We do not want severe Omicron, but Omicron does not care
I would like to give a shout out to my vaccinated brothers and sisters for providing the requisite evolutionary pressure needed to drive more transmissible vaccine evading variants. You have been fantastic validators of the old Buddhist teachings: that any action taken will provide more of the initial mindset. Fearful you were. And fearful you are. And fearful is written in your future.
Thanks Igor for continuing to apply your curiosity and critical thinking to all that's occurring. I really appreciate it and find myself forced to think more carefully each time I read your work.
I appreciate your analysis taking into account the lag between symptoms / test positive and hospitalization. It is particularly important when the growth rate of cases is so high to take this into account.
I only want to suggest that given the very high transmissibility of omicron, hospitalization as a measure of disease severity is impacted by the very large #s of people testing positive while in the hospital. In those cases, hospitalization is incidental and the course of their omicron will hopefully be mild much of the time.
I saw in this post https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/23-of-recent-uk-covid-hospitalizations that 65% of UK hospitalizations tested positive after being admitted for other causes and the figure was 75% in Gauteng South Africa.
In SA you get put into hospital if the MD judges that to be necessary, and only then. Therefore, numbers of patients committed are much lower than in NY.
Another possibility is that there has been a decree that for safety's sake all suspected cases of the Xi-variant (called Omicron so not to offend the national socialist republic of China) shall be hospitalised.
Or it could be that spikeprotein-shots make you more susceptible/makes the infection worse if the virus overcomes the shot (assuming that the shot protects at all of course).
Or a lot of combinations, or something unknown or not thought of, or something unspoken (what's the use ratio per cap of Ivermectin in SA vs NY for instance, or the climte and weather - viruses likes clammy and damp and not too warm, right?).
In my country we have the usual fearmongering professional liars of the old media. "ICU admissions skyrocket! +30% in days!" Meaning an uptick from some 60 ICU beds filled, to 90. Out of potentially 11 000 000 people. And the official source the press uses is open to the public - said source clearly states that # of ICU bds filled is greater than # of patients, due to patients being moved between units a/o hospitals and thus the same patient potentially showing up multiple times.
But hey, first lesson of journalism? Never ruin a good story by checking facts...
Seems to me that it's definitely the arm poison doing people in.
Stats don't reflect the truth because it's always a case of 'garbage in, garbage out' and there's no "truthful" stats on adverse reactions etc.
That means all speculation using "their data" is mostly just spinning your wheels.
Only when a piece of data is essentially irrefutable can it be relied upon for any meaningful analysis and this is exceedingly rare. In fact when such data does slip out it's usually an accident by the powers that be.
So the only question now is who begins to actually die off first and therefore reveal the mystery that is currently before us.
If us "UN"vaxxed troublemakers begin to die off in huge numbers first (for real and not just propaganda) then we'll know "official viral theory" as taught for the past century was accurate (which will be a shock to me for sure but at this point, whatever) and so the vax likely served as a spike tolerance building therapy.
The purpose would be of course to induce a Marek like scenario that takes care of all of us troublemakers and non-compliant types first.
That'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of a cool 20% of the population.
The remaining population will continue to comply their way into 'suicide by tyranny' until their numbers are dramatically reduced as well but it will be far too late for them to do anything about it even if they were so inclined.
In the meantime they'll be ruled under complete and total police state conditions every single moment of the day.
The other scenario (which so far seems to be the one actually playing out, was long predicted by us noncompliant troublemakers, and would be infinitely more "controllable" due to the victims being physically injected instead of 'viral spread' etc) is that the "vaxxed" begin to die off in huge numbers first.
The panic like urgency by ALL of the powers that be would also seem to suggest this is most likely because they need everyone to take the arm poison before the die-off begins in an undeniable way.
Otherwise it would be like Jim Jones trying to get the last 20% of holdouts to drink the koolaid AFTER they just watched the other 80% drop dead.
What is unlikely is that any of the "official narratives" are true or accurate and so if it's coming from official sources then you can almost check that off as where NOT to look until such time as the evidence is overwhelming and essentially verifies itself.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
I can hope your analysis is off in terms of how serious these hospitalizations are. The average stay would help in understanding. Looking at your data, Omicron does not seem like a seasonal common cold where people can stay in bed for a da or two. So what symptoms get these people to hospital? If the vast majority were vaccinated that really would be a sign of a severely trashed immune system. If so, the authorities clearly were ignoring Geert Vanden Bossche (https://mobile.twitter.com/gvdbossche?lang=en) who predicted all of this a year ago.
Thanks for this article. I appreciate getting your perspective on Omicron. I read some Tweets from nurses saying that some hospitals are dangerously understaffed. I know three vaccinated people with various infections, my boosted dad just got out of the hospital fighting three; urinary tract infection, cellulitis and strep (he will be on IV antibiotics for a month). My boosted neighbor has an outbreak of herpes and her daughter strep. A boosted friend with a new cancer diagnosis. I can't help but think these are all signs of their weakened inmate immunity. If so, Omicron would hit these people harder of course. 😔
One important context deserves emphasis: the number of ICU admits is rising much more slowly than non-ICU admits, and the relative increase of ICU to non-ICU admits is lower than in the previous waves.
This tracks with a Goldman Sachs survey that found a much lower incidence of COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation for Omicron than for previous waves. The Goldman take was the use of mechanical ventilation was a better tracking metric as it was less susceptible to manipulation.
The other encouraging data point is the lack of media stories about Omicron deaths. For better or worse, the media narrative is reconciling itself to Omicron being largely less lethal than Delta.
Time will tell the tale. If Omicron follows the rapid rise and rapid fall in cases that New York saw in the first wave, Omicron will peak shortly. This appears to have been the case in South Africa which has had declining cases for a couple of weeks now.
What about accidental covid hospitalisations? Is there a way to look at icu beds or those on a ventilator as an alternative metric other than hospitalisations altogether. Hospitals are finding a lot of covid infected in admission for something else so seeing who is having it more severely might yield a different result.
NYC 7-day moving avg seems to have been at 7k cases per day a week ago. The curves for a cases a week ago and hospitalizations today look pretty close in 3 month view.
7k cases per day is higher than the 6k peak in January, so the Omicron admissions rate seems the same. Discharge seems faster based on the currently hospitalized charts. But this could be just because there was less of a slow build, so there's no backlog of long-(hospitalization)-haulers. Additionally, the summer/Delta hospitalizations/case waves were lower when pegged to January in most regions (due to severe efficacy among the vaccinated holding up despite infection efficacy failing), so it's odd on the face of things that NYC suddenly matches last winter.
Maybe they're just cooking the books to promote the passport. NY is basically a Science Theocracy Dictatorship so the official numbers should come with a grain of salt.
Thanks for the update Igor.
This is extraordinarily concerning. We should have updates from the UK today, but I'd imagine there'll be reporting delays because of Christmas; we might have to wait a few days to get a clear picture of what's going on here.
Lots of my neighbours unfortunately bought into the govt narrative. Over Xmas they kept knocking asking for advice. Just been boosted last week, Dr has me on antibiotics, I can’t cope, I can’t get through to 999 or 111. What can I do? I felt helpless. All I could advise them was to take a cab to hospital. This is happening now
Vax is the bioweapon which was designed to create never ending "Variants" and kill, injure, sterilise as many as possible. Premeditated Genocide. Check this out: The Truth About Safety of mRNA Vaccines Found in The European Medicines Agency's Document Titled "Comirnaty (COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine) Risk Management Plan" https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-safety-of-mrna-vaccines
If they keep mass vaccinating this will never end..
“I might be guilty of having accidentally dialed up the drama”.....no might be about it...you are guilty.
An archive of the latest DuckDuckGo search for "Omicron variant deaths".
As the search results show, we see a lot of media hype about "first" Omicron deaths but no headlines indicating media reporting on a surge in COVID mortality.
While this is essentially anecdotal evidence and does not lend itself to statistical analysis, that Omicron mortality has not yet become a staple of the media narrative is quite telling, and suggests the variant is sufficiently mild as to not provide the deaths necessary to sustain a narrative of lethality vis-a-vis Delta.
With greatly reduced ICU admits and little to no mortality being reported, if these trends continue the notion of an ongoing pandemic will become much more difficult to sustain in the media and the rationales for lockdowns and mandates much less credible.