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Is Geert's Prediction of a Deadlier Covid Variant Coming True?
Excess deaths jump to 20-36% above normal. Does Covid cause delayed deaths that we miss?
SUMMARY: Excess mortality in Europe has been elevated at about 15% since last spring. In December 2022, excess deaths frighteningly jumped to 30-35% above normal. Even Sweden, which avoided excess mortality in most of 2022, had 20% more deaths than expected in December. Has the vaccine-selected deadly Covid variant predicted by Geert Vanden Bossche finally arrived?
The Doomsday Prophecy of Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche
I always admired Dr. Vanden Bossche for his stance against the Covid vaccine. Unlike many vaccine skeptics such as myself, Geert, a professional vaccinologist, was previously employed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and therefore had much to lose from opposing “Covid vaccines.”
Since March 2021, Geert predicted, with much dramatization on his part, that a much more virulent, or deadly, variant of Covid-19 will appear due to mass vaccination. Such a variant, he said, will affect people whose immune systems were focused by repeated vaccine shots towards the extinct original Wuhan virus. Such overboosted persons could not mount a defense against newer escape variants.
Months passed, and hopes appeared that Geert’s prediction was a mistake. (nobody wants excess deaths, right?)
Until December of 2022, that is.
Data from the EU, Germany, Sweden, and the UK show a sudden rise in overall deaths far beyond what 2022 already brought: from 10-15% excess mortality to 25-36% excess mortality compared to pre-pandemic levels. Excess mortality in December peaked at the following levels: UK at about 20%, Germany at 36%, Sweden at 22%, EU at 35%.
Here are the sudden jumps in mortality:
Many Covid skeptics praised Sweden for low mortality in the past. Please be aware that Sweden, in December, had a disturbingly high 20% excess mortality on par with the rest of Europe.
What caused this jump in mortality?
This December Jump Cannot be Attributed to Covid Vaccines Alone.
I am against Covid vaccines. I am firmly opposed to recklessly injecting billions of people with unproven, untested genetic injections that transfect people with mRNA expressing HIV-peptide-carrying genes from a lab-made mystery virus. Covid vaccines caused 278,000 deaths in the USA in 2021 alone!
However, if vaccines alone caused excess deaths, and Covid played no role, we would not see strange up-and-down waves like in the charts above. Excess mortality waves resemble the Covid pandemic's waves, coming up and down.
Does Covid play a larger role in excess mortality than we think? Is the interplay between waves of Covid and Covid vaccinations instrumental to explaining excess mortality of late 2022?
Fabian Spieker did excellent research comparing vaccinations against excess mortality in Germany. He produced charts for all German federal lands, one of which I modified to make my point, comparing excess non-Covid deaths in one of the German Bundeslands with vaccine doses given:
You can see that early vaccination (circled part) shows excess deaths explainable by Covid vaccines given during the same period. Fabian showed conclusively that initial vaccine shots killed people in Germany. He estimated one out of 1,642 Germans per dose given was killed by the initial Covid vaccinations, which is in line with other estimates.
However, after the initial series of shots, excess non-Covid mortality remained elevated but stopped tracking vaccine doses given. Had the vaccines been the only cause, the excess mortality curve would look relatively smooth and steady, whatever the underlying mechanism for long-term vaccine damage could be.
The wavy mortality pattern leaves me with no explanation other than thinking that Covid plays an underappreciated role in excess deaths. In other words, if Covid hypothetically disappeared in early 2022, the mortality curves would look different from what we are observing.
Mortality would not have obvious waves if infections and variants did not play a role.
Here’s a chart of California's excess mortality. I used California death data and calculated excess mortality as the number of deaths in a given month, compared to the average of deaths for 2017-2019. On top of the mortality chart, I overlaid the chart for wastewater Covid RNA levels for one of California’s counties. You can see that mortality roughly follows Covid infection levels.
Sweden and the UK experienced recent Covid waves and greatly increased excess mortality. They also seem to match pretty well:
If so, we can ask: are we undercounting COVID deaths? Do recent covid infections and reinfections explain many “sudden deaths”? In my opinion, yes.
Saying that Covid deaths are undercounted would be unpopular with many vaccine skeptics.
In the past, Covid deaths were overcounted for propaganda purposes.
That changed in 2022 when authorities worldwide could no longer hide the ineffectiveness of vaccines. Covid tests can now be done at home, and if someone dies of a heart attack three weeks after a Covid infection, such a death would not be counted as a Covid death without a recorded test.
This undercounting of Covid deaths is not a coincidence but a way to avoid explaining why vaccines are not working.
Except no one can hide excess mortality.
Covid Caused Delayed Deaths Even in 2020
Even mild Covid infections cause deaths. This UK Biobank study (Mar 2020-2021) shows the risk of death after a mild Covid infection to be several times that of the background rate. (this estimate seems awfully high to me)
In the Veterans Administration study, reinfections were found to be even worse than initial infections, increasing the risk of post-acute death even further, with vaccines not being helpful at all:
So, Covid is a bad illness, and it is not a good thing to be reinfected.
If so, does the latest jump in deaths signify a deadlier than before Covid variant, perhaps causing more deaths than in the past? Are the deaths delayed? Is this the deadly “Geert Variant” that Mr. Vanden Bossche predicted?
Delayed Deaths Do Not Select for Milder Variants
There is a stereotype about viruses becoming milder because the deadlier variants do not spread as easily. It makes intuitive sense. An illness that makes people super sick would not spread as well because the sicker people tend to stay home in bed.
However, if an infection causes death well after the person ceases to be infectious, there is no evolutionary pressure for the virus to become milder.
If Covid infections and reinfections cause delayed deaths, such as “sudden deaths” described below, then it makes sense that the virus would never evolve to cause fewer such deaths. These delayed deaths seem to be recorded mostly as cardiovascular deaths by coroners.
UK data suggests that the three heart-related categories explain much of the UK’s excess mortality.
Not all excess deaths are due to recent Covid infections, but many could be.
Such sudden deaths puzzle authorities. They cannot be pinned down to vaccines taken a long time ago. Such deaths cannot even be certainly attributed to Covid. And yet they are plentiful. They include Gwen Casten, Bob Saget, Kelly Ernby, and many others:
This excess mortality is mysteriously absent in barely-vaccinated countries such as Bulgaria or South Africa.
This absence is evident when excess mortality in late 2022 is analyzed against vaccination levels. The more vaccines - the greater the mortality!
While that association was already published by me and even checked by Martin Neil and Norman Fenton, this article adds that Covid likely plays a larger role in excess mortality than anyone is willing to admit.
In other words: if Covid magically disappeared - so would many excess deaths.
Of course, Covid did disappear in countries with low vaccination rates and herd immunity, such as Bulgaria or South Africa, which experienced no excess mortality in December (see above).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, in highly vaccinated countries, more vaccine doses mean more infections, as El Gato Malo explains. And these infections come with health consequences.
The greater-than-usual excess mortality in December could be explained by one of two things:
Covid became deadlier than usual, as Geert Vanden Bossche predicted
Covid is as pathogenic as always, but repeat reinfections wear people down and make previously healthy persons susceptible to worse outcomes, due to IgG4 immune tolerance.
I hope that we can figure out what is happening.
I was warning about reinfections last March:
The authorities do not care.
Watch this sad one-minute video, please. A UK parliamentarian asks the health minister why people are dying at excess rates in the UK. The health minister explains that “it is not just the UK, it is in Europe also” as if that was an acceptable explanation.
What concerns me the most is that while the waves of mortality are coming and going, they are getting worse instead of better. In addition, there is nothing that I can see that can stop this unfortunate progression.
Do you think that we will “return back to normal” when it comes to excess deaths?