As the ERoIE of fossil fuels is in decline global population must follow its decent. At some point the energy curve will flatten to a new equilibrium. Only when nearing this flexure point will it be safe for humanity to start re-breeding at replacement rates of 2,0-2,1.
Hoping that the energy descent rate will not be steeper than 1,6-1,7,…
As the ERoIE of fossil fuels is in decline global population must follow its decent. At some point the energy curve will flatten to a new equilibrium. Only when nearing this flexure point will it be safe for humanity to start re-breeding at replacement rates of 2,0-2,1.
Hoping that the energy descent rate will not be steeper than 1,6-1,7, we could safely reach this new steady-state-carrying-capacity level in about two centuries. At, I guess, 20%-25% of our current numbers. The more we deviate from this descending energy curve the more people will simply be pushed off the population curve into famine and war over these resources. Why would we want to ignore this unfortunately rather realistic scenario. Unlike degrowth* a carefully managed temporary population reduction is I believe the best thing humanity can wish for.
As the ERoIE of fossil fuels is in decline global population must follow its decent. At some point the energy curve will flatten to a new equilibrium. Only when nearing this flexure point will it be safe for humanity to start re-breeding at replacement rates of 2,0-2,1.
Hoping that the energy descent rate will not be steeper than 1,6-1,7, we could safely reach this new steady-state-carrying-capacity level in about two centuries. At, I guess, 20%-25% of our current numbers. The more we deviate from this descending energy curve the more people will simply be pushed off the population curve into famine and war over these resources. Why would we want to ignore this unfortunately rather realistic scenario. Unlike degrowth* a carefully managed temporary population reduction is I believe the best thing humanity can wish for.
* https://medium.com/@gl-10190/debunking-degrowth-part-ii-aded18d44652
You might want to post this comment into a more recent article on this topic:
https://www.igor-chudov.com/p/can-population-declines-be-beneficial
will do, thanks for your suggestion