitancy? Ph.D. level! Those can’t all have been awarded to liberal arts majors. Clearly, scientists who can read the data and assess risk are among the least likely to take the mRNA vaccines.

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That's right. This was actually obvious from the beginning. They would say, in a nutshell:

"The unvaxxed are dumb BECAUSE THEY DO NOT TRUST THE SCIENCE".

This statement, or variations of it, in itself is extremely stupid. Not trusting things that do not make sense, is a sign of critical thinking abilities, not a sign of stupidity.

The very highly educated can properly evaluate risks and understand "unknown unknowns".

The least educated have a lot of experience with being scammed in real life, and see scams like the vax scams a mile away. The uneducated also were not socialized in college to "trust the media".

What the last year shows is that intelligence, education, and ability to think critically are completely separate abilities. Someone could be uneducated, and yet able to spot a scam. And someone else can be very educated and yet be a sheep "trusting authorities".

Can you refer me where the CMU study mentioned PhDs? I took a glance but did not find the relevant pagagraph.

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Totally agree. Although I had to listen to people try to shame me into the jab by saying only the stupid and uneducated would resist and believe the horse worm theories etc. But yet the same individuals couldn’t explain the data to me (and I studied math plus took the time to read beyond the headlines).

In addition to the above, I also think having a reverence for nature and our bodies is important. I grew up on a farm and I find that “open mind” which usually goes with working with animals and nature gives a slight hesitancy to the God-like vaccines (although most people got the jab in my community there was an openness to discuss it and most viewed it as simply the only way to travel or do anything due to the passport system).

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I personally was never against other vaccines and never even paid attention to them -- but Covid vax changed it all. I see bullshit like the covid vax a mile away and the vax story never made sense to me. I do not get easily shamed into changing my mind.

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Agree. Plus even if they were the miracle cure touted, there was no downside to waiting

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If were we were all paying closer attention we would be aware of the myriad of scandals involving the pharma industry and the thousands upon thousands of lives ruined and/or ended due to these scandals. There are documentaries and books written about these things. Some of the scandals are ongoing. Pharma saves a lot of lives (it has saved mine) but that doesn't mean there isn't also a darker side and that this industry doesn't need to be constantly questioned and monitored by us, it's customers.

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I have a circle of good friends who are lawyers -- 6 or 7 guys -- they are all gulping the kool aid except for one -- he stopped when get a case of myocarditis after shot 2... the others are aware of his situation yet they are all boosting.

They trust the system - cuz they are a pillar of the system

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Another excellent article.

BTW - I contacted two clinics to try to make a vaccination appointment ... but only under the following conditions:

1. A doctor must administer it

2. I will bring a lawyer along as a witness (ideally allowed to record the visit)

3. I will state that I am being coerced to take the vaccine

4. I will read a summary of the Nuremberg Code

5. I will present a print out of the main page of vaccine injuries and deaths https://openvaers.com/covid-data

The CEO of one clinic group emailed back and said they are not agreeable.

Waiting on another.

I am thinking ... what if millions of people made appointments with their doctors for 'the vaccine' and dropped something similar on them ... no need to bring a lawyer... just read the code - hand them the docs and see what they say....

If they say pull up your sleeve... then you walk out. And inform them that you have recorded the conversation

Make them sweat.

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I like your thinking

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Brilliant! Also, add that you want the injection to be aspirated - a simple thing according to Dr. Campbell, but a large percentage will say no.

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If I ever had to do it I would certainly demand the needle be aspirated. But at this point I don't see them getting it in me without a gun to my head so its doubtful they would accept my request.

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BTW - if no lawyer at least bring a witness...

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That's pretty good shit my friend!

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Love it!

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in a nut shell "vaccines are destructive"

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I agree

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A possible reason Delta and Omicron numbers could be going up at the same time: I was listening to a recent interview with Dr Andrew Kaufman where he discusses Omicron, and apparently the trick being used now is that they say because the spike protein in Omicron is heavily mutated, they now claim 2/3 positive markets in the PCR test as an Omicron case, while 3/3 is still delta. You’re more likely to have 2/3 markers than 3/3, hence Omicron quickly becomes the dominant strain because of the games continued to be played with the PCR test

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re your third point, 'why does the vaccines make things worse' -- there's evidence that the vaccines suppress the innate immune system.

In addition, protective antibodies might work, but IMO they're limited to IgA antibodies, which with the first and second dose had waned to negligible levels by around 50 days post vaccination. Thus the protective aspect of the boosters might be over by around now for those boosted earliest, leaving only a suppressed innate immune system.

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Correct

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There are known possible downsides to repeated doses of Covid vaccines. Moderna admitted as much in 2016 and multiple pharma companies dropped their mRNA vaccine R&D because of the issues the serious issues they were seeing with repeated doses of mRNA technology. This exact issue is why Moderna decided to focus on uses for mRNA where only very few doses would be needed (vaccines), but now that isn't what we've got at all is it? Why would we allow young healthy folks to play with fire when this is a virus we know for certain will be around for the rest of our lives, and the younger you are the longer this virus will be a part of your life. You can't undo the vaccines. The 'better safe than sorry' for young healthy folks is heavily weighted in the favor of not being vaccinated until more in known.

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"innate immune system" Not sure what this is? Some kind of new-age thing? The immune system is just antibodies. That's why negative efficacy is proof of OAS, because there's nothing else that could be involved.

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I'm no expert, but the term is used a lot. Bartram may be referring to this post by Jessica Rose recently: https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-bnt162b2-mrna-vaccine-against

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It was sarcasm on my part. Disruption of the innate immune system is an incredibly obvious potential mechanism of negative efficacy; OAS is all but a pseudo-science hawked by vaccine makers who essentially don't admit innate immunity is real.

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Thanks for pointing out it was sarcasm.

The constant cry of 'antibodies' reminds me of the cries of 'electrolytes' in the movie Idiocracy -- people don't know anything other than 'it's antibodies!'

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Idiocracy is my favorite movie

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Pfizo's got what covid craves -- it's got electrospikes

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Close second? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnZ2XdqGZWU

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The hypervaxxers focus only on antibodies so they can claim that the previously infected no longer have natural immunity if they no longer have detectible antibodies. By ignoring B cell and T cell memory, the jabbers can rationalize forcing their mRNA on the previously infected.

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And in so doing, the "Covid vaccines will sabotage memory immunity!" group just becomes the mirror image of "Unvaccinated people are 'totally unarmed'!" crowd on MSM.

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I wonder what % of people know what the 'complement system' is? Less than 1% perhaps

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The differentiation being non-specific (innate) and specific (adaptive). Adaptive has a faster pre-programmed response that can inhibit a naïve innate response. OAS is relevant as vaccinal (adaptive) antibodies are binding but non-neutralizing.

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That's not OAS, that's blunting of innate immunity as predicted by vanden Bossche (the comment you replied to was sarcasm, see other reply).

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lol. Anyway it doesn't matter, because we trust The Science!

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If you are honest with yourself... you'd have to admit ... it would be awesome if this turned out to be correct.

I wonder if repeating I Told You So ... would ever get old?

BTW - I was at a gathering a few weeks ago and was informed by a CovIDIOT that he was ok with people choosing not to (I guess he assumed I was a MOREON and vaxxed.. do I look like that???) ... but they should be denied health care if they get covid...

I wanted to say ya -- I feel that way about anti vaxxers but also obese people and smokers because let's be honest - they could have chosen a healthier lifestyle.... but that might have been the catalyst that lead to a full on brawl (and as we know there CovDIOTS are a huge majority... so best not to end up there)...

Any hoo... how about all these triple quadruple vax-snorting CovIDIOTS who are being hospitalized... with covid... because apparently they ruined their immune systems...

Surely they should be turned away when the arrive the hospitals?

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Well, 78% of Covid hospitalizations are in the obese and overweight according to the CDC, and UK govt. says 80%, so I trust those numbers (and probably many of those are over 70) ... the rest nearly all thin elderly, and sick ... so those "clogging the hospitals" certainly aren't healthy people at a good weight who happen to get Covid. The average age of Covid death in the US is 80, higher than average life expectancy.

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Omicron Variant= Vaccine Injury

The "variant" story is pre-planned cover for vaccine injury. They knew the results from the trials and knew that massive numbers of adverse events were coming.

None of this is accidental.

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I saw that predicted by a few people last year. The rush to get everyone jabbed so there can be no comparison in the next few years if cancers/autoimmune rates go through the roof. Everyone jabbed and it can be blamed on long covid or a new variant or an old variant basically anything covid related that can justify more and more jabs. If any death within 28 days of a positive PCR test is registered as a covid death then every death within 28 days of a jab should be registered as a vaccine death, instead we have the situation of covid deaths being over estimated and vaccine deaths being hugely underestimated. I saw a comment in the Daily Telegraph (I’m English) that a person knew of a fit healthy 28 yrs old man who’d had a heart attack very soon after the jab but the death wasn’t registered as a vaccine death. The figures are manipulated to suit whatever agenda is being pushed.

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Any way to know if the “not vaxed” are also covid naive? Is prior infection helping? Is covid naive better?

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I’m seeing published and presented data trying to say Omi is infecting Covid recovered at higher rates, but on closer look data and analysis is bad. Also, it’s often not determined if “Covid recovered” is vax+ Covid breakthrough or never vax+Covid recovered. I’m guessing those calling “shots” don’t really want to look there.

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Yor comment is spot on. The "greater reinfection rate" is still very low compared to the vaccinated. Also indeed "vaxed+recovered" do not acwuire proper immunity.

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I am not dismissing the possibility for ADE, but I think the simplest explanation for the negative vax efficacy is the lack of durability of the vaccine. Imagine a simplified scenario where a population is 90% vaxxed while the 10% unvaxxed have 100% naturally acquired immunity. In this case, it's not hard to see the case and hospitalization number looking really bad for the vax without any kind of ADE.

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could be also

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The COVID-19 Pandemic is the result of a deattenuating SARS-like Live-Attenuated Vaccine (LAV), and neither vaccines nor natural immunity is going to stop it. The Omicron variant has regained the the ability for airborne transmission among mice because it’s returned far enough back toward it’s original highly-chimeric V-1000 form to “remember” the humanized mice that it was originally constructed on, which have some human immune genes spliced into their now mostly-murine genomes. When it first got out it jumped immediately into farmed mink all across the world because those are overlapping cousins with the lab ferrets it was deattenuated down on as it was weakened down into a LAV.

And now that it’s had nearly two years of circulation among every modern human society on the planet, and so like the T-1000 rebuilding itself from tiny pieces, it’s now gotten close enough back to its original form for airborne transmission among mice - ubiquitous hitchhikers that infest every single major human city on earth. There is now no way to stop the unchecked reversion of SARS-CoV-2 back to its original full-strength form except for stopping public transmission. Until the rest of the world is ready to accept that and move forward, there’s absolutely nothing at all else to be said.

Just keep talking, and pretend like you can ignore all the dying.

https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/the-last-interview-the-sirotkins

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"deattenuating Live-Attenuated Vaccine" is just a synonym for a virus. But, presumably the point is that we haven't really seen the "virus" version of SARS-CoV-2. That has nothing to do with whether natural immunity can or can't stop it (spoiler: natural immunity can stop coronaviruses).

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Or maybe he means "stop" in the mythical herd immunity / eradication sense.

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So what does this mean? Vaccinated or unvaccinated we should anticipate the early Wuhan days of people dropping dead on the street (or the 80% lab number where hosts die within a month)?

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So long as an RNA virus is able to find new hosts to infect and so can continue replicating, its quasispecies mutant swarm won’t attenuate upon continual replication and new host introduction, and its mutational cloud will continue to grow in size as the swarm grows in variant-derived complexity. And as these quasispecies mutant swarms get larger, by definition they also become more variegated, and eventually more virulent.

2.3 – Time for life to spark.

Avian influenzas don’t magically attenuate over time on crowded industrial poultry farms, they’re now ubiquitous and growing more virulent there because the population densities involved mean that the quasispecies swarms of the avian influenzas infecting them have an unlimited supply of hosts and so never stop mutating toward highly pathogenic states, where a 50% fatality rate can be a best-case scenario. In a sense there’s an immunological pressure that slowly begins to build after population densities become unnaturally high, until it explodes with the emergence of a highly pathogenic strain that burns through a poultry farm, generally killing at least half the flock and sometimes all of it.

https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/understanding-covid-19-and-seasonal

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Fascinating - although terrifying - read. Thank you

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Do we have confirmation that those videos were real? Some seem to think they were fake and possibly designed to trick the West into doing lockdowns.

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Confirmation from whom? You'll have to decide for yourself.

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Personally I think they were fake, as there are many traffic-accident scams there, as well as other scams, and people jockeying for social-media stardom. I’ve spent quite a lot of time there. I don’t think there’s any specific reason to think the govt. was behind the videos. They could have been a prank or any number of things—maybe created to sell to media outlets or to get clicks. Or if it is the govt maybe to scare people into staying home. They have highway billboards of gory car accidents to warn people to drive carefully.

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Just remembered: there is a YT channel I used to watch

Jackie in The Middle

@WLaowai8

https://t.co/vyazYCTmaD

It was bad alright

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I’ll let others answer as I’m not sure. My personal opinion is that I don’t think China would lockdown the way it did (economic impact, losing face) unless they knew there was serious potential though

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Dec 24, 2021
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No, I don't know anything. But I'm suspicious of any country that shuts down their economy, bolts people in their apartments, throws them a sandwich and all the guards and personnel are suddenly in hazmat suits.

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Dec 24, 2021
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I don't know. Presumably no but for most countries that can't even close the shops on Sundays it seems extreme. Especially if it's just a runny nose, sore throat with over a 99% chance of survival for most - but was that the known trajectory at the time? And even when mild the illness itself seems very inconsistent and bizarre. And why such an aggressive strategy with the vaccines when clearly a year on we don't seem to be in better shape. None of it really makes sense to me...

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Very interesting. You mention a lot of things that I did not know before, which always makes me slightly skeptical, but you clearly have a point, which I have not yet been able to fully discern. I will read your article. I already started.

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I just discovered Sirotkin & Sirotkin today. While I do not buy into the theory completely, it does appear to explain a lot of things: the severity of the original Wuhan outbreak, the mink outbreaks in 2020 and now the purported mice crossover. It explains Omicron's omniously unclear origins and unrelatedness to Delta, why more virulent "variants" seem to pop out of nowhere and have even before the mass vaccinations began.

You seem to also believe that Omicron was lab-engineered. According to their theory, this is also true (in a way), because then Omicron would just be a phase in the reversion of Sars-Covid-2 to its laboratory roots, where it could have been engineered to produce a live-attenuated vaccine against coronaviridae.

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Sorry if this is a stupid question, but with regards to hospitalizations….if someone goes to the hospital for an entirely different reason and happens to also test positive for COVID, are they counted as a COVID hospitalization? I was just thinking with how Omicron is more transmissible, this would mean way more incidents of people being in the hospital (and possibly dying) who just incidentally also have it. I recall watching a YouTube video of Dr Campbell a few days ago where he said a large percentage of the people in the hospital with omicron in South Africa were there for a different reason.

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It is not a stupid question at all. If someone is brought to an ER with a motorcycle injury, and has Omicron, it is probably not omicron. Now if someone shows up with a non-covid symptom and Omicron, and then 100 more show up with that symptom and Omicron, then maybe Omicron has new symptoms?

Also if hospital admissions rise by a lot along with Omicron, it is probably related also.

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What I’m wondering though is if motorcycle guy is still counted as a COVID hospitalization in the data, simply for being in the hospital while having COVID. So for example, say a hospital has 20 patients with COVID. Three of them have symptoms (legitimate cases) and the other 17 patients are there for a variety of other reasons (car accident, appendicitis, broken leg… whatever). If you looked at the hospitalization data, would it say this hospital has 20 COVID hospitalizations? Or do they use common sense and not report the 17? I’m already under the assumption that if someone dies of a heart attack and has COVID, they will be counted as a COVID death even though it may have had nothing to do with it. Just not sure how hospitalizations are counted.

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I am not sure about Britain but have read in the US, if you test positive for Covid (regardless of the reason you’re admitted) you get put in a Covid ward and thus are counted as a Covid case. If they ask and you say you are vaxxed, I think they don’t test unless you have symptoms.

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Ok, that’s what my guess was. So in theory, with a more transmissible variant, we are going to see many more instances of COVID hospitalizations and deaths that are not actually COVID related. The way they do things here in US at least, is so stupid. We’ll never know the actual numbers, or even close to it, with the bogus counts.

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In Britain you have to watch the language they use…hospitalised WITH Omicron would be motorbike guy…hospitalised FROM Omicron would be someone admitted specifically suffering because they had the virus.

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I note that there's other evidence for negative vaccine effectiveness for Omicron variant (a proper balanced cohort study from Neil Ferguson's group at Imperial College, no less -- though I note they've not actually publicised this very important finding -- weird).

I've put a post up about it -- https://bartram.substack.com/p/even-more-negative-vaccine-efficiency

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Firstly, Omicron showing up is very odd, at least when compared to other variants. Secondly, its infectivity ( somewhere they stated up 70x more infectious to Bronchial tss.) is also very strange. What I think can happen is this: 1. Either ADE and Omicron is not intentionally engineered 2. Making push to infect those that until now had superior mucosal nasal response (especially children) and around 10% of others. It could be that Omicron may become more pathological as its extremely infectious and can afford going that way . Just thoughts.. :)

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I firmly believe that omicron was engineered and I even wrote an article about it. I did not update it with latest heritage graphs because I wanted to keep it original. "Yuri Deigin" posted a lot of materials about that matter on Twitter.

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/urgent-omicron-variant-likely-to

If so, why would someone engineer it? To help us? Or to hurt us? Is Omikron a part of the original plan? We cannot possibly know this with certainty, but we can think about it.

A perfect bioweapon spreads extremely fast, seems mild in the beginning (so that there is less effort to stop it), but has a severe delayed effect on some categories of people. Is Omicron designed to be a perfect bioweapon? I have no idea. Maybe yes and maybe no. This is an "unknown unknown" but we can think about it.

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Excellent article, Igor, as always. I really appreciate you keeping us updated and informed.

With regards to omicron, I too believe it's intended and part of the plan. Here's my take on all this, in a nutshell...

All these variants thus far have just been samples, so to speak. Sure they've served their purpose, but the killer strain is yet to be released.

I believe this will only happen once a sufficient percentage of the population has been fully vaccinated. If they release the killer variant now, we'll notice the majority of deaths occurring amongst the vaccinated, which would lead to nobody else wanting to take the vaccine.

Bearing this in mind, it makes sense for omicron to be milder than other variants. Right now, they need to push the vaccine agenda hard.

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Hi. I have a crazy idea, very much along the lines of what you said, that Omicron was meant to be the coup de gras for the vaccinated. I do not talk about it much because there is no evidence whatsoever and it is pointless to spread out baseless theories. But at the same time, what else could it be? Anyway, yes it was possibly developed based on a two year old variant, or even pre-Wuhan test candidate virus, to deliver this coup de gras when everyone gets vaxxed. But not everyone got vaxxed and the vax rates flatlined, so no point in waiting any longer, so they just released it.

It would be terrible if true, and I hope that all this remains just a wacky shower thought.

Let's now go back to our regularly scheduled programming.

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