60 Comments

My high risk, unvaccinated, pregnant sister in law is recovering from omicron. She was tired for 5 days and is now fine—her other children had no symptoms. It’s mild, and by all other accounts, it’s mild. Many of the hospitalizations in South Africa were patients admitted for other conditions that incidentally tested positive while hospitalized. This is not Delta, and it’s not even close to SARS.

Expand full comment

Agreed. 100%.

Expand full comment

It's going to be interesting to see if it also hits the "minorities" in Europe who generally have a far lower level of vitamin D in their blood.

I am getting so sick of being told to vaccinate i am kind of hoping there is a mass ADE event. Literally all my family is jabbed. Ive told them all to be extremely safe as omicron could go rouge on the vaxxed and under NO circumstances be the first in line for the Omivax. they think I'm a bit case though.

I'd hate to say I told you so at a funeral.

support my blog if you like!!

Expand full comment

Some months ago I hoped for some kind of ADE event purely because I was hoping something would make them stop before they started jabbing the children. My hope was that enough jabbed adults getting ill would wake the world up and no children would be jabbed. Alas, that did not happen and now we are hearing of so many children becoming ill or dying. Awful.

Expand full comment

Agree - the sooner we get CovIDIOTS dying like flies (and they see the unvaxxed thriving) the sooner they'll shut their fat mouths. They'll want to attack us but they'll be too busy sucking air from ventilators to be much of a threat.

Expand full comment

Just imagine a world in which these leaky vaccines lead to a variant that uses OAS to produce a ADE pathway in the vaccinated . . . and people think I'm a fool for being unvaccinated , though I do have the benefit of natural immunity.

Expand full comment

When are vaccines cr*p and when are they driving OAS? Could omicron not be OAS happening before our eyes? I am not sure how OAS would be determined as it is happening or whether it would be something that people look back on 5 or 10 years later and say "Ah, that was the great OAS pandemic of 2022 that started in 2021 when they jabbed everyone."

Expand full comment

should be NUT CASE

Expand full comment

You can edit comments now. Click the three dots. “Reply delete …”

Expand full comment

What a great blog! Thanks for letting us know about it.

Expand full comment

I golf in Florida with a whole bunch of people who got the two shots last Feb/Mar and now the booster this December. We all knew who and when our buddies got the shot and the overwhelming side effect was extreme fatigue. Many tried to golf the next day and were quite stoic until about the 10th hole, then they would be forced to literally walk off early; most never made it to the first tee. A few told me that it was two weeks before they didn't feel that extreme fatigue. So wondering if this is some kind of cover for the booster season.

Expand full comment

I lived in Hong Kong through SARS ... there was a daily death count at that time as well.... one wonders if that too was a man-made virus and part of early experimentation in anticipation of the global experiment the CovIDIOTS have enrolled themselves in.....

Without a doubt these Covid vaccines were created long before Covid emerged...

https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/

Expand full comment

While 73 percent of new COVID cases are omicron, only one American has died with this variant. That man had underlying pre-existing medical issues and was in the high-risk group. Furthermore, we only know he died with the viral antigen present. Autopsy results have not been released to explain whether he died with or because of the virus.

The next fact comes from South Africa where omicron was first reported. Their experience, admittedly short-term, shows that omicron is behaving predictably. As COVID adapts, from alpha to omicron and thus presumably 13 mutations, the virus becomes more contagious but less dangerous medically. In other words, omicron is not a significant medical hazard.

Expand full comment

Sorry if I forgot, did you see my article on South Africa hospitalizations?

Expand full comment

Yes.... You seemed to have missed circling and including the 70% drop in hospitalisations on week 51 on your chart in drawing your doomsday calculations.

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — South Africa's noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country's dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.

Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations. But they are offering one tantalizing hint — far from conclusive yet — that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike, which it appears to have done on week 51.

Expand full comment

Week 51 is not over yet and not yet filled with data.

They actually added more hospitalizations to the four weeks I selected, since I posted my article. I am not going to change it, but instead of 9.60% hospitalization with Omicron, we now have 9.86% hospitalization with Omicron for the same weeks, because of these revisions.

And Delta is 11.44%.

Expand full comment

How many weeks in your year? I will not be surprised that people that have three injections of the spike protein who are infected feel the effects of the buildup of the deadly spike protein in their system after three injections, even with a milder version of Covid. The spike protein causes the long term damage. Once it enters various organs the damage is done. Adding more with every injection makes it more deadly.

“We made a big mistake. We didn’t realize it until now,” said Byram Bridle, a viral immunologist and associate professor at University of Guelph, Ontario. “We thought the spike protein was a great target antigen, we never knew the spike protein itself was a toxin and was a pathogenic protein. So by vaccinating people we are inadvertently inoculating them with a toxin.”

The biodistribution study obtained by Bridle shows the COVID spike protein gets into the blood where it circulates for several days post-vaccination and then accumulates in organs and tissues including the spleen, bone marrow, the liver, adrenal glands and in “quite high concentrations” in the ovaries.

Expand full comment

I believe that the last week is not filled. Look at my circled picture showing something like 26xx hospitalizations for week 51. Now look at the datcov report again, you see that hte latest week is now at 4783 hosps, so it is increasing as the week is filled with data. Note that they add data to previous weeks also. Check it out.

sorry for typos, I am sitting with my laptop outside in the cold

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211224.pdf

Expand full comment

The vast majority of deaths they have no idea what variant they died from, because they don't do sequencing for them.

Expand full comment

The World was a better more rational place before testing for viruses.

Expand full comment

I think you're really getting it wrong on this one, Igor. Numerous studies now show pretty definitively that Omicron is extremely mild and is simply a cold in the large majority of cases. When the mainstream is saying this, and this assertion is counter-narrative (that the sky is falling) we can have additional confidence that the new findings about Omicron are probably accurate. Yes, I agree ADE is still a potentially very serious issue and the massive push toward more and ever more boosters may and probably will backfire. But for now the Omicron thing appears to be pretty clearly a nothing burger. This is a good thing. We should celebrate this. It is great evidence that we are more clearly than ever fully in casedemic territory. And the faster people get clued in to this the faster we can exit casedemic and pandemic territory and get back to some semblance of real life. https://tamhunt.medium.com/yes-we-are-well-into-casedemic-territory-in-the-us-7f20d5aacf6e

Expand full comment

Numerous studies show also that it is not mild. I do not usually cite them just because I do not "like" the sources or because I want to write stuff that other people did not yet write about. Imperial College, whom I do not like due to being financed by Bill Gates, thinks that Omicron is 10% milder than Delta (just as the estimate in my South Africa article). UKHSA thinks that it is 30% milder based on apples to apples comparison in UK. I do like UKHSA but I am not sure if they had enough data yet. South Africa is three weeks ahead of us and has plenty of hospitalization data already, which is what I used.

Expand full comment

Links? I’ve not seen these studies and I try hard not to cherrry pick (not saying you are)

Expand full comment

This article by Dr Gurdasani kinda of dances around the elephant in the room -- severity for the the vaccinated -- but it gives a good summary.

https://www.pmp-magazine.com/2021/12/23/on-the-imperial-college-study-on-omicron-severity/

Here's the imperial college report.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-22-COVID19-Report-50.pdf

Look at table 2. Omicron:Delta hazard ration for "all symptomatic cases" is 0.88.

So according to Imperial College, which I personally do not like due to being Bill Gates funded, Omicron is 0.88 times less dangerous than Delta when it comes to hospitalizations.

It looks less dangerous, but not really much less dangerous.

According to my South Africa calculations, done completely differently, Omicron is 9.60/11.44 times less likely to result in hospitalization.

9.6/11.44 = 0.84.

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/south-africa-omicron-about-as-severe

Note that since my article, SA revised hospitalizations for those weeks and added extra hospitalizations. I decided NOT to revise my article -- I only revise them for typos and misspellings or to add something in the next day or so -- but the real South Africa rate ends up being 9.86/11.44 = 86% as likely to result in hospitalizations.

I hate to agree with Imperial college on anything, but at this point it looks like Imperial College says 88% and I say 86%, which is pretty close.

Expand full comment

Covid hospitalizations (including ICU) are rising very quickly in NYC, the current epicenter of Omicron in the U.S: https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary

Expand full comment

Holy smokes!!! Select "New York City" and "3 months" and "new hospital admissions".

You will be shocked!!!

Mild, my ass

Expand full comment

I dunno what to tell you all except the severe fatigue from communism is horrible.

Like really bad...worse that all the other ones imo

Expand full comment

I hope you and Dan are wrong. His Golden Silkworm pieces, while long, is one of the most logical if not frightening explanations of this whole shit show

Expand full comment

I spent hours reading it last night trying to understand it. He helped on twitter with some clarifications. I think that I will shell out the $$ to subscribe to him also.

I still have hopes that Omicron will be mild, but my hopes are kind of evaporating, sadly.

Expand full comment

He seems to be trying to blame the virus (whether Polio, or SARS-CoV-2) for "remembering" optimal biochemical motifs that are built into the niche. Analogous to saying water "remembers" how to be a river every time the snow melts. Well, no. It's just that the ground is grooved that way; and even if the groove was made by water the dynamics were largely predetermined by the ground. Same for viruses. While his views on viruses "as fires" and genetic swarms are valid, they are not necessary to explain deattenuation and I don't see why he goes that route.

Polio Virus "deattenuates" because the original niche is still there waiting to be filled. Also it probably didn't take 65 years. Probably has been happening all along. It was never very deadly to begin with anyway.

Expand full comment

I’ll have to read it again, as that wasn’t my take, it was more so that the LAV failed and as a result the Virus used in the LAV is returning to optimal form, but also evolving based on traits used to get it to a state to be a LAV

Expand full comment

And I'm pointing out that "optimal form" isn't stored in the virus, it's built into the host/niche. There is no need to locate the explanation for optimization in the "hidden viral swarm memory."

His references to Polio are a red herring. Deattenuation (via serial passage through host cells) is potentially lethal for injected LAV/IAV vaccines, because they have circumvented the mucosal immune defenses. The flip-side is that the attenuated virus is disadvantaged in "escaping" back into the wild (where it usually already is anyway) since it is not in the tissue it normally uses to spread.

For the OPV both dangers were irrelevant. It's ok if the training wheels fell off the bike as the virus spread from one host cell to the next since the immune system got a few practice rides and the virus was never that deadly to begin with. Result was ~9 paralysis cases from the vaccine per year which is why we stupidly returned to IPV (https://www.historyofvaccines.org/timeline#EVT_100337). In reality the Sabin Virus probably deattenuates in every recipient, reenters the pre-existing Polio Virus niche. That's how serial passage works. (Hence why the IPV is stupid, because it may be leaving the niche empty for the upcoming generation, implying lifelong vulnerability to the virus due to under-developed mucosal immunity /tangent). The OPV has no relevance to SARS-CoV-2.

If there's a more optimal niche out there that SARS-CoV-2 hasn't found yet, then it will find it. Does not require "rediscovering" lost traits.

Expand full comment

Well, my half brothers mom got polio from him, via her not being vaccinated and poor hand hygiene when changing him. Within five years was paralyzed waist down and spent her life in a wheelchair. So, you are probably correct on the IPV.

Still Re reading and right now, my take is the risk costs of a LAV isn’t worth the benefits a LAV affords

Expand full comment

Ha, it took me a week to put together enough time to sit and read it.

Expand full comment

yep, it is hard reading

Expand full comment

I read both parts and sent it to one of my Doctor clients. I originally sent him that early pdf of C-19 worldwide studies averaging out at IFR 0.38%. My favorite part was the odd progression of the English Sweat.

Expand full comment

I also loved the English Sweat part.

Expand full comment

My concern is what comes after Omicron... Whether it developed in lab or wild-type mice, it seems like it is just starting to evolve in people. If it loses one or two more binding sites for vaccinated people's antibodies, it could be very serious for them

Expand full comment

There was a Forbes article that theorized that Omicron sprang up via the trial for Molunipvar (sp?) as that medication is known to cause those kinds of mutations.

Expand full comment

The argument is weak. SARS-CoV-2 already favors C->U mutations (the kind prompted by Molnupiravir) so hypothetical "Molnupiravir mutation" is the same flavor as "vanilla mutation." Whereas Omicron features a novel signature in regions not favored by Molnupiravir.

Expand full comment

I would't believe anything I read on Forbes. It's Chinese owned and is a Globalist mouthpiece now.

Expand full comment

What a great article. Thank you for writing this. It is very interesting.

Expand full comment

Thank you. I found this possibility to be very interesting and exciting as well. Wow

Expand full comment

Omikron is Mers-Cov-2. It uses the celullar receptor DPP4, same as Mers-Cov. My personal belief is that Mers-Cov was actually H. influenzae (M. influenzae). 1915-1917: worldwide pandemic of coronavirus (actually M. avium). Then in 1918 H. influenzae arrived with a huge wave. 2019-2021: worldwide pandemic of coronavirus (actually M. avium and Chlamydia pneumoniae). Is Omikron the first sign of Mers-Cov-2? Looks like it.

Expand full comment

Can you explain this in more detail please. It sounds complicated but very exciting. As this is an older thread, make you can email me a copy at ichudov,,gmail thanks

Expand full comment

reminds me of that vaccine derived polio epidemic in sudan not too long ago..thanks gates and gavi lol ! few months back there were several pre clinical trials using clenbuterol for the covaids, now they all disappeared bar one. smells fishy

Expand full comment

Omicron has a time to severe illness 8 or 9 days shorter than Delta. 8 to 9 days vs 17 days for Delta. This means that rather than comparing the current hospitalization rate to the new case rate from 14 days ago you need to compare it to the rate only 5 or 6 days ago. Likewise with comparing the current death rate to the case rate from some time ago when those who died would have first tested positive. You need to check against a date that is more recent because Omicron progresses more quickly. If you do this you'll see that Omicron is indeed far milder than Delta.

Expand full comment

Um, that is what I did! In my south Africa article, I used a week lag between "cases" and "hospitalizations", both for Omicron as well as for Delta.

Read it:

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/south-africa-omicron-about-as-severe

Or are you referring to some other calculation?

This lead (lag) time is unknown yet, so I used a week to be conservative..

Expand full comment

I didn't realize that. I assumed that you used the same lag time for both variants. If you used the same lag time for both variants but one of them actually has a shorter lag time than the other then, if you estimate the severity of the variant with the shorter lag time based on the lag time of the one with the longer lag time, you would overstate the severity of the new variant that has the shorter lag time. But I guess you used the best estimate of the lag time for each variant separately so my comment doesn't apply.

Expand full comment

When Omicron is increasing exponentially, it is hard to guess lag time from just case and death curves. So I picked a week to use the same lag for both Omicron and Delta.

A cohort study could find that out but I cannot do it.

Now when the case and death curves BOTH turn in one country, we can know much, much more.

Expand full comment

"Omicron is not a progression of Covid19, it is REGRESSION to SARS"

Okay, but that seems to conflict with your previous alert, “URGENT -- Omicron "variant" likely to be man-made”.

Expand full comment

Not really, I still think that Omicron is lab made. But it is made to be closer to sars-1

Expand full comment

the study was published nearly two weeks ago.

delayed danger?

proved to be bullshit.

read the study carefully and you will notice that the authors claim that getting omicron will help reach better immunity especially among the vaccinated.

not among those that already had the infection.

in other words: vaccination does not protect from infection.

learn to read between the lines man.

symptoms?

the symptoms look exactly the same as those for the flu.

omicron as severe as delta?

earlier on i pointed out why that statement is incorrect.

Expand full comment

BOOM!

‘Striking Increase’: NY Urgent Advisory as Child COVID Hospitalizations Quadruple

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/striking-increase-ny-urgent-advisory-to-pediatricians-as-child-covid-hospitalizations-quadruple/3467510/

Expand full comment

This could be fake news to get kids vaccinated, also, be careful

Expand full comment

Yes good point... I got so excited about CovIDIOTS dying that I forgot to think.

Expand full comment

Washington Post did a similar article about pediatric hospitalizations with a similar fear inducing headline only to say this in the article..... "U.S. doctors interviewed this week said that while they are seeing record positive results from children’s coronavirus tests, the vast majority of cases so far have been mild and look a lot like the common cold."

Expand full comment

4x nothing is still nothing.

Expand full comment

quadruple of what? percentages mean absolutely nothing when you don't know what the starting number is. Just like the risk reduction from vaccines, if your in a very low-risk group then lowering your baseline tiny risk isn't really that impressive.

Expand full comment