Predict future hospitalizations and deaths with your assumptions
I'm an attorney not a statistician. But ... Isn't computer modeling to predict hospitalizations and deaths how we got into this hysteria in the first place? I'm looking at you, Neil Ferguson.
It was exactly a spreadsheet like this that led to my awakening in April 2020. Every week I would also list the numbers found on Worldometer and for many countries, the figures seemed to line up. But as I live in Japan I also tracked Japan's figures, and lo and behold, they didn't add up. So I started to question the whole narrative.
I hope your getting Bill’s support...he pays well.
“Ferguson co-founded the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, based at Imperial, in 2008. It is the leading body advising national governments on pathogen outbreaks. It gets tens of millions of dollars in annual funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation…”
Gates largess also included a separate, unrelated grant of $79 million to Imperial College in March. Gates has been the foremost, highest-visibility proponent of vaccinations for COVID and the founder of the initiative “The Decade of Vaccines.” One of the talents tapped by Gates to drive the initiative is Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Johan Giesecke, the former chief scientist for the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has called Ferguson’s model:
““the most influential scientific paper” in memory. He also says it was, sadly, “one of the most wrong.””
You may go down in history as the new Neil Ferguson.
May God Bless You, Igor. You do an amazing amount of research and put so much effort, time, and critical thinking into your posts. I look forward to them. In an earlier post (yesterday) I wrote that I didn’t think Omnicron would be as deadly as Delta. And yet, your reasoning that it might be is compelling. It kinda haunts me. Medical Ppl on the ground in S Africa insist it isn’t deadly... and yet, what to make of the hospitalization rates? Do we know what form of testing they use? Comorbidities in those hospitalized? I remain hopeful but skeptical and uneasy. We haven’t yet had a case in my hospital but our weather has been unseasonably warm. Thanks for all you do for us.
Data is now overwhelmingly showing extremely mild symptoms from COVID. Basically cold symptoms. And in many/most “cases” it probably is just a cold due to false positives.
So at this point I would strongly urge you to reconsider your worries about an omicron surge. The risk at this point is false positives and further “casedemic.” Not actual harm from the virus.
In other words you’re feeding the beast with your latest posts.
Great stuff - thank you... I put in the current IFR of 0.12% (which I know you think is low but just to bound it)... I get cumulative deaths of 100K for this wave peaking in mid Jan
So basically it seems like we have another month of hysteria, with the hysteria about to bring a world of pain to all of us...
(suggestion: adding cumulative deaths & hosps to the summary at the top might be useful)
GREAT STUFF! Thanks as always
Sweet! Thank you!
No sky is falling yet in SA, to the contrary: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/covid-is-over/comments
Interesting, thanks, I’ll download and have a go now. Will Omicron be more severe in highly vaccinated countries?
Igor, you have not thought this through! Or perhaps you have? Now anyone on the planet can happily plug in numbers picked from the air and generate 'predictions' to scare the shit out of the gullible population which at present is about 85%. Whheeeee! Now I can be a Neil Ferguson acolyte and propel the madness into 2030!
My biggest thought is the number of recovered seems to include those who were vax-first, then got covid. I don't think those people are as well off as pure-blood, covid first, no jab (the Chartruese). Plus, many people claim infections because of possibly faulty PCR tests.
This just deflates the prior infected and makes the hosp/death number higher.
By the way have you seen this article yet?
It is by Phillipe Lemoine and it's a long read (here is a very good summary write up about it by Noah Carl which I'm sure will encourage anyone to read the full article: https://dailysceptic.org/2021/11/30/population-structure-and-the-cyclical-pattern-of-epidemic-waves/ ) and it is incredible in how it seemingly better models what we have seen and demonstrates how what we have seen in the covid waves could easily be interpreted by many current models as lockdowns having an effect when in fact the effect was negligible or zero (he specifically generated a wave with his model in which no lockdown occurred and asked a different model, one like what many mainstream advisors and governments use, to estimate the effect of a lockdown the he told the model occurred on a particular date and the mainstream model came back to estimate that lockdown reduced cases by 40% in that wave. Which obviously is not correct since the wave he generated specifically didn't have any lockdowns.
Don't know if you can make enough of Lemoine's article to be able to incorporate his workings into your model. But hope it would be of interest and of help for you.
The problem is using a SIR model. Covid doesn't appear to follow SIR very well. It appears to be more like a SIR(S) model, with a 'superspreader' at the end. The important aspect then is the proportion of the population that are likely to be a superspreader and the delay between infection and becoming a superspreader. Each covid wave continues until the number of potential superspreaders drops below a threshold (essentially related to the herd immunity threshold). (it has been suggested that the impact of the vaccines is to increase the risk of being a superspreader -- thus you see no specific increase in transmission in the vaccinated population if you investigate at an individual level, but you definitely see much higher case loads in those countries that have high vaccination rates).
Now, I suppose that's a nuance, because we will get an Omicron wave and we will have massive levels of hospitalisations. Hospitals are already busy (not from covid, something else) and healthcare won't be able to cope -- thus we'll see deaths in many purely because of lack of effective healthcare. So, I'd say IRO 100k deaths is rather likely...
Just a question, I'm a non believer in viruses infectivity so how do I compensate for these?
Days of Infectiousness 5
Implied Recovery Rate 0.2
Do I just take them from official sources if they say that they exist. Or they standard across this virus of Chronus?
Big thank you btw.
Igor appears to be vindicated:
Modelling suggests rapid spread of Omicron in England but same severity as Delta