True, and I agree that data is still preliminary. But my general confidence (while always being open to new data) comes from my understanding of the false positive catastrophe and the related massive exaggeration surrounding Covid hospitalizations and deaths. Downgrade all of it by about 90% and that gives you a much better picture of ac…
True, and I agree that data is still preliminary. But my general confidence (while always being open to new data) comes from my understanding of the false positive catastrophe and the related massive exaggeration surrounding Covid hospitalizations and deaths. Downgrade all of it by about 90% and that gives you a much better picture of actual dynamics. That said, I am monitoring the ADE trends and read Bossche regularly. The coincidence of the summer wave and vaccination seems a bit too good to not involve something weird, whether it's actually ADE or not, something like it. I am staying tuned but I do urge you again to read our in depth essay that supports my suggestion that all Covid stats should be downgraded by about 90%.
I just wrote another article based on today's data from Denmark, with twelve hundred cases and 18 deaths. Lots of data that allows for some preliminary calculations. And Denmark is probably relatively trustworthy.
Here's the WHO case definition, which requires only a frickin antigen test positive for a "confirmed case," as of the August 2020 update. Antigen tests are horribly inaccurate, especially in screening testing of course, where the Positive Predictive Value can easily drop to 1% or less (which means there's a 99% chance that a positive test result is a false positive).
Are you starting to see how much exaggeration there is in the whole pandemic surveillance chain?
Respectfully disagree -- almost all nations, including Denmark, define a "case" as a positive test only, no symptoms required. Ditto for deaths. So the 90% downgrade also pertains here as it does for almost every nation in the world b/c most have taken WHO's advice on these definitions as just described. Here's my in depth look at these issues. This is not just US. It's basically global. https://tamhunt.medium.com/how-covid-19-stats-are-grossly-exaggerated-a-brief-summary-of-the-arguments-53a5b4237c4c
True, and I agree that data is still preliminary. But my general confidence (while always being open to new data) comes from my understanding of the false positive catastrophe and the related massive exaggeration surrounding Covid hospitalizations and deaths. Downgrade all of it by about 90% and that gives you a much better picture of actual dynamics. That said, I am monitoring the ADE trends and read Bossche regularly. The coincidence of the summer wave and vaccination seems a bit too good to not involve something weird, whether it's actually ADE or not, something like it. I am staying tuned but I do urge you again to read our in depth essay that supports my suggestion that all Covid stats should be downgraded by about 90%.
I just wrote another article based on today's data from Denmark, with twelve hundred cases and 18 deaths. Lots of data that allows for some preliminary calculations. And Denmark is probably relatively trustworthy.
https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Surveillance_Case_Definition-2020.2
Here's the WHO case definition, which requires only a frickin antigen test positive for a "confirmed case," as of the August 2020 update. Antigen tests are horribly inaccurate, especially in screening testing of course, where the Positive Predictive Value can easily drop to 1% or less (which means there's a 99% chance that a positive test result is a false positive).
Are you starting to see how much exaggeration there is in the whole pandemic surveillance chain?
Respectfully disagree -- almost all nations, including Denmark, define a "case" as a positive test only, no symptoms required. Ditto for deaths. So the 90% downgrade also pertains here as it does for almost every nation in the world b/c most have taken WHO's advice on these definitions as just described. Here's my in depth look at these issues. This is not just US. It's basically global. https://tamhunt.medium.com/how-covid-19-stats-are-grossly-exaggerated-a-brief-summary-of-the-arguments-53a5b4237c4c