Hospital admissions will continue to go up whether the person has mild or severe symptoms as long as there is a financial incentive to administer a pcr test (money to the hospital) and if the person is admitted-jackpot, 13,000 dollars, maybe a little less if the person doesn't have Medicaid. From day 1 there has been financial incentives to give test, admit to hospitals and put on vents. After all hospitals are businesses.
Thank you again for the work you do with your substack. It's great to see different opinions about what's going on, with all sides of the Control Group seemingly more than willing to take a risk in their projections, invite scrutiny, and adjust beliefs as more information comes in.
In the MSM-driven panic shitstorm that the past two years has been with hysterical blathering based on fear and power grabs by incompetent politicians and bureaucrats pretending to be real scientists, it's really nice to be reminded that there are still rational people who want the best for society and are willing to engage in honest discourse.
Thanks, but By the way: it is likely the COVID-19 cases by vaccination status chart has a mistake or I am missing something big. The vaxed vase rate is lower for any age group than the "all ages" chart. Am I missing anything? I saw it before but I lost the URL, so thanks
Ontario is supposedly going to be differentiating between those hospitalized "with" covid from those hospitalized "because of" covid, I'm hoping this will be available this week. The Ontario Chief Medical Officer guesstimated about 50% of all reported hospitalizations were "with" covid so the hospitalizations should go down.
How do you know who was hospitalized with omicron and who with delta? Regular tests in testing facilities do not distinguish between the variants. Usually a (hopefully) representative sub-sample is tested by the health department where they supposedly can distinguish between the variants. But I doubt they will be able to figure out a proportion of ICU patients with either virus type.
If I read these stacks well, Omicron infection replicates faster than Delta creating antibodies that are effective against Delta, if not harmed by immune issues created by the vaccine. But I am no expert at all. Please, someone with more knowledge correct me.
Right, but without that data, how can you be sure it is an influx of 'mild omicron' happening to the hospitals right now? Another possibility is Delta, egged on by lots of people doing boosters in the last few weeks?
Look. I do my best, with the data that I have. I cannot really have data that I cannot get. I dig stuff up and post my findings. If you find something I could use, let me know. We are trying to connect the dots here, we do not have things perfectly laid out for us.
Hm, what if we find the data for ICU ratios for respiratory virus hospitalizations pre-covid?
Assuming "financial insentives" hypothesis those should be noticeably higher, I think: there would be less insentive to admit people, meaning that those admitted are sicker on average, leading to higher ICU ratios
In NYC, Omicron became dominant a couple weeks ago. Hospitalizations began surging there about a week after cases began surging from Omicron. Seems fairly obvious.
You could be right. An alternate possibility is that as 'omi' cases started to rise, people did a mad dash toward boosters, and consequently received 1-2 weeks of increased vulnerability to whatever was circulating, which still includes delta.
Boosters definitely increase vulnerability and probably worsen outcomes, as one is forced to battle booster spikes mixed with Covid spikes as a death cocktail.
The increase of hospitalizations and ICU numbers doesn’t mean COVID. Personally I believe it’s seasonal and vaccine injury that is causing the increase. When over all mortality is increasing it makes sense that these other numbers are increasing too. Just my thoughts :)
Not for NYC, I do not. I would love to know breakdown of hospitalization by variant and vax status. But I bet that criminal NYC leadership will hide this data.
For what it's worth, I remember reading about how in some hospitals, due to reduced staff (i.e. doctors and nurses quitting or being fired for being non-vax), their available beds are in relation to available staff. They might have 200 beds, for example, but only enough staff to cover 100 beds. So if 100 beds are filled, that hospital would be reported as "full" even though technically 100 more beds are empty. Another thing I've wondered is how these ICU figures would differ in a year with a bad flu, and lots of pneumonia cases etc.
I wonder If most of those are still the Delta strain though. That’s because they revised the numbers a week or two ago, and while Omicron is quickly spreading, Delta was still responsible for most cases. Here in Dutchess County NY, which is an hour north of the city, the infection rate has shot up to 16.55% but hospitalizations haven’t moved much and are still below 100.
How government will respond if your observations are accurate is the question. It cannot/will not admit it’s complicity or let others do so with impunity. Double down and call out Snowball’s dogs? Declare open season on the unvaccinated?
Thanks. Really enjoy your analysis and willingness to be a contrarian if that is where the data leads you. Crazy shit is an understatement. If your low estimate is halved and “only” 300,000 die during the upcoming Omicron wave from Omicron, inadequate care, by our misguided healthcare response, or by all three, they no doubt will use it to usher in an age of totalitarian control and persecution of the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated will either submit and be quietly absorbed into the Borg collective or resist and...
Keep doing what you are doing. My pea brain couldn't even grasp half of what yours done. I am not criticising. I am deeply appreciative of you and what you are doing
Thank you for that link, I went and looked at the Dec. 31 report and on page 2 it counts the unvaccinated in hospital with this note at the bottom: "From the above table, 39.3% of hospitalised cases in London were unvaccinated. London is currently the largest and most robust data set of the regions and reflects the importance of vaccine uptake." I realize you are looking at ICU only, but that table seems to reflect that the unvaccinated, at least, are more prone to hospitalisations in the UK, is that correct? Honestly, I was kind of hoping it would be the other way around...
Overall in England, 25% of ppl are vaccine-free (I try not to say unvaccinated), and 25% of Omicron hospitalized are vaccine-free.
I am sure that you can find a certain small group of people, like "Boosted with Moderna more than 2 weeks ago but less than 8 weeks ago" will demonstrate "protection".
That's not really evidence that the vaccine is good, it just shows that it has a short term effect, at a cost.
Does the definition of unvaxxed include those who have had only 1 shot? The key is to look at what is considered unvaxxed...but you probably looked into it with these figures...I understand the UK data is much much better than ours...
Can anyone tell me how they know if it is Omnicron positive or Delta?
My Pregnant niece was tested by her doctor BUT could not tell her what strain.
How do they test for the difference?
Omnicron has a very high R value.. Almost 8..delta I think was under 2.. Just means more high risk people will get it faster than we are used to.best data is who is in the hospital because of Covid-19 and what is there age, overweight?, diabetic etc..
"Scientists use whole genome analysis to confirm which variant has caused a Covid infection, but PCR tests can sometimes give an indication. About half of the PCR machines in the UK look for three genes in the virus, but Omicron (and the Alpha variant before it) test positive on only two of them. This is because Omicron, like Alpha, has a genetic change called a deletion in the “S” or spike gene. The glitch means that PCR tests that display so-called “S gene target failure” are highly suggestive of Omicron infections."
NOTE: My problem with this technique is a two-thirds positive PCR match is being deemed Omicron or "highly suggestive" of Omicron. That is far from definitive! Why couldn't it be Alpha or some other variant that eludes spike identification? The only way to be certain is full genomic sequencing. See the next url.
"So, how in the world of math did the CDC, on Oct 2, 2021, get to 99.2% of all confirmed COVID cases in the US being caused by the Delta variant, when the Delta variant was only found in 3.8% of all genetic sequencing for the exact same time period? The same way they are now fraudulently claiming that 73.2% of all COVID cases on Dec 18, 2021, are the Omicron when the Omicron variant has been found in only 0.00028% of all genetic sequencing…"
NOTE: In the database used to track/collect genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, the author of the article, Dr. Ealy, found only six cases of Omicron. I've never heard of Dr. Ealy and didn't realize the public had access to the NIH "viral" database. Can't vouch for anything other than it raises serious questions about what is going on...
Not simply interesting…..the most frightening thing you may ever read.
Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
By Margaret Menge | The Center Square contributor Jan 1, 2022
“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.”
Hospital admissions will continue to go up whether the person has mild or severe symptoms as long as there is a financial incentive to administer a pcr test (money to the hospital) and if the person is admitted-jackpot, 13,000 dollars, maybe a little less if the person doesn't have Medicaid. From day 1 there has been financial incentives to give test, admit to hospitals and put on vents. After all hospitals are businesses.
Would hospitals let them in with a cold or anxiety…..You can bet your ass they are.
GOVERNMENT’S BOUNTY ON YOUR LIFE: HOSPITALS’ INCENTIVE PAYMENTS FOR COVID-19 ARE ABOUT $100K PER
The hospital payments include:
A “free” required PCR test in the Emergency Room or upon admission for every patient, with government-paid fee to hospital.
Added bonus payment for each positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
Another bonus for a COVID-19 admission to the hospital.
A 20 percent “boost” bonus payment from Medicare on the entire hospital bill for use of remdesivir instead of medicines such as Ivermectin.
Another and larger bonus payment to the hospital if a COVID-19 patient is mechanically ventilated.
More money to the hospital if cause of death is listed as COVID-19, even if patient did not die directly of COVID-19.
A COVID-19 diagnosis also provides extra payments to coroners.
However these incentives have not changed recently so they wouldn't necessarily change who gets hospitalized at this point.
yep, you both are right in your own ways
Thank you again for the work you do with your substack. It's great to see different opinions about what's going on, with all sides of the Control Group seemingly more than willing to take a risk in their projections, invite scrutiny, and adjust beliefs as more information comes in.
In the MSM-driven panic shitstorm that the past two years has been with hysterical blathering based on fear and power grabs by incompetent politicians and bureaucrats pretending to be real scientists, it's really nice to be reminded that there are still rational people who want the best for society and are willing to engage in honest discourse.
Cha-Ching!
$$$$$ is always a strong incentive to do the wrong thing!
FYI Igor
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations
Raw data by vaccination status is available for download on this site as well
This is a GREAT FIND!!! I just bookmarked it. What is the URL for case rates?
Cases are here
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread
They don't break deaths down by vax status unfortunately
Thanks, but By the way: it is likely the COVID-19 cases by vaccination status chart has a mistake or I am missing something big. The vaxed vase rate is lower for any age group than the "all ages" chart. Am I missing anything? I saw it before but I lost the URL, so thanks
Gotta look at the dates. They stopped updating individual age groups in October
Ah, that's what it is! Thanks a lot! What a pronounced vax failure!
Ontario has so many webpages for covid it's ridiculous, but there is a lot of data there for someone who knows what to do with it (ie. not me).
This page is one I've just come across: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/infectious-disease/covid-19-data-surveillance/covid-19-data-tool?tab=summary
This one is committed solely to variants of concern: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/diseases-and-conditions/infectious-diseases/respiratory-diseases/novel-coronavirus/variants.
They released an early estimate of Omicron severity found here at this link: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-enhanced-estimates-omicron-severity-study.pdf?sc_lang=en
And this one has the daily and weekly epidemiological summaries: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-epidemiologic-summaries-public-health-ontario
Ontario is supposedly going to be differentiating between those hospitalized "with" covid from those hospitalized "because of" covid, I'm hoping this will be available this week. The Ontario Chief Medical Officer guesstimated about 50% of all reported hospitalizations were "with" covid so the hospitalizations should go down.
Thank you for the work you are doing!
And why those hospitals are filling up with Omicron? OAS?
Oh good. I will wait up for it. Love your brain.
How do you know who was hospitalized with omicron and who with delta? Regular tests in testing facilities do not distinguish between the variants. Usually a (hopefully) representative sub-sample is tested by the health department where they supposedly can distinguish between the variants. But I doubt they will be able to figure out a proportion of ICU patients with either virus type.
I do not have that data and I would LOVE to have it.
If I read these stacks well, Omicron infection replicates faster than Delta creating antibodies that are effective against Delta, if not harmed by immune issues created by the vaccine. But I am no expert at all. Please, someone with more knowledge correct me.
I heard there is still a heavy mix of the two…
One bit of missing data in your analysis: whether the hospital admissions are in fact with Omicron, vs. Delta.
If I had that data I would be very happy
Right, but without that data, how can you be sure it is an influx of 'mild omicron' happening to the hospitals right now? Another possibility is Delta, egged on by lots of people doing boosters in the last few weeks?
Look. I do my best, with the data that I have. I cannot really have data that I cannot get. I dig stuff up and post my findings. If you find something I could use, let me know. We are trying to connect the dots here, we do not have things perfectly laid out for us.
You do a damn good job with the crap stats you have to deal with. No apologies.
Fair enough. I guess I didn't see signs that you were uncertain about this in the writeup.
That is a very fair point.
Hm, what if we find the data for ICU ratios for respiratory virus hospitalizations pre-covid?
Assuming "financial insentives" hypothesis those should be noticeably higher, I think: there would be less insentive to admit people, meaning that those admitted are sicker on average, leading to higher ICU ratios
In NYC, Omicron became dominant a couple weeks ago. Hospitalizations began surging there about a week after cases began surging from Omicron. Seems fairly obvious.
I feel the same as you!
You could be right. An alternate possibility is that as 'omi' cases started to rise, people did a mad dash toward boosters, and consequently received 1-2 weeks of increased vulnerability to whatever was circulating, which still includes delta.
Boosters definitely increase vulnerability and probably worsen outcomes, as one is forced to battle booster spikes mixed with Covid spikes as a death cocktail.
The increase of hospitalizations and ICU numbers doesn’t mean COVID. Personally I believe it’s seasonal and vaccine injury that is causing the increase. When over all mortality is increasing it makes sense that these other numbers are increasing too. Just my thoughts :)
Thanks for your article.
In terms of severity - or mildness - mortality and duration of stay in hospital also very relevant. Rate of ICU entry is likely a tainted metric.
You definitely have a point, although the rate I discussed was "ICU beds".
fair enough. Do you have access to the mortality data? Though again, a far from perfect metric without knowledge of co morbidities etc.
Not for NYC, I do not. I would love to know breakdown of hospitalization by variant and vax status. But I bet that criminal NYC leadership will hide this data.
For what it's worth, I remember reading about how in some hospitals, due to reduced staff (i.e. doctors and nurses quitting or being fired for being non-vax), their available beds are in relation to available staff. They might have 200 beds, for example, but only enough staff to cover 100 beds. So if 100 beds are filled, that hospital would be reported as "full" even though technically 100 more beds are empty. Another thing I've wondered is how these ICU figures would differ in a year with a bad flu, and lots of pneumonia cases etc.
I wonder If most of those are still the Delta strain though. That’s because they revised the numbers a week or two ago, and while Omicron is quickly spreading, Delta was still responsible for most cases. Here in Dutchess County NY, which is an hour north of the city, the infection rate has shot up to 16.55% but hospitalizations haven’t moved much and are still below 100.
Good question. I wish I had data. I doubt that it is Delta by just looking at the curves.
How government will respond if your observations are accurate is the question. It cannot/will not admit it’s complicity or let others do so with impunity. Double down and call out Snowball’s dogs? Declare open season on the unvaccinated?
Some crazy shit is likely to follow, see my article "The Fog of Omicron"
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-fog-of-omicron
Thanks. Really enjoy your analysis and willingness to be a contrarian if that is where the data leads you. Crazy shit is an understatement. If your low estimate is halved and “only” 300,000 die during the upcoming Omicron wave from Omicron, inadequate care, by our misguided healthcare response, or by all three, they no doubt will use it to usher in an age of totalitarian control and persecution of the unvaccinated. The unvaccinated will either submit and be quietly absorbed into the Borg collective or resist and...
... the Borg will go the way of the Tower of Babel.
Igor, could you look at these numbers...and figure out if these are vaxxed in ICU, or unvaxxed? It might make a difference
I would absolutely love to have that data, but I do not have it. The UK released "Omicron reports" with that data, but they got discontinued.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview
Keep doing what you are doing. My pea brain couldn't even grasp half of what yours done. I am not criticising. I am deeply appreciative of you and what you are doing
And I am always appreciative of your feedback and support, thank you so much Duchess. Your comments are always on the mark and very pertinent.
Thank you for that link, I went and looked at the Dec. 31 report and on page 2 it counts the unvaccinated in hospital with this note at the bottom: "From the above table, 39.3% of hospitalised cases in London were unvaccinated. London is currently the largest and most robust data set of the regions and reflects the importance of vaccine uptake." I realize you are looking at ICU only, but that table seems to reflect that the unvaccinated, at least, are more prone to hospitalisations in the UK, is that correct? Honestly, I was kind of hoping it would be the other way around...
Overall in England, 25% of ppl are vaccine-free (I try not to say unvaccinated), and 25% of Omicron hospitalized are vaccine-free.
I am sure that you can find a certain small group of people, like "Boosted with Moderna more than 2 weeks ago but less than 8 weeks ago" will demonstrate "protection".
That's not really evidence that the vaccine is good, it just shows that it has a short term effect, at a cost.
That makes sense, thank you! I find the UK site confusing to determine vaccination rate.
Does the definition of unvaxxed include those who have had only 1 shot? The key is to look at what is considered unvaxxed...but you probably looked into it with these figures...I understand the UK data is much much better than ours...
Be interesting number infections not going to hospital at all compared to say Delta or other previous. Perhaps a milder amount…?
could be
Let’s hope it’s nothing major.
Delta is still hanging around.
Can anyone tell me how they know if it is Omnicron positive or Delta?
My Pregnant niece was tested by her doctor BUT could not tell her what strain.
How do they test for the difference?
Omnicron has a very high R value.. Almost 8..delta I think was under 2.. Just means more high risk people will get it faster than we are used to.best data is who is in the hospital because of Covid-19 and what is there age, overweight?, diabetic etc..
they have to do a full genetic sequence of the particular virus rna
it's doable, just takes more time & effort than pcr
Omicron can be detected by STGF on the PCR test, duckduckgo it
Something very strange is going on with the counting Omicron cases...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/07/scientists-find-stealth-version-of-omicron-not-identifiable-with-pcr-test-covid-variant
"Scientists use whole genome analysis to confirm which variant has caused a Covid infection, but PCR tests can sometimes give an indication. About half of the PCR machines in the UK look for three genes in the virus, but Omicron (and the Alpha variant before it) test positive on only two of them. This is because Omicron, like Alpha, has a genetic change called a deletion in the “S” or spike gene. The glitch means that PCR tests that display so-called “S gene target failure” are highly suggestive of Omicron infections."
NOTE: My problem with this technique is a two-thirds positive PCR match is being deemed Omicron or "highly suggestive" of Omicron. That is far from definitive! Why couldn't it be Alpha or some other variant that eludes spike identification? The only way to be certain is full genomic sequencing. See the next url.
https://www.americaoutloud.com/this-week-in-covid-stop-assuming-its-omicron-3-of-3/
"So, how in the world of math did the CDC, on Oct 2, 2021, get to 99.2% of all confirmed COVID cases in the US being caused by the Delta variant, when the Delta variant was only found in 3.8% of all genetic sequencing for the exact same time period? The same way they are now fraudulently claiming that 73.2% of all COVID cases on Dec 18, 2021, are the Omicron when the Omicron variant has been found in only 0.00028% of all genetic sequencing…"
NOTE: In the database used to track/collect genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, the author of the article, Dr. Ealy, found only six cases of Omicron. I've never heard of Dr. Ealy and didn't realize the public had access to the NIH "viral" database. Can't vouch for anything other than it raises serious questions about what is going on...
Thus is very interesting https://darbyshaw.substack.com/p/insurance-ceo-says-deaths-way-up?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozOTEzNjgzLCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0NjQ5MTQ1NiwiXyI6Ik1PbzFzIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQxMTY5MzIwLCJleHAiOjE2NDExNzI5MjAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi01MzQzMjIiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.cGTn80dWuLTKt-SmUATQ3H6FLaqkivQXH_wdoS7x3lo
Not simply interesting…..the most frightening thing you may ever read.
Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
By Margaret Menge | The Center Square contributor Jan 1, 2022
“What the data is showing to us is that the deaths that are being reported as COVID deaths greatly understate the actual death losses among working-age people from the pandemic. It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers.”
Excellent time to short big insurance companies. Wonder if the market shows this?
Theoretical notion only - they are TBTF, so will be put on taxpayer life support.
You're still looking at hospitalizations *with* and not *for*
Please re-read the last section of my article that addresses that specifically.
I don't see where the ED visits are broken down by reason either. They test *everybody* because a positive results in a cash prize.
OK, thanks