Ok, I'll throw in some personal experience here. Puzzling, to say the least. My son and his girlfriend were both here last Sunday thru Wednesday. Both of them fairly certainly had the original Covid in November-December 2019...they were at UC Davis then, a school that has a huge percentage of students from China and most especially, from Wuhan area. At the time, the doctors were totally puzzled about what they, and so many others in the area, were suffering from. They said "Something weird is going around and we don't know what it is." They were both fairly sick, but were fine after a couple of weeks. Therefore, I feel they had Covid and therefore would have natural immunity. They have both been fine since that time (almost 2 years), and are both unvaccinated. So back to 3 days ago, Wed. night of this week. They both became sick quite suddenly, by 6 a.m. Thursday, they went to the local hospital (this is CA) and she got a test that was positive for Covid, however they determined that. The same hospital wouldn't accept my son's insurance and they couldn't find a local test either, so he went untested. Did the hospital or anyone else give a damn about his status, whether he should be "counted" anywhere, whether he would spread it etc.? Nope, not an issue. So they went home, both were sick Thursday & Friday. He was a bit worse off than she was....headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, dizziness, no appetite. They basically just stayed in bed, drank tons of water, took a lot of vitamins such as D3, C, zinc. This morning he texted that he feels so much better now, he was able to sleep last night, so overall it was mostly a 48 hour thing at the worst. My son said this was similar to what they had in Nov. 2019 but milder. Finally, as I said, they were here with us (parents) and we are 72 and 75 (unvaxxed). We've been popping all the vitamin protocols for months, we exercise a lot and are in great health and are slim, and thus far we don't seem to have caught whatever they had even though they were here in the house up through Wednesday. Hard to know if it was Delta or Omicron. Or perhaps just a flu that they are pretending is Covid. So far so good, anyhow.
Those symptoms are typical of flu, which has retuned this winter. Oh, and flu typically hits its worst at day 3 and clears at day 5.
None of the covid tests is terribly reliable. False positives in antigen tests due to cross antibodies from prior coronavirus colds; false positives in pcr due to over sensitivity & based on theoretical sequencing from CCP.
That's what I'm struggling with here. Everyone on our side knows the PCR is useless, and the CDC has virtually admitted this. Yet many are also saying they have Covid or Omicron. And we seem to have forgotten that it's winter and a time when people get colds and seasonal flu. Am I missing something or have we become a nation of hypochondriacs?
It sure seems like all colds and flu have "transitioned" into being labeled as Covid. As for my son and his girlfriend, they had something that in my opinion sure resembled a type of flu, but due to the gf getting tested and the result was called Covid, who can tell at this point. Everything is tainted.
From so much I have read, it sure seems like those tests are next to worthless. Especially if they can't really distinguish one virus from another. So perhaps they had the flu, but of course the test couldn't really verify that.
Yup. And I'd add that 30 cycles is still a good 5 too many. They're still conflating exposures with infections. Tou could pick it up standing in the test line, catch it in your boogers, swab your boogers up and WOOT! POSITIVE!!!
Given the symptoms, which match typical coronavirus head cold and typical flu, they are worthless. If they ran 30 pcr cycles for whichever variant of flu is showing up, it would probably be positive too.
I believe rapid tests are less prone to false positives. I was sick 2 days ago and yesterday due to being too much outside in cold weather, thought it could be covid, rapid was negative.
I agree. My wife & I had Covid in Nov. She got it at a gathering of mostly fully-jabbed (some admitted later that they had had 'minor symptoms' at that gettogether) and then gave it to me. She got two negatives & I got one on the rapid home tests, even after we both had symptoms like cough and fatigue. But two days after each of us got a negative, our daughter convinced us to test again because we're old and the symptoms persisted. That time it was BINGO for both of us, confirmed later by a PCR at a local hospital. We began the FLCCC protocol with Ivermectin the day we rapid tested positive and both had a VERY MILD case, no fever, headache, loss of taste, or low oximeter readings. As I said, we're old and I credit our nothingburger cases to long use of supplements (zinc, Vit D3, C, quercetin, etc.) and the FLCCC/Ivermectin connection. My question is: What in hell is wrong with our healthcare system? Why does it actively suppress life-saving therapies?
I had the impression the rapid tests are fairly worthless, although this is an area of confusion for me at this point. I'm left with the feeling that none of the tests are all that reliable.
Their negatives are not very reliable, especially if you acquired the disease recently. The positive is usually on the mark, though. That's why most kits have two tests. If the first is negative, wait 36 hours and try the second.
I had to be tested a year AGO LAST March in order to see my Doctor,,had bad tummy troubles,,,turns out silly me,taking Too Much Magnesium.. I asked the Health Link nurse,,on the phone,and the nurse Covid testing me,,,what percentage of tests came back False Positive. One on phone said, oh,,only about 10-15%... testing nurse stated 10-18 or 20%. I asked,,,what if I fall into that category?
I would like to see a lengthy discussion by a knowledgeable person about the exact nature of these tests...the PCR tests in particular. For example, I've read that the test can't actually distinguish Omicron from Delta from flu etc, but I don't know if this is accurate. I do know about the cycle count and how a higher rate (about 27 I think it was) will start to show all sorts of "artifacts", but not live viruses that are capable of replicating. I don't know if that is true either. If anyone has a link to detailed info on the tests, please share it!
Back at the beginning of this debacle, an cdc or nih person rushed a paper out based on a theoretical sequencing provided by China. They allowed a whole 24 hours for peer review, then pushed forward. All decisions & the pcr test were based on that unreviewed paper.
22 independent researchers did a peer review & published their findings back around Feb of this year.
I have a copy of their report in my files. Soon as I figure out how to upload it to my phone, I will post it here.
In the meantime, here is what I remember:
1. They found numerous technical errors with how the pcr was performed & numerous mathematical errors*
2. As wrote above the pcr test was based on a theoretical sequencing provided by an enemy
3. When they re-did the math & took errors into account, iirc they found a 97% false positive rate at either 35 or 40 cycles (forget which) & I think a 92% false positive rate overall
*One mathematical issue I can think of we all witnessed. Apparently the industry standard is to look for sequences from 3 different genes. You may remember when the first tests were shipped to the state labs, one of the 3 tests kept failing QC due to a manufacturing problem. So Fauci decided it was fine to skip the 3rd test. That right there would change the the probabilities of accuracy/specificity dramatically, opening the door wide to other similar viruses testing positive.
My young adult son also had a sudden onset of C19. He was driving home from dinner with a friend and went from feeling well to sick within less than an hour. He followed the FLCCC protocol but elected not to take the ivermectin I'd sent to him. Within a couple days, he was feeling himself. I highly recommend your son and his gf take 325mg aspirin for a couple weeks at least.
Ibuprofen is good for pain and reducing fever. The FLCCC recommends aspirin because it prevents clotting. The spike protein (viral or vaxx) can damage the endothelial cells that line all blood and lymph vessels, which can cause micro-clotting.
My sister took asprin, no clotting. Worked well for her. She has diabetes 1 so she was on everything I gave her a list of things to take. Want to watch out for clotting and inflammation in the second stage. I gave her Pepcid AC and Loratadine alternating. She had Delta and it could have turned really nasty for her.
Glad your kids are okay. Looks like Omicron is SO different genetically from earlier forms that natural immunity isn't enough. As you found, most people have symptoms for a couple of days at most. This is typical. Vaxxed just seem to get it more easily but get NO better outcomes, from what I've seen, which is fine because outcomes are just sick for a couple of days. No biggie. Great news about you and your wife. Basic health is key.
Yes....I'd been wondering about the natural immunity part of thing. This kind of confirms that if it is Omicron, natural immunity either wanes by 24 months out or the older Covid doesn't cover it.
Natural immunity lasts for years if not lifetime. It is more likely omi-whatever has nothing to do with the alleged SARS-CoV-2. There is something which obviously is difficult to be immune against - common cold caused by a corona virus.
A preprint study by very reputable collaborations in South Africa showed that a previous delta infection or vaccination does not protect against omicron infection. But it shows that an omicron infection does confer protection against the riskier Delta strain. It's speculated the Omicron will displace Detal.
Yes. I believe this is the study that conclusion was based on, which states that antibodes from either a previous Delta infection or vax will NOT (edit: I left out the "not") protect against Omi but an omicrn infection offers protection against Delta.
Yes, but isn't the focus of the study not on the 13 subjects but on using them as "stock" to extract the virus from their blood samples, to seed Vero E6 cells used for experimenting to determine infectivity and cross-neutralizing between the various mutations of Covid? I myself relied on the summary provided by Dr. John Campbell which the text of the study seems to support to my untrained eyes. If you have a clearer understanding of the study I'd love to hear your interpretation of it.
That's interesting as the symptoms sound very much like what I experienced nearly four weeks ago, and I too had a sudden onset. There weren't much in the way of respiratory symptoms and it was mostly over within 48 hours.
And for me, it felt like a much milder version of something I caught in Feb 2020.
They do say that Omicron can break through the natural immunity of the covid-recovered, to a certain degree.
As a general reply to your reinfection musings, the Israel dashboard now shows that the "reinfection" rate is not much less than the new infection rate for the last 30 days. As with the case of your son's girlfriend this could be seasonal flu or other colds showing false positive as SC2.
Omicron replicates more easily in nasal airway cells - this could be driving the surge in PCR positives, including for the recovered, more than any actual "immune evasion" due to the change in the spike protein. I discuss the possibility at https://unglossed.substack.com/p/reinfections-in-israel if you are interested.
Interesting for sure. Also, I just watched the two interviews on American Thought Leaders with Dr. Peter McCullough, and he was very excited about the possibility of stopping Omicron in the first couple of days by using a diluted Povidone iodine in the nasal passages. He felt the virus enters the nose and starts to replicate there before moving elsewhere, and he was enthusiastic about the possibility of stopping the virus quickly that way. He cited findings from Bangladesh in particular that had a lot of success with this approach, which they also feel stops the actual spread as well.
I think that we are approaching a lengthy period where vaccine deaths will be hidden by any means possible. Maybe you could build a model and find some numbers for it. Not trying to be funny or disrespectful.
Absolutely. They are doing it already. Hence the British Heart Association's drive to show that kids have "always" had heart attacks, and soccer players have "always" dropped dead on the pitch.
I'm a big fan of your newsletter. If I understand your statistics, you are predicting a big surge in deaths because Omicron is more deadly than expected. It seems that your conclusions are disagreeing with many other statisticians publishing data to show that Omicron is rarely deadly. In fact some people claim Omicron has almost zero deaths. I guess, like you, I will wait for future statistics to indicate whether Omicron is more lethal than Delta.
As Nova123 said, I am not even predicting Omicron to be very deadly, but death rates could soon double due to hospital issues. Even if Omicron is 6 times less than deadly, but then death rates double (to three times less deadly than Delta), still my 600k-2m estimate would be reached.
I think that we lack reliable testing so it's very hard to determine cause of death. Because of fear, many people are overwhelming their hospitals (Vermont and NY) needing tests or "treatment" despite having few symptoms or no symptoms. I am guessing hospitals would send these people home as they did a year ago, telling them to wait until symptoms got disabling. It is hard for me to figure out whether rising hospitalization is due to seasonal flu/pneumonia/virus, Covid vaccine side effects, emergencies (heart disease, cancer, stroke) due to treatments postponed. Nevertheless, I am grateful to you for causing me to think more deeply about this issue.
Listen, I would love to hear an account of what these complications actually are. I believe that there are less pneumonias but more vascular events or brain problems?
Is there some way you can get your friend to talk, you can write a guest post on this blog if you want or whatever you like. I do want to know but cannot come up with anything solid.
Our readers would love to know also, I bet.
I am looking literally everywhere trying to find anything, search twitter for "omicron dvt" and "omicron clots" etc
The hospital system can handle seasonal flu (why? because it happens every year!!!), which NEVER fills up the ICU. Look - the predicted death rate is higher than when NY was tossing bodies in a mass graves in major cities all over the country.
PS Reliable tests are not needed to make a population level determination one does a statistical sample and corrects for the known error rate. This is not the same as a diagnosis for a patient which does require an accurate and rapid test.
Yes, even if deaths are naturally 0.4%, but double because of hospital unavailability to 0.8%, you get 1.2 million deaths.
If deaths are 0.2% (so 6 times less than Delta), but again double because of hospital problems, you get 600k deaths, which is my lower bound of my estimate.
I pray that my estimate is totally mistaken and as few people die as possible.
It is totally criminal. I realized it kind of late in the game and am not proud of when I figured it out. But I am damn glad that I bought Ivermectin when Omicron started.
Thanks for the breakdown of data for Omicron. I posted a protocol list as my first post on Substack if anyone needs it. You may find it helpful. I hope we are all healthy and well.
My wife & I bought it a while ago & used it in Nov. (see post above). But we still have enough -- we ordered a permitted refill with the first lot -- to treat us again in case Omicron comes calling.
But is testing accurate enough to determine exactly what people are dying of? Where's the seasonal flu in all this? Has it vanished or is it having an impact? It's all very confusing, and as we all know, we're stuck in a forest of lies and misinformation.
New York State has now reported which of the hospitalized are there because of Covid and which have tested positive while there for something else…. “New York has its first official breakdown of what share of people are hospitalized for COVID vs. how many are hospitalized with incidental COVID. In NYC it's 49% for COVID, everyone else just happened to test positive.”
I'm in upstate NY and while the infection numbers have shot up like in the city, the number of hospitalizations haven't budged much - just a bit over 100.
I am hoping to find out about this with respect to hospitalizations in Washington state. I believe many people if not everyone admitted to the hospital gets tested for Covid these days.
Everyone admitted gets tested. Elderly friend was hospitalized here in WA state in late November for bacterial pneumonia & tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 but had not Covid symptoms whatsoever. Doctors weren’t at all concerned about it.
She is immune compromised (Rituximab) due to a chronic autoimmune disease and it puts her at higher risk of developing bacterial pneumonia. This same friend ended up hospitalized for 2 months as a result of going into acute kidney failure within a couple days of her first dose of Pfizer vaccine. Doctors at University of Washington said the vaccine was the cause of it.
I also thought she was immune compromised, it is possible that Covid caused her bacterial pneumonia and she did not clear Covid. Do not assume it is unrelated.
Gunshots and car crashes are mostly unrelated. Bacterial pneumonia in immune compromised person who is covid positive is possibly NOT unrelated to the covid she is having.
Vax is a bioweapon as we now see the majority of hospitalisation and deaths worldwide are double vaxxed and boosted. Everything is going exactly as planned. Vax is destroying people's immune system insuring the perpetual pandemic, The entire plandemic was prescripted years in advance including the 'variants". They are Mocking people while slowly destroying them.
I am following the Danish experience of Omicron very closely and, have to say, that there is no evidence at present that the Omicron strain is anything other than a mild disease in the vast majority of people and quickly resolved even in those who do become sick.
Using the health authorities' Omicron reports, (https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/omikron) it is possible to calculate the key hospital admission rates, and death rates. Allowing for a 5 day lag for the admission rates and a 14 day lag for the death rates, (that is using the UK margins), there is a 0.5% rate for hospital admissions up to the 28th December, and a 0.04% death rate up to the 2nd January. That is to say, 1 in 200 having to go to hospital with Omicron and a risk of 1 in 2500 of dying. So between 6 to 10 times less dangerous than Delta.
The running aggregate for hospital admissions has also fallen for the last five days in a row, after record amount of people tested positive over the Xmas period, (around 15-17% positive rate in the tests, which for several days was the highest in the world).
It seems very likely that the minor uptick in hospital admissions up to the 3rd January was down to the residue of Delta infections working their way through the population. It is easily overlooked that there was a 2nd Delta wave from October to December in Denmark, which only peaked on 13th December at 7480 positive tests. Even up to New Year, there were still over a thousand Delta infections every day. So, of course, the much higher admission and death rates will still be influencing the overall figures for a while yet.
I suspect that this is what is happening in many other places, including the US, and the residue of Delta is being wrongly interpreted as deriving from Omicron. ^
Of course, we need to keep a very close eye on developments, especially as governments and health officials do everything to keep the fear alive by failing to distinguish between Delta and Omicron in the public presentation of the figures. After all, a disease of such moderation cannot be used to justify mass compulsory vaccination or any other public restrictions. An almighty struggle over these questions is imminent.
Over the next few weeks, we should see the trends in Denmark repeated elsewhere as Omicron displaces Delta more completely, with at first stable hospital rates, and then declining rates for both admissions and deaths.
You are assuming time scales for mid-pandemic, which are not appropriate in the exponential growth phase. Funny, but I can recall the Princess Diamond. ..
It took a month and a half before deaths really began. In any case, the world went through this early 2020 and health authorities lied for the sake of the economy (Once they knew the rich would not die) and they are doing it again (same reason) and somehow the united states of amnesia cannot recall 22 months ago!
Can you explain your point more fully, as I am not quite sure what it is, with respect.
I would say that there have been well over 200,000 Omicron infections in Denmark so far, so the trends are quite emphatic. I am living in an area where Omicron took off very early on in December, so know a lot of people myself, and through my family, who have become infected and experienced mild symptoms for a couple of days.
Because of the bias and misrepresentations of the health authorities, which also happens here, albeit to a lesser extent, I strongly believe that vigilance is needed, and an open mind that can accept fallibility. But, having said that, the figures are striking.
A point I should have added: the Delta wave of October-December appears to arise from the waning of the vaccine effect, (again see SSI reports on breakthrough infections for verification of this). Again this is a situation reproduced in many other places, such as Germany and Austria in the late autumn and early winter. It is easy to see how the benign signal from the Omicron wave could be confused with the more negative signal from the Delta wave. In general, the positive tests for the non-vaccinated have been a declining proportion of the positive tests in general, (down from 28% to 12% over the last month), and a declining proportion of the hospitalisations, (down from 38% to 26% over the same time period). These figures are suggestive of declining immunity in the vaccinated groups in society.
In the interests of objectivity, should also point out that Denmark did today suffer its largest loss of people since the peak of last winter, with 28 people dying. At present, there is no distinction available for either vaccination status or which variant was present, although I strongly suspect that this higher figure derives from the high number of Delta infections 2-3 weeks ago. I will update here if and when that is clarified.
For a single patient, it is not two weeks from hospitalization to death - most patients who eventually succumb circle the drain in the ICU for many weeks. Late in a wave you have people of all levels of progression of showing up at the hospital and ICU, and so deaths show up sooner.
Mar 14 - CVid had been in the US a month (there was no functioning tests due to CDC screwup), yet deaths were 58 in the US and this is for a country with 330 million, not the Danish 6 million
And given what has been learned about treatments with steroids, not on ventilators, etc., the delay of death will be longer.
Denmark first peak was 20 deaths per day on April 4. Mar 4 only 14 people infected.
Or look at what deaths in Denmark are doing now in Denmark - not as bas as Delta, worse than alpha, same trend.
Further confounding statistics, all cause mortality for working age (18-65) rose 40% in the last 2 quarters of '21, per CEO of OneAmerica Life Insurance. Not due to covid, per the CEO.
Also per the CEO, a10% rise would be 1 in 200 year event. No # for 4X that, all at once.
Some portion could be delayed care for chronically ill, but the rise correlates suspiciously with vax push last summer, in which case I expected the jump to continue, if not get worse as sheeple booster their immune systems into oblivion.
Yes, your point is very salient. The vax does seem to kill a lot of people in ways that seem "unrelated" to a lot of people, even us.
For example, my wife's friend's ex-husband died suddenly from cardiac arrest while visiting his friend and drinking tea, three months after getting vaxxed. It seems unrelated, and perhaps it is unrelated, or perhaps it is related.
I wrote an article about that story, I actually fact checked it.
Yes, any time I hear of an 'odd' death -- even a few that are more 'regular'--the question pops into my mind (at times also out of my mouth). "Was he/she jabbed?" I know of many cases of double & triple jabbed who have contracted the disease these last few weeks, some young, some old, some with more serious cases than others. Also, I know of one lady who has no feeling in her face and another who has lost feeling in the entire left side of her body! All of these random cases clearly have something to add to the vax narrative. Then there are the two or three who developed heart problems after being jabbed but at a sufficient interval of time to be due to other factors. And to think that my circle of friends is rather reduced, especially these last 2 years!
I know of 7 vaxxed people. 2 died within 1 week of the shots. 1 developed inoperable brain cancer. 1 has gone into weird mental state. 1 retired shortly after vax, but seems too young to be retired. Only 2 were normal.
Scary and disturbing, I know one person who died outright after vax, have some suspicions about health of another person that I do not want to discuss, plus the above case.
I also know one person who died a few days after his 2nd jab. Healthy, 39 year old man, dropped dead of a heart attack while at work. Autopsy showed heart inflammation, but family refused to see the correlation, and it wasn’t reported.
Also, just got a call a few days ago from a good friend. Both he and his daughter just found out they have cancer. Both double vaxxed and boosted. Said they were stunned at their diagnoses. Both previously healthy. Refuse to even contemplate a correlation.
Could you get them to talk and find what cancer and what type? I am collecting this info. Try to get them to talk by being thoughtful and accepting and sympathetic.
My friend, a male aged 75 (but extremely fit and in good health) has bladder cancer and possibly also in liver. Was supposed to undergo more testing a few days ago. His daughter, age 50, has colon cancer. Just found recently through routine colonoscopy. She is especially very health-conscious, fit and trim.
It's also highly significant that people dying shortly after the jab are not being autopsied (as far as I know). This goes against standard medical practice of the last 50 years or so.
It is very difficult to decipher vax effect vs Covid effect, because some persons had both Covid and vaccinations, or had Covid without being diagnosed. Covid may indeed increase post-Covid mortality, I am actually reading about it now:
He wrote a lot and I read about a third of what he referenced. He did an amazing job compiling a lot of info, but it is not yet certain how conclusive all of this is, but it is definitely something to think about.
The one article he referenced, showing higher cardiovascular risk to the Covid-recovered,
actually showed LOWED all cause mortality among covid recovered. It shows how hard it is to compare apples with apples especially with Covid-Free vax-free, Covid-recovered vax-free, Covid-free vaxed, Covid-recovered unvaxed, age confounding etc.
==========
Secondary outcome: all-cause mortality analyses
During median 190 days at risk, there were 32 all-cause deaths: 10 deaths in the COVID-19(+) cohort and 22 in the COVID-19(-) cohort. Among COVID-19(+) cohort participants, the incidence rate of the all-cause death was 41.6 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up, in comparison to 45.1 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up among COVID-19(-) cohort participants. There was no statistically significant incidence rate difference (−3.4; 95% CI from - 35.4 to 28.5 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up; p=0.855) in the all-cause death between two cohorts.
In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, there were no differences in all-cause mortality between COVID-19(-) and COVID-19(+) cohorts (Figure 4). In unadjusted Cox regression analysis, COVID-19(+) exposure was associated with non-significant risk (Table 3). Notably, the proportional-hazards assumption was violated for all Cox regression models with the all-cause death outcome.
I think he was saying the 40% rise wasn't due to covid. That covid deaths were flat or maybe rose a small percent. But nothing like the 4 in 800 years happening all at once.
The cardiac deaths I'm reading & hearing about happen within a couple weeks of jab.
But the damage from jabs is cumulative, so I expect all cause mortality, including cardiac, to continue to rise.
Covid can also cause cumulative damage if your body is unable to completely clear the virus or the spikes. Studies of long covid patients found spikes in vesicles in their monocytes as long as 15 months after "recovery" from covid.
Otoh, the jabs damage the immune system, possibly permanently, making you more susceptible to all kinds of diseases, including. covid.
Denmark, very highly vaxxed, and got an early start on Omicron, does seem to be supporting the idea that Omicron is reasonably mild, but extremely transmissable. Hospitaliation and ICU cases are currently at levels approaching the peak in Jan 2021. Of course number of cases is much higher, so the % of severe illness is lower. 7-day average deaths is around half what it was at the peak last January. But then daily cases peaked at around 3700 per day, currently it's at 26000 cases per day. So cases are x 7 but deaths are x 0.5. It seems as if Omicron may bring about a similar number of deaths and severe illness as Delta, via much higher case rate, but also much lower severity of illness.
Clearly the impact on hospital treatment could be huge unless they allow positive tested doctors and nurses to work. Otherwise hopsitals would suffer such large staff shortages that deaths and severe illness would be even higher. Overall, the impact of Omicron is going to be very significant indeed if Denmark is anything to go by. In Portugal though, with similarly high vax rates, although cases are spiking, deaths are far lower than the Delta peak. So it seems to behave differently in different countries. I suspect though that Portugal was drastically overstating its "covid" deaths in Jan 2021, and maybe under reporting them now. In these highly vaxxed countries, its better for them to downplay illness and deaths, otherwise they face the embarrassment of admitting that vaccines are useless
Yes, exactly, plus two days ago there was a big news from S.A. that they "found" 476 more deaths attributed to previous weeks. SA deaths are still rising, despite cases peaking around Dec 18.
The 476 deaths that were announced, I believe were not added to previous deaths in worldometer, they were just "announced" but did not end up in official statistics.
It is possible that S.A. upset about the travel ban shaped their statistics and messaging in some way. The travel ban was definitely stupid, but so was the reaction to it, if true.
I think you have an epistemological problem. To wit: until now the modus operandi was to exaggerate the danger of covid. Hospitals paid extra for covid patients, fiddling statistics to scare the peasants into vaccinating a.s.o. For whatever purpose... So if this m.o. is still in place then the numbers you are citing just reflects the scaremongering of the powers that be. That is hospitalisations of people with broken limbs that just happen to also have omikron. I think that is very likely. Of course - as Omikron ist undoubtedly very infectious - the number of "hospitalisations" will just go through the roof. - On the other hand - if Omicron is as bad or worse than Delta and as undoubtedly the vaccinated get infected more - then the powers that be have every reason to downplay the numbers. I don´t know which is true and I believe we will find out only - and if at all - in a few month. By the way: I am German but lived in Russia in the Nineties. I fell in love with Russia but learned Russian on the street. So I used a lot of MAT and must admit it is my favorite language. Unfortunately you cannot use it in polite society. So I took to saying yolkipalki. Later I lived in Poland and as Poles understand Russian mat I kept using yolkipalki. So that is the nickname I acquired in Poland and I have been using it ever since.
I started typing a long comment and it disappeared. Anyway, Dr Fauci and Lauterbach want us to believe that "Omicron is mild", because Omicron is representing a total failure of vaccinating as a policy, and it being "mild" kinds of makes this failure to be less important.
In reality Omicron does not care about my opinion, Dr Fauci opinion, or anyone else's opinion, it will simply infect and kill as many people as it is good for.
Saying that "Omicron is mild" because of opposition to lockdowns, is like generals fighting the last war, or fighting windmills. Lockdowns are not even attempted where I am, except that the libtard neighboring county decided to deny gyms and restaurants to the vaccine-free. That will, no doubt, totally stop Omicron in that dumpster of a county, haha.
They are suddenly distinguishing people which test positive but are hospitalised for other reasons from people who are hospitalised because of Corona. For NYC that means the numbers are about half of what they were before. Evidently they are running scared.
Deaths are still in the plateau of the pre-Omicron trend, in the US, for the moment there is virtually zero Omicron excess deaths. I think your model violates that significantly by now.
My model predicts 1,404 Omicron deaths for yesterday, Dec 7. We had 2,025 deaths from all Covid, including Omicron and Delta. How many deaths yesterday were from Delta, is anyone's guess. Before Omicron started, deaths were at around 1,000 per day.
Hitting 600k deaths before end of March, is possible even if Omicron is 3x less deadly than Delta, as long as the expected number of peopl egets infected.
My predictions really are not biased for very high mortality. They mostly expect a large number of infections, and a very mediocre mortality, and issues with hospitals around the end of January.
But you're assuming these headline stats are remotely accurate and they're simply not b/c of the false positive catastrophe that I've been highlighting, which is the "original sin" that affects all parts of the pandemic surveillance chain data. This is really where you should be focusing your efforts.
You are not wrong at all, but I want to work with the numbers I have. I cannot make every US resident take a perfect test every day, reported to me within a minute.
I suggest you look around the world at when covid cases surged, and excess deaths. You will find a very strong correlation. It is not a conspiracy - there has been a very real and deadly pandemic happening.
It correlates b/c it's all part of the surveillance data chain that starts with the "original sin" of defining a "case" as only a positive test result and then the vast majority of those test positives being false positives. "Covid hospitalization" and "Covid deaths" are also defined generally as relying only on a positive test result. We summarize the entire data chain in this piece: https://tamhunt.medium.com/how-covid-19-stats-are-grossly-exaggerated-a-brief-summary-of-the-arguments-53a5b4237c4c
You are following the agenda you have been assigned. Your task is to deflect from the damage caused by mass vaxxing, and you have paymasters. The only thing I cannot determine precisely is which lack-of-intelligence outfit you hail from.
If you're referring to me, yes my agenda is indeed to demonstrate that a very significant part of the perceived pandemic is based on a tsunami of false positives. Consult the references I provide for the details.
We've all criticized the way Covid deaths are counted ("from" v "with") and know that the way cases are even identified is riddled with fraud. So how do we know the new cases and deaths are definitely Omicron and due to Omicron? Aren't we applying double standards here?
You're completely ignoring false positives and the certainty that the vast majority of "Omicron cases" and "Covid cases" more generally are false positives. And you're still ignoring the directly related phenomenon of false "Covid hospitalizations" due to either false positives or only incidental positives. It is now widely acknowledged, even by Mr. Fauci himself, that large numbers of "Covid hospitalizations" are "with" not "from" Covid. And yet it is not yet widely acknowledged that the large majority of these data points are false positives.
In sum, until you get your head around the false positive catastrophe you're going to continue to be fundamentally misunderstanding what's going on here.
You are on target about false positives, especially when prevalence is low like in your BMJ article. But right now the prevalence is not low. It is high.
Even if we assume a sky high 2% active infection rate for Covid and a very generous 95% test specificity, we STILL get 80% or more false positives from screening programs.
This is a very common mistake. Prevalence has been very low throughout the pandemic and is STILL very low, probably no more than 1% active infection, which still results in the vast majority of test positives being false positives. Have you done the math? Please just play with the calculator a little. You of all people should understand this since you have a strong background in mathematics: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1411/rapid-responses
What class has a 20% positivity rate with antigen tests? Antigen tests have an even higher false positive rate in some situations than PCR tests. Hawaii island where I live used to require an antigen test on arrival. Turns out that fully 93% of those positive test results (a small fraction of all those where tested) were in fact false positives when re-tested with a PCR test. And that pattern has persisted in many contexts.
It's more likely that the tsunami of omicron positive test results is in fact a tsunami of false positives for all of the reasons I've no mentioned many times to you.
If you agree that false positives are a problem, and you understand what this means, you wouldn't be saying what you're staying. The vast majority of test results being false positives is the original sin of the pandemic surveillance chain and undermines all Covid stats b/c they're all based on those dang tests -- and the "case definition" that defines almost for the first time in history a "case" as requiing only a positive test result rather than symptoms plus a positive test.
Exactly! Two years in, we still have no clear idea of how prevalent Covid really is, let alone how many died from it. We are basing all our theories on shifting sands.
As you note, its a simple model. The hospitalizations and deaths and cases will scare the heck out of a lot of people and the R rate will slow - lengthening the peak and also increasing the death rate by lengthening the time with a non-functional health care system.
Meanwhile, and contributing to overwhelming the health care system is the (very rapidly growing) vaccine illnesses. And without a functioning health care system even if you rate is too high, deaths will be magnified.
And also magnifying is that most of the PPE and treatment drugs (like IVM and HCQ - monoclonal us useless for Omicron) are sitting off Los Angeles not getting unloaded. Hospitals are already short. The magnified effect is a real unknown, too.
but I think I recall it did not increase mortality at high hospitalization rates, i.e., adding a conservative -;) bias (note, not politically conservative) . . .
Pieter Streicher of South Africa has been spot on for a long time about such things. If his estimate for London is correct, and we have comparable mortality here, it would be more like 13,000 deaths. A lot less than influenza. Which would mean Omicron is a safer (and more effective) "vaccine" than Pfizer's etc. https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1479874751594209288
I had a lot of polite and friendly Twitter discussions with Peter. I like him a lot. But his estimates are mistaken. The deaths in South Africa are still going up, even though cases crested around Dec 18. That's basically 4 weeks from Dec 18.
Ok, I'll throw in some personal experience here. Puzzling, to say the least. My son and his girlfriend were both here last Sunday thru Wednesday. Both of them fairly certainly had the original Covid in November-December 2019...they were at UC Davis then, a school that has a huge percentage of students from China and most especially, from Wuhan area. At the time, the doctors were totally puzzled about what they, and so many others in the area, were suffering from. They said "Something weird is going around and we don't know what it is." They were both fairly sick, but were fine after a couple of weeks. Therefore, I feel they had Covid and therefore would have natural immunity. They have both been fine since that time (almost 2 years), and are both unvaccinated. So back to 3 days ago, Wed. night of this week. They both became sick quite suddenly, by 6 a.m. Thursday, they went to the local hospital (this is CA) and she got a test that was positive for Covid, however they determined that. The same hospital wouldn't accept my son's insurance and they couldn't find a local test either, so he went untested. Did the hospital or anyone else give a damn about his status, whether he should be "counted" anywhere, whether he would spread it etc.? Nope, not an issue. So they went home, both were sick Thursday & Friday. He was a bit worse off than she was....headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, dizziness, no appetite. They basically just stayed in bed, drank tons of water, took a lot of vitamins such as D3, C, zinc. This morning he texted that he feels so much better now, he was able to sleep last night, so overall it was mostly a 48 hour thing at the worst. My son said this was similar to what they had in Nov. 2019 but milder. Finally, as I said, they were here with us (parents) and we are 72 and 75 (unvaxxed). We've been popping all the vitamin protocols for months, we exercise a lot and are in great health and are slim, and thus far we don't seem to have caught whatever they had even though they were here in the house up through Wednesday. Hard to know if it was Delta or Omicron. Or perhaps just a flu that they are pretending is Covid. So far so good, anyhow.
I agree that it is a puzzling experience, and I am glad your son and his gf are okay.
Those symptoms are typical of flu, which has retuned this winter. Oh, and flu typically hits its worst at day 3 and clears at day 5.
None of the covid tests is terribly reliable. False positives in antigen tests due to cross antibodies from prior coronavirus colds; false positives in pcr due to over sensitivity & based on theoretical sequencing from CCP.
That's what I'm struggling with here. Everyone on our side knows the PCR is useless, and the CDC has virtually admitted this. Yet many are also saying they have Covid or Omicron. And we seem to have forgotten that it's winter and a time when people get colds and seasonal flu. Am I missing something or have we become a nation of hypochondriacs?
Based on my experience as a lab tech, we have become a nation of hypochondriacs.
It sure seems like all colds and flu have "transitioned" into being labeled as Covid. As for my son and his girlfriend, they had something that in my opinion sure resembled a type of flu, but due to the gf getting tested and the result was called Covid, who can tell at this point. Everything is tainted.
From so much I have read, it sure seems like those tests are next to worthless. Especially if they can't really distinguish one virus from another. So perhaps they had the flu, but of course the test couldn't really verify that.
Yup. And I'd add that 30 cycles is still a good 5 too many. They're still conflating exposures with infections. Tou could pick it up standing in the test line, catch it in your boogers, swab your boogers up and WOOT! POSITIVE!!!
Given the symptoms, which match typical coronavirus head cold and typical flu, they are worthless. If they ran 30 pcr cycles for whichever variant of flu is showing up, it would probably be positive too.
I believe rapid tests are less prone to false positives. I was sick 2 days ago and yesterday due to being too much outside in cold weather, thought it could be covid, rapid was negative.
I agree. My wife & I had Covid in Nov. She got it at a gathering of mostly fully-jabbed (some admitted later that they had had 'minor symptoms' at that gettogether) and then gave it to me. She got two negatives & I got one on the rapid home tests, even after we both had symptoms like cough and fatigue. But two days after each of us got a negative, our daughter convinced us to test again because we're old and the symptoms persisted. That time it was BINGO for both of us, confirmed later by a PCR at a local hospital. We began the FLCCC protocol with Ivermectin the day we rapid tested positive and both had a VERY MILD case, no fever, headache, loss of taste, or low oximeter readings. As I said, we're old and I credit our nothingburger cases to long use of supplements (zinc, Vit D3, C, quercetin, etc.) and the FLCCC/Ivermectin connection. My question is: What in hell is wrong with our healthcare system? Why does it actively suppress life-saving therapies?
Would you recommend to add quercetin to a list of regular preventative vitamins? I already had covid a year ago. thanks
They want to keep us sick...big industry. $$.
What is the "specificity" of the rapid test you took? (It should be in the package insert, along with sensitivity)
I think that we threw the package away, it was quick-vue.
We used the same test on my wife, the red line was FAT and SOLID red just minutes after inserting the stick
I had the impression the rapid tests are fairly worthless, although this is an area of confusion for me at this point. I'm left with the feeling that none of the tests are all that reliable.
Their negatives are not very reliable, especially if you acquired the disease recently. The positive is usually on the mark, though. That's why most kits have two tests. If the first is negative, wait 36 hours and try the second.
I had to be tested a year AGO LAST March in order to see my Doctor,,had bad tummy troubles,,,turns out silly me,taking Too Much Magnesium.. I asked the Health Link nurse,,on the phone,and the nurse Covid testing me,,,what percentage of tests came back False Positive. One on phone said, oh,,only about 10-15%... testing nurse stated 10-18 or 20%. I asked,,,what if I fall into that category?
I would like to see a lengthy discussion by a knowledgeable person about the exact nature of these tests...the PCR tests in particular. For example, I've read that the test can't actually distinguish Omicron from Delta from flu etc, but I don't know if this is accurate. I do know about the cycle count and how a higher rate (about 27 I think it was) will start to show all sorts of "artifacts", but not live viruses that are capable of replicating. I don't know if that is true either. If anyone has a link to detailed info on the tests, please share it!
Hah! Found a link to it:
https://cormandrostenreview.com/
Back at the beginning of this debacle, an cdc or nih person rushed a paper out based on a theoretical sequencing provided by China. They allowed a whole 24 hours for peer review, then pushed forward. All decisions & the pcr test were based on that unreviewed paper.
22 independent researchers did a peer review & published their findings back around Feb of this year.
I have a copy of their report in my files. Soon as I figure out how to upload it to my phone, I will post it here.
In the meantime, here is what I remember:
1. They found numerous technical errors with how the pcr was performed & numerous mathematical errors*
2. As wrote above the pcr test was based on a theoretical sequencing provided by an enemy
3. When they re-did the math & took errors into account, iirc they found a 97% false positive rate at either 35 or 40 cycles (forget which) & I think a 92% false positive rate overall
*One mathematical issue I can think of we all witnessed. Apparently the industry standard is to look for sequences from 3 different genes. You may remember when the first tests were shipped to the state labs, one of the 3 tests kept failing QC due to a manufacturing problem. So Fauci decided it was fine to skip the 3rd test. That right there would change the the probabilities of accuracy/specificity dramatically, opening the door wide to other similar viruses testing positive.
My young adult son also had a sudden onset of C19. He was driving home from dinner with a friend and went from feeling well to sick within less than an hour. He followed the FLCCC protocol but elected not to take the ivermectin I'd sent to him. Within a couple days, he was feeling himself. I highly recommend your son and his gf take 325mg aspirin for a couple weeks at least.
I think they are taking Ibuprofen.
Ibuprofen is good for pain and reducing fever. The FLCCC recommends aspirin because it prevents clotting. The spike protein (viral or vaxx) can damage the endothelial cells that line all blood and lymph vessels, which can cause micro-clotting.
https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Alliance-I-MASKplus-Protocol-ENGLISH.pdf
My sister took asprin, no clotting. Worked well for her. She has diabetes 1 so she was on everything I gave her a list of things to take. Want to watch out for clotting and inflammation in the second stage. I gave her Pepcid AC and Loratadine alternating. She had Delta and it could have turned really nasty for her.
Glad your kids are okay. Looks like Omicron is SO different genetically from earlier forms that natural immunity isn't enough. As you found, most people have symptoms for a couple of days at most. This is typical. Vaxxed just seem to get it more easily but get NO better outcomes, from what I've seen, which is fine because outcomes are just sick for a couple of days. No biggie. Great news about you and your wife. Basic health is key.
Yes....I'd been wondering about the natural immunity part of thing. This kind of confirms that if it is Omicron, natural immunity either wanes by 24 months out or the older Covid doesn't cover it.
Natural immunity lasts for years if not lifetime. It is more likely omi-whatever has nothing to do with the alleged SARS-CoV-2. There is something which obviously is difficult to be immune against - common cold caused by a corona virus.
I have natural immunity from previous November, had a covid case in my family just 2 weeks ago, did not get infected. I am vax-free and damn glad.
A preprint study by very reputable collaborations in South Africa showed that a previous delta infection or vaccination does not protect against omicron infection. But it shows that an omicron infection does confer protection against the riskier Delta strain. It's speculated the Omicron will displace Detal.
https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal_corr.pdf
Sounds logical to me at this point.
My understanding from epidemiologist substacks is the natural immunity to earlier strains is less effective with omicron.
Natural omicron immunity, otoh, appears to be effective against earlier strains. Personally I consider it the strain to catch...
Yes. I believe this is the study that conclusion was based on, which states that antibodes from either a previous Delta infection or vax will NOT (edit: I left out the "not") protect against Omi but an omicrn infection offers protection against Delta.
https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-268439v1-Sigal_corr.pdf
Yes, but isn't the focus of the study not on the 13 subjects but on using them as "stock" to extract the virus from their blood samples, to seed Vero E6 cells used for experimenting to determine infectivity and cross-neutralizing between the various mutations of Covid? I myself relied on the summary provided by Dr. John Campbell which the text of the study seems to support to my untrained eyes. If you have a clearer understanding of the study I'd love to hear your interpretation of it.
That's interesting as the symptoms sound very much like what I experienced nearly four weeks ago, and I too had a sudden onset. There weren't much in the way of respiratory symptoms and it was mostly over within 48 hours.
And for me, it felt like a much milder version of something I caught in Feb 2020.
They do say that Omicron can break through the natural immunity of the covid-recovered, to a certain degree.
As a general reply to your reinfection musings, the Israel dashboard now shows that the "reinfection" rate is not much less than the new infection rate for the last 30 days. As with the case of your son's girlfriend this could be seasonal flu or other colds showing false positive as SC2.
Omicron replicates more easily in nasal airway cells - this could be driving the surge in PCR positives, including for the recovered, more than any actual "immune evasion" due to the change in the spike protein. I discuss the possibility at https://unglossed.substack.com/p/reinfections-in-israel if you are interested.
Interesting for sure. Also, I just watched the two interviews on American Thought Leaders with Dr. Peter McCullough, and he was very excited about the possibility of stopping Omicron in the first couple of days by using a diluted Povidone iodine in the nasal passages. He felt the virus enters the nose and starts to replicate there before moving elsewhere, and he was enthusiastic about the possibility of stopping the virus quickly that way. He cited findings from Bangladesh in particular that had a lot of success with this approach, which they also feel stops the actual spread as well.
I think that we are approaching a lengthy period where vaccine deaths will be hidden by any means possible. Maybe you could build a model and find some numbers for it. Not trying to be funny or disrespectful.
You are right. They will try to hide it. The best would be to look for excess mortality in the total mortality reports. My opinion
Absolutely. They are doing it already. Hence the British Heart Association's drive to show that kids have "always" had heart attacks, and soccer players have "always" dropped dead on the pitch.
I'm a big fan of your newsletter. If I understand your statistics, you are predicting a big surge in deaths because Omicron is more deadly than expected. It seems that your conclusions are disagreeing with many other statisticians publishing data to show that Omicron is rarely deadly. In fact some people claim Omicron has almost zero deaths. I guess, like you, I will wait for future statistics to indicate whether Omicron is more lethal than Delta.
As Nova123 said, I am not even predicting Omicron to be very deadly, but death rates could soon double due to hospital issues. Even if Omicron is 6 times less than deadly, but then death rates double (to three times less deadly than Delta), still my 600k-2m estimate would be reached.
I think that we lack reliable testing so it's very hard to determine cause of death. Because of fear, many people are overwhelming their hospitals (Vermont and NY) needing tests or "treatment" despite having few symptoms or no symptoms. I am guessing hospitals would send these people home as they did a year ago, telling them to wait until symptoms got disabling. It is hard for me to figure out whether rising hospitalization is due to seasonal flu/pneumonia/virus, Covid vaccine side effects, emergencies (heart disease, cancer, stroke) due to treatments postponed. Nevertheless, I am grateful to you for causing me to think more deeply about this issue.
I have a friend who is a nurse, and at least in her hospital, they are definitely seeing a surge of people with covid/covid complications.
Listen, I would love to hear an account of what these complications actually are. I believe that there are less pneumonias but more vascular events or brain problems?
Is there some way you can get your friend to talk, you can write a guest post on this blog if you want or whatever you like. I do want to know but cannot come up with anything solid.
Our readers would love to know also, I bet.
I am looking literally everywhere trying to find anything, search twitter for "omicron dvt" and "omicron clots" etc
The hospital system can handle seasonal flu (why? because it happens every year!!!), which NEVER fills up the ICU. Look - the predicted death rate is higher than when NY was tossing bodies in a mass graves in major cities all over the country.
PS Reliable tests are not needed to make a population level determination one does a statistical sample and corrects for the known error rate. This is not the same as a diagnosis for a patient which does require an accurate and rapid test.
My understanding that Igor is predicting a large number of deaths because of very high omicron transmission rates, not because of high death rates.
Yes, even if deaths are naturally 0.4%, but double because of hospital unavailability to 0.8%, you get 1.2 million deaths.
If deaths are 0.2% (so 6 times less than Delta), but again double because of hospital problems, you get 600k deaths, which is my lower bound of my estimate.
I pray that my estimate is totally mistaken and as few people die as possible.
Yes, and much/most of the damage could be eliminated with aggressive early treatment. Which we won't do.
It is totally criminal. I realized it kind of late in the game and am not proud of when I figured it out. But I am damn glad that I bought Ivermectin when Omicron started.
Thanks for the breakdown of data for Omicron. I posted a protocol list as my first post on Substack if anyone needs it. You may find it helpful. I hope we are all healthy and well.
I love your post! Linking to it here for our readers:
https://melamorph.substack.com/p/early-treatment-protocol-for-a-healthy
I would add to your helpful list good sleep!
wise.
My wife & I bought it a while ago & used it in Nov. (see post above). But we still have enough -- we ordered a permitted refill with the first lot -- to treat us again in case Omicron comes calling.
Deaths are clearly rising now from the Omicron surge in many countries. Examples: Canada, Australia, South Africa (still rising), UK and now the U.S.
Yes and Delta deaths are falling, so Omicron deaths are even more rising. We do not know by how much.
Is it death from Omicron or is it the previously jabbed who just can’t fight off even a more mild infection??? I would call that a “vaccine” death.
This is a good way to look at it, but it is hard to properly analyze with all the confounders like age.
Won’t all jabbed people be immuno-compromised in some way regardless of age?
That's my expectation
But is testing accurate enough to determine exactly what people are dying of? Where's the seasonal flu in all this? Has it vanished or is it having an impact? It's all very confusing, and as we all know, we're stuck in a forest of lies and misinformation.
Follow the money....anyone stepping foot in a hospital has Omicron
New York State has now reported which of the hospitalized are there because of Covid and which have tested positive while there for something else…. “New York has its first official breakdown of what share of people are hospitalized for COVID vs. how many are hospitalized with incidental COVID. In NYC it's 49% for COVID, everyone else just happened to test positive.”
Only 49% are hospitalized because of Covid.
I'm in upstate NY and while the infection numbers have shot up like in the city, the number of hospitalizations haven't budged much - just a bit over 100.
I am hoping to find out about this with respect to hospitalizations in Washington state. I believe many people if not everyone admitted to the hospital gets tested for Covid these days.
Everyone admitted gets tested. Elderly friend was hospitalized here in WA state in late November for bacterial pneumonia & tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 but had not Covid symptoms whatsoever. Doctors weren’t at all concerned about it.
great example, but what caused the pneumonia?
She is immune compromised (Rituximab) due to a chronic autoimmune disease and it puts her at higher risk of developing bacterial pneumonia. This same friend ended up hospitalized for 2 months as a result of going into acute kidney failure within a couple days of her first dose of Pfizer vaccine. Doctors at University of Washington said the vaccine was the cause of it.
I also thought she was immune compromised, it is possible that Covid caused her bacterial pneumonia and she did not clear Covid. Do not assume it is unrelated.
Gunshots and car crashes are mostly unrelated. Bacterial pneumonia in immune compromised person who is covid positive is possibly NOT unrelated to the covid she is having.
She had stopped taking her PCP medication (Bactrim) a few weeks before she developed the pneumonia.
It also could have been a false positive. The doctor I spoke to (I am in charge if her medical stuff) seemed to hint that he thought it may have been.
But yes your point is also a good one.
Vax is a bioweapon as we now see the majority of hospitalisation and deaths worldwide are double vaxxed and boosted. Everything is going exactly as planned. Vax is destroying people's immune system insuring the perpetual pandemic, The entire plandemic was prescripted years in advance including the 'variants". They are Mocking people while slowly destroying them.
"France Detects New COVID-19 Scariant. More of The Satanic Mockery. Properties of The Numbers 12 and 46 - https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/france-detects-new-covid-19-scariant
Omicron: The Corona End Game The Truth Behind The Symbols https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/the-corona-end-game
I am following the Danish experience of Omicron very closely and, have to say, that there is no evidence at present that the Omicron strain is anything other than a mild disease in the vast majority of people and quickly resolved even in those who do become sick.
Using the health authorities' Omicron reports, (https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/omikron) it is possible to calculate the key hospital admission rates, and death rates. Allowing for a 5 day lag for the admission rates and a 14 day lag for the death rates, (that is using the UK margins), there is a 0.5% rate for hospital admissions up to the 28th December, and a 0.04% death rate up to the 2nd January. That is to say, 1 in 200 having to go to hospital with Omicron and a risk of 1 in 2500 of dying. So between 6 to 10 times less dangerous than Delta.
The running aggregate for hospital admissions has also fallen for the last five days in a row, after record amount of people tested positive over the Xmas period, (around 15-17% positive rate in the tests, which for several days was the highest in the world).
It seems very likely that the minor uptick in hospital admissions up to the 3rd January was down to the residue of Delta infections working their way through the population. It is easily overlooked that there was a 2nd Delta wave from October to December in Denmark, which only peaked on 13th December at 7480 positive tests. Even up to New Year, there were still over a thousand Delta infections every day. So, of course, the much higher admission and death rates will still be influencing the overall figures for a while yet.
I suspect that this is what is happening in many other places, including the US, and the residue of Delta is being wrongly interpreted as deriving from Omicron. ^
Of course, we need to keep a very close eye on developments, especially as governments and health officials do everything to keep the fear alive by failing to distinguish between Delta and Omicron in the public presentation of the figures. After all, a disease of such moderation cannot be used to justify mass compulsory vaccination or any other public restrictions. An almighty struggle over these questions is imminent.
Over the next few weeks, we should see the trends in Denmark repeated elsewhere as Omicron displaces Delta more completely, with at first stable hospital rates, and then declining rates for both admissions and deaths.
You are assuming time scales for mid-pandemic, which are not appropriate in the exponential growth phase. Funny, but I can recall the Princess Diamond. ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
It took a month and a half before deaths really began. In any case, the world went through this early 2020 and health authorities lied for the sake of the economy (Once they knew the rich would not die) and they are doing it again (same reason) and somehow the united states of amnesia cannot recall 22 months ago!
Can you explain your point more fully, as I am not quite sure what it is, with respect.
I would say that there have been well over 200,000 Omicron infections in Denmark so far, so the trends are quite emphatic. I am living in an area where Omicron took off very early on in December, so know a lot of people myself, and through my family, who have become infected and experienced mild symptoms for a couple of days.
Because of the bias and misrepresentations of the health authorities, which also happens here, albeit to a lesser extent, I strongly believe that vigilance is needed, and an open mind that can accept fallibility. But, having said that, the figures are striking.
A point I should have added: the Delta wave of October-December appears to arise from the waning of the vaccine effect, (again see SSI reports on breakthrough infections for verification of this). Again this is a situation reproduced in many other places, such as Germany and Austria in the late autumn and early winter. It is easy to see how the benign signal from the Omicron wave could be confused with the more negative signal from the Delta wave. In general, the positive tests for the non-vaccinated have been a declining proportion of the positive tests in general, (down from 28% to 12% over the last month), and a declining proportion of the hospitalisations, (down from 38% to 26% over the same time period). These figures are suggestive of declining immunity in the vaccinated groups in society.
In the interests of objectivity, should also point out that Denmark did today suffer its largest loss of people since the peak of last winter, with 28 people dying. At present, there is no distinction available for either vaccination status or which variant was present, although I strongly suspect that this higher figure derives from the high number of Delta infections 2-3 weeks ago. I will update here if and when that is clarified.
Let's keep us all updated and I seriously hope that no more people will die in Denmark.
For a single patient, it is not two weeks from hospitalization to death - most patients who eventually succumb circle the drain in the ICU for many weeks. Late in a wave you have people of all levels of progression of showing up at the hospital and ICU, and so deaths show up sooner.
Mar 14 - CVid had been in the US a month (there was no functioning tests due to CDC screwup), yet deaths were 58 in the US and this is for a country with 330 million, not the Danish 6 million
And given what has been learned about treatments with steroids, not on ventilators, etc., the delay of death will be longer.
Denmark first peak was 20 deaths per day on April 4. Mar 4 only 14 people infected.
Or look at what deaths in Denmark are doing now in Denmark - not as bas as Delta, worse than alpha, same trend.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/
Igor.
You are a good man, however from the data I have looked at, SA and Europe, Moronic is a mild pussycat.
It should play out in a week or so.
Best.
Bill
Great! Let's get back to it next Sunday and see!
South Africa deaths are still rising and they found 476 "forgotten" deaths, which were never added to worldometer.
Further confounding statistics, all cause mortality for working age (18-65) rose 40% in the last 2 quarters of '21, per CEO of OneAmerica Life Insurance. Not due to covid, per the CEO.
Also per the CEO, a10% rise would be 1 in 200 year event. No # for 4X that, all at once.
Some portion could be delayed care for chronically ill, but the rise correlates suspiciously with vax push last summer, in which case I expected the jump to continue, if not get worse as sheeple booster their immune systems into oblivion.
Yes, your point is very salient. The vax does seem to kill a lot of people in ways that seem "unrelated" to a lot of people, even us.
For example, my wife's friend's ex-husband died suddenly from cardiac arrest while visiting his friend and drinking tea, three months after getting vaxxed. It seems unrelated, and perhaps it is unrelated, or perhaps it is related.
I wrote an article about that story, I actually fact checked it.
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/fact-checking-dr-malone-deaths-up
I know. Everyone thinks I’m crazy but any “odd” death I tend to attribute to the shots.
Yes, any time I hear of an 'odd' death -- even a few that are more 'regular'--the question pops into my mind (at times also out of my mouth). "Was he/she jabbed?" I know of many cases of double & triple jabbed who have contracted the disease these last few weeks, some young, some old, some with more serious cases than others. Also, I know of one lady who has no feeling in her face and another who has lost feeling in the entire left side of her body! All of these random cases clearly have something to add to the vax narrative. Then there are the two or three who developed heart problems after being jabbed but at a sufficient interval of time to be due to other factors. And to think that my circle of friends is rather reduced, especially these last 2 years!
I know of 7 vaxxed people. 2 died within 1 week of the shots. 1 developed inoperable brain cancer. 1 has gone into weird mental state. 1 retired shortly after vax, but seems too young to be retired. Only 2 were normal.
Scary and disturbing, I know one person who died outright after vax, have some suspicions about health of another person that I do not want to discuss, plus the above case.
I also know one person who died a few days after his 2nd jab. Healthy, 39 year old man, dropped dead of a heart attack while at work. Autopsy showed heart inflammation, but family refused to see the correlation, and it wasn’t reported.
Also, just got a call a few days ago from a good friend. Both he and his daughter just found out they have cancer. Both double vaxxed and boosted. Said they were stunned at their diagnoses. Both previously healthy. Refuse to even contemplate a correlation.
Could you get them to talk and find what cancer and what type? I am collecting this info. Try to get them to talk by being thoughtful and accepting and sympathetic.
My friend, a male aged 75 (but extremely fit and in good health) has bladder cancer and possibly also in liver. Was supposed to undergo more testing a few days ago. His daughter, age 50, has colon cancer. Just found recently through routine colonoscopy. She is especially very health-conscious, fit and trim.
It's also highly significant that people dying shortly after the jab are not being autopsied (as far as I know). This goes against standard medical practice of the last 50 years or so.
So you wouldn't recommend it then, Mary? :)
Almost certainly some of that was due to covid, as a higher percentage of people under 65 died in the Delta wave.
It is very difficult to decipher vax effect vs Covid effect, because some persons had both Covid and vaccinations, or had Covid without being diagnosed. Covid may indeed increase post-Covid mortality, I am actually reading about it now:
https://twitter.com/IanRicksecker/status/1478611671429967875
He wrote a lot and I read about a third of what he referenced. He did an amazing job compiling a lot of info, but it is not yet certain how conclusive all of this is, but it is definitely something to think about.
The one article he referenced, showing higher cardiovascular risk to the Covid-recovered,
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268448v1.full-text
actually showed LOWED all cause mortality among covid recovered. It shows how hard it is to compare apples with apples especially with Covid-Free vax-free, Covid-recovered vax-free, Covid-free vaxed, Covid-recovered unvaxed, age confounding etc.
==========
Secondary outcome: all-cause mortality analyses
During median 190 days at risk, there were 32 all-cause deaths: 10 deaths in the COVID-19(+) cohort and 22 in the COVID-19(-) cohort. Among COVID-19(+) cohort participants, the incidence rate of the all-cause death was 41.6 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up, in comparison to 45.1 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up among COVID-19(-) cohort participants. There was no statistically significant incidence rate difference (−3.4; 95% CI from - 35.4 to 28.5 per 1,000 person-years of follow-up; p=0.855) in the all-cause death between two cohorts.
In Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, there were no differences in all-cause mortality between COVID-19(-) and COVID-19(+) cohorts (Figure 4). In unadjusted Cox regression analysis, COVID-19(+) exposure was associated with non-significant risk (Table 3). Notably, the proportional-hazards assumption was violated for all Cox regression models with the all-cause death outcome.
Kirsch links to 8 large studies linking vaxes to increased cases & deaths:
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-big-data-study-of-145-countries
I think he was saying the 40% rise wasn't due to covid. That covid deaths were flat or maybe rose a small percent. But nothing like the 4 in 800 years happening all at once.
Let's say Bob dies of cardiac arrest on Nov 1.
Is that because of Covid Bob had in March?
Or is that because of the vax he took in May?
Or is that because of breakthrough Covid he had in September?
Or is that because Bob likes Cheetos more than treadmills?
It is VERY hard to decipher.
It depends in part on what autopsy shows.
The cardiac deaths I'm reading & hearing about happen within a couple weeks of jab.
But the damage from jabs is cumulative, so I expect all cause mortality, including cardiac, to continue to rise.
Covid can also cause cumulative damage if your body is unable to completely clear the virus or the spikes. Studies of long covid patients found spikes in vesicles in their monocytes as long as 15 months after "recovery" from covid.
Otoh, the jabs damage the immune system, possibly permanently, making you more susceptible to all kinds of diseases, including. covid.
yes, the faster to clear the virus, the better
"But the damage from jabs is cumulative", especially if people keeping on taking the boosters.
Denmark, very highly vaxxed, and got an early start on Omicron, does seem to be supporting the idea that Omicron is reasonably mild, but extremely transmissable. Hospitaliation and ICU cases are currently at levels approaching the peak in Jan 2021. Of course number of cases is much higher, so the % of severe illness is lower. 7-day average deaths is around half what it was at the peak last January. But then daily cases peaked at around 3700 per day, currently it's at 26000 cases per day. So cases are x 7 but deaths are x 0.5. It seems as if Omicron may bring about a similar number of deaths and severe illness as Delta, via much higher case rate, but also much lower severity of illness.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/denmark/
https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts
Clearly the impact on hospital treatment could be huge unless they allow positive tested doctors and nurses to work. Otherwise hopsitals would suffer such large staff shortages that deaths and severe illness would be even higher. Overall, the impact of Omicron is going to be very significant indeed if Denmark is anything to go by. In Portugal though, with similarly high vax rates, although cases are spiking, deaths are far lower than the Delta peak. So it seems to behave differently in different countries. I suspect though that Portugal was drastically overstating its "covid" deaths in Jan 2021, and maybe under reporting them now. In these highly vaxxed countries, its better for them to downplay illness and deaths, otherwise they face the embarrassment of admitting that vaccines are useless
Deaths in Portugal will surge. There is a big delay with this...South Africa still has deaths rising, and their cases peaked over 3 weeks ago.
Yes, exactly, plus two days ago there was a big news from S.A. that they "found" 476 more deaths attributed to previous weeks. SA deaths are still rising, despite cases peaking around Dec 18.
The 476 deaths that were announced, I believe were not added to previous deaths in worldometer, they were just "announced" but did not end up in official statistics.
https://www.polity.org.za/article/covid-19-south-africa-adds-500-earlier-fatalities-to-confirmed-death-toll-after-audit-2022-01-07
It is possible that S.A. upset about the travel ban shaped their statistics and messaging in some way. The travel ban was definitely stupid, but so was the reaction to it, if true.
I think you have an epistemological problem. To wit: until now the modus operandi was to exaggerate the danger of covid. Hospitals paid extra for covid patients, fiddling statistics to scare the peasants into vaccinating a.s.o. For whatever purpose... So if this m.o. is still in place then the numbers you are citing just reflects the scaremongering of the powers that be. That is hospitalisations of people with broken limbs that just happen to also have omikron. I think that is very likely. Of course - as Omikron ist undoubtedly very infectious - the number of "hospitalisations" will just go through the roof. - On the other hand - if Omicron is as bad or worse than Delta and as undoubtedly the vaccinated get infected more - then the powers that be have every reason to downplay the numbers. I don´t know which is true and I believe we will find out only - and if at all - in a few month. By the way: I am German but lived in Russia in the Nineties. I fell in love with Russia but learned Russian on the street. So I used a lot of MAT and must admit it is my favorite language. Unfortunately you cannot use it in polite society. So I took to saying yolkipalki. Later I lived in Poland and as Poles understand Russian mat I kept using yolkipalki. So that is the nickname I acquired in Poland and I have been using it ever since.
I started typing a long comment and it disappeared. Anyway, Dr Fauci and Lauterbach want us to believe that "Omicron is mild", because Omicron is representing a total failure of vaccinating as a policy, and it being "mild" kinds of makes this failure to be less important.
In reality Omicron does not care about my opinion, Dr Fauci opinion, or anyone else's opinion, it will simply infect and kill as many people as it is good for.
Saying that "Omicron is mild" because of opposition to lockdowns, is like generals fighting the last war, or fighting windmills. Lockdowns are not even attempted where I am, except that the libtard neighboring county decided to deny gyms and restaurants to the vaccine-free. That will, no doubt, totally stop Omicron in that dumpster of a county, haha.
A very interesting development in New York:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-combating-covid-19-131
They are suddenly distinguishing people which test positive but are hospitalised for other reasons from people who are hospitalised because of Corona. For NYC that means the numbers are about half of what they were before. Evidently they are running scared.
Yes. Well said.
Deaths are still in the plateau of the pre-Omicron trend, in the US, for the moment there is virtually zero Omicron excess deaths. I think your model violates that significantly by now.
My model predicts 1,404 Omicron deaths for yesterday, Dec 7. We had 2,025 deaths from all Covid, including Omicron and Delta. How many deaths yesterday were from Delta, is anyone's guess. Before Omicron started, deaths were at around 1,000 per day.
Hitting 600k deaths before end of March, is possible even if Omicron is 3x less deadly than Delta, as long as the expected number of peopl egets infected.
My predictions really are not biased for very high mortality. They mostly expect a large number of infections, and a very mediocre mortality, and issues with hospitals around the end of January.
US deaths will rise significantly this coming week. Already seeing this is UK, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere.
Yep, I said the same thing in my article, this and the following week will be the time when deaths show up.
Keep in mind that delta is declining and so are covid deaths from Delta
And your 0.8% death rate is vastly too high for any variant let alone Omicron.
Cases between Sep 2 and Nov 2: 47061541-40576367=6485174
Deaths between Sep 3 and Nov 3: 778285-676663 = 101622
Delta Case Fatality Rate = 6485174/101622 = 1.57%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
If Omicron CFR is 4 times less, it will hit my lower bound of 600k deaths by the end of March
But you're assuming these headline stats are remotely accurate and they're simply not b/c of the false positive catastrophe that I've been highlighting, which is the "original sin" that affects all parts of the pandemic surveillance chain data. This is really where you should be focusing your efforts.
You are not wrong at all, but I want to work with the numbers I have. I cannot make every US resident take a perfect test every day, reported to me within a minute.
I suggest you look around the world at when covid cases surged, and excess deaths. You will find a very strong correlation. It is not a conspiracy - there has been a very real and deadly pandemic happening.
It correlates b/c it's all part of the surveillance data chain that starts with the "original sin" of defining a "case" as only a positive test result and then the vast majority of those test positives being false positives. "Covid hospitalization" and "Covid deaths" are also defined generally as relying only on a positive test result. We summarize the entire data chain in this piece: https://tamhunt.medium.com/how-covid-19-stats-are-grossly-exaggerated-a-brief-summary-of-the-arguments-53a5b4237c4c
Wasting your time on a paid-up agent. "... there has been a very real and deadly pandemic happening ..." should have clued you in.
How would cases effect excess deaths? Talking all cause deaths here, not just covid.
You are pushing an agenda. Badly, and it shows.
I am following the facts. Some of you apparently don't like those.
Getting shit for your opinions is normal on the internet. That's not a reason NOT to have opinions.
I think that I also disagreed with you on some issues IIRC.
My only rule is that I never say anything that I know to be untrue.
You are following the agenda you have been assigned. Your task is to deflect from the damage caused by mass vaxxing, and you have paymasters. The only thing I cannot determine precisely is which lack-of-intelligence outfit you hail from.
If you're referring to me, yes my agenda is indeed to demonstrate that a very significant part of the perceived pandemic is based on a tsunami of false positives. Consult the references I provide for the details.
You are disagreeing with me a lot, and I must say that I greatly appreciate it.
It is so much better than have an echo chamber where everyone agrees. We have a lot of people and most of us, you included, share a lot of values.
But at the same time there are things that we do NOT agree on. This is normal and productive.
"If you're referring to me" is a bad start. Please pay attention to your notifications - they are clearly marked, and leave no doubt.
We've all criticized the way Covid deaths are counted ("from" v "with") and know that the way cases are even identified is riddled with fraud. So how do we know the new cases and deaths are definitely Omicron and due to Omicron? Aren't we applying double standards here?
You're completely ignoring false positives and the certainty that the vast majority of "Omicron cases" and "Covid cases" more generally are false positives. And you're still ignoring the directly related phenomenon of false "Covid hospitalizations" due to either false positives or only incidental positives. It is now widely acknowledged, even by Mr. Fauci himself, that large numbers of "Covid hospitalizations" are "with" not "from" Covid. And yet it is not yet widely acknowledged that the large majority of these data points are false positives.
Harvard Med School prof. Branch-Elliman explains the math in this piece: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-07-14/why-covid-19-screening-should-be-used-sparingly-in-schools
Tim Chives goes deeper in this piece: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability
I and my colleagues go even deeper here: https://www.authorea.com/users/61793/articles/527660-the-false-positive-paradox-and-the-risks-of-testing-asymptomatic-people-for-covid-19
We wrote a shorter version at BMJ here: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1411/rr
Webb and Osburn 2021 found 86% of pediatric "Covid hospitalizations" were not related to Covid or only minimally related: https://www.publications.aap.org/hospitalpediatrics/article-abstract/11/8/e133/179737/Characteristics-of-Hospitalized-Children-Positive?redirectedFrom=fulltext
And another study found 85% of a single UK hospital Covid cases were false positives: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7850182/
And our piece on the false positive catastrophe: https://tamhunt.medium.com/the-false-positive-catastrophe-that-results-from-widespread-covid-19-testing-fc6febac8689
In sum, until you get your head around the false positive catastrophe you're going to continue to be fundamentally misunderstanding what's going on here.
You are on target about false positives, especially when prevalence is low like in your BMJ article. But right now the prevalence is not low. It is high.
Even if we assume a sky high 2% active infection rate for Covid and a very generous 95% test specificity, we STILL get 80% or more false positives from screening programs.
This is a very common mistake. Prevalence has been very low throughout the pandemic and is STILL very low, probably no more than 1% active infection, which still results in the vast majority of test positives being false positives. Have you done the math? Please just play with the calculator a little. You of all people should understand this since you have a strong background in mathematics: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1411/rapid-responses
I get what you are saying. But when a test positive rate from rapid tests in a certain class is 20%, it is not because of a 1% false positive rate.
What you say is perfectly true, but as of now we have a perfect shitstorm of Omicron infecting just about everyone who did not have covid before.
What class has a 20% positivity rate with antigen tests? Antigen tests have an even higher false positive rate in some situations than PCR tests. Hawaii island where I live used to require an antigen test on arrival. Turns out that fully 93% of those positive test results (a small fraction of all those where tested) were in fact false positives when re-tested with a PCR test. And that pattern has persisted in many contexts.
It's more likely that the tsunami of omicron positive test results is in fact a tsunami of false positives for all of the reasons I've no mentioned many times to you.
If you agree that false positives are a problem, and you understand what this means, you wouldn't be saying what you're staying. The vast majority of test results being false positives is the original sin of the pandemic surveillance chain and undermines all Covid stats b/c they're all based on those dang tests -- and the "case definition" that defines almost for the first time in history a "case" as requiing only a positive test result rather than symptoms plus a positive test.
Exactly! Two years in, we still have no clear idea of how prevalent Covid really is, let alone how many died from it. We are basing all our theories on shifting sands.
As you note, its a simple model. The hospitalizations and deaths and cases will scare the heck out of a lot of people and the R rate will slow - lengthening the peak and also increasing the death rate by lengthening the time with a non-functional health care system.
Meanwhile, and contributing to overwhelming the health care system is the (very rapidly growing) vaccine illnesses. And without a functioning health care system even if you rate is too high, deaths will be magnified.
And also magnifying is that most of the PPE and treatment drugs (like IVM and HCQ - monoclonal us useless for Omicron) are sitting off Los Angeles not getting unloaded. Hospitals are already short. The magnified effect is a real unknown, too.
Great summary of our situation. My model has growth rate slowing constantly, as always happens.
but I think I recall it did not increase mortality at high hospitalization rates, i.e., adding a conservative -;) bias (note, not politically conservative) . . .
Yes, I decided not to model that, it would be too complicated for me and there is way too many unknowns regarding deaths.
Pieter Streicher of South Africa has been spot on for a long time about such things. If his estimate for London is correct, and we have comparable mortality here, it would be more like 13,000 deaths. A lot less than influenza. Which would mean Omicron is a safer (and more effective) "vaccine" than Pfizer's etc. https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1479874751594209288
I had a lot of polite and friendly Twitter discussions with Peter. I like him a lot. But his estimates are mistaken. The deaths in South Africa are still going up, even though cases crested around Dec 18. That's basically 4 weeks from Dec 18.